January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

12Z EPS through Day 7.  Some good hits and some misses…

The overall snow mean for that timeframe clearly highlights the window that we've been given

[nj2va]

One of the ways to tell a good pattern is coming up is by consistently getting fantasty-land chances on the OP runs, which keeps showing up on almost every model fun.  This wasn’t happening last month (and it wasn’t even close).

[Bob Chill]

The best analysis I can give right now has to do with the people here and not the upcoming upper level setup... The "personality" on winter wx that showed up right before the Monday storm hasn't gone anywhere. Sneaky busy flow has the potential to go from apparent nothingness to wtf omg then back to nothingness and repeat ad nauseum in the mid-long range. Just let time pass and let it all happen until some sort of consensus shows up. We can easily get a big storm out of nowhere or have what seems to be a long track evaporate in a blink.  We simply don't have the tech and tools yet to make real sense of the flow and shortwaves beyond 3-4 days in this regime. 

For me, all I care about is the "general idea" of busy flow with highs and lows in good enough places in the longwave pattern.. Then just pass time until one becomes "real". Sure doesn't look like a 1 and done small window to me. So if one fails, it doesn't matter nearly as much. Heck, maybe a fail becomes a beast 50/50. Not all fails are bad and multiple chances seem almost certain at this point. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The best analysis I can give right now has to do with the people here and not the upcoming upper level setup... The "personality" on winter wx that showed up right before the Monday storm hasn't gone anywhere. Sneaky busy flow has the potential to go from apparent nothingness to wtf omg then back to nothingness and repeat ad nauseum in the mid-long range. Just let time pass and let it all happen until some sort of consensus shows up. We can easily get a big storm out of nowhere or have what seems to be a long track evaporate in a blink.  We simply don't have the tech and tools yet to make real sense of the flow and shortwaves beyond 3-4 days in this regime. 

For me, all I care about is the "general idea" of busy flow with highs and lows in good enough places in the longwave pattern.. Then just pass time until one becomes "real". Sure doesn't look like a 1 and done small window to me. So if one fails, it doesn't matter nearly as much. Heck, maybe a fail becomes a beast 50/50. Not all fails are bad and multiple chances seem almost certain at this point. 

Good post.  It’s pretty much where I’m at. It’s a lot of shit flying around and models prob won’t get key features right at long leads. 

[LeesburgWx]

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

The overall snow mean for that timeframe clearly highlights the window that we've been given

This is pretty good signal, no? I mean it's 180 hours out but that is a hell of a lot closer than 280-384 hours out.

[87storms]

The trough axis has been generally too far east on the model runs. However, there’s a difference between a miller B from a ns dominant system or clipper versus one where there’s a southern stream component involved (more of a hybrid). With the latter we can still score from overrunning prior to an epic dry slot.  Hiking through gambrill/watershed yesterday (catoctin blue and knucklebuster for those familiar with the area) made me realize it doesn’t take much to turn things into winter here. It was pure powder. With that said, I’d accept a hecs too.

[SnowenOutThere]

32 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The trof axis is way to far east for our Lattitude.  We need it to get out of the way or it's going to screw up the next few opportunities. 

If it's far enough west to hit New England it's going to screw us for later in the weekend.

So if the Friday storm gets close to hitting it messes up another potential storm around Monday which has more potential? Just don’t really see a reason to root against a potential snowstorm.

[SabreAce33]

Bob's on the money, no surprise.  I'll be checking in every day or two and not sweating it.  The overall pattern is better than we've seen in a long while and I'm happy to be patient and wait for the stars (or jet ) to align in our favor.  I honestly expected nothing more than a couple of small events this year given the La Nina, so I'm happy with whatever comes and pleasantly surprised we got some decent snow already. 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

One of the ways to tell a good pattern is coming up is by consistently getting fantasty-land chances on the OP runs, which keeps showing up on almost every model fun.  This wasn’t happening last few years (and it wasn’t even close).

Fixed, lol

[Yeoman]

58 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Everyone bashing the MLK Friday/Saturday system.

 

12z Euro: I’m bout to pull a pro gamer move

Don't worry - school will still be closed

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Yeah - every run it's amazing to watch all the little vort pieces and such just screaming around the CONUS. Feels like a week where stuff is going to tease us on certain runs and be completely different on the next. Chaotic. 

I mentioned similar to luvr yesterday. We’re going to see big storms pop up on guidance and then disappear, only for others to pop up two runs later with the “new” threats being on completely different days.

Someone is going to get smacked - maybe multiple times - before this runs its course. It could well be us or we could whiff completely (which I doubt), but the pattern is ripe.

[jviper]

It’s winter. 

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

So does your avatar/profile pic choices

Don't be jealous

[Scraff]

My own personal mindset on the upcoming pattern:

Unfortunately I missed the dueling 2010 beasts. Damn kids and the Disney World trip! LOL. I remember being on my BlackBerry (while waiting in line for Its a Small World) scrolling our forums and just dying inside as the excitement level was off the charts. We got home the end of that week to see the apocalyptic snow bombs that went off. Thank god my neighbors shoveled us a walkway to my house. It was effing nuts. Anyway—the point of my dumb story—I’ve been saying and praying since then that I hoped to get a second chance to live that all over again. So I’m rooting for dueling HECS damn it!  That’s it. Hope you enjoyed wasting your time reading this stupid non-meteorological post. 

[Chris78]

54 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So if the Friday storm gets close to hitting it messes up another potential storm around Monday which has more potential? Just don’t really see a reason to root against a potential snowstorm.

Friday is a very long shot. Even if it gets close it has heartbreak - think  boxing day storm written all over it. 

If that storm hangs around to the east of us for too long it will run interference and mess up the next couple of opportunities. 

Someone else could explain it more eloquently than me but we need that storm to get lost or move up into the 50/50 location to give room for the next storm to amplify.

 

[LeesburgWx]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Friday is a very long shot. Even if it gets close it has heartbreak - think  boxing day storm written all over it. 

If that storm hangs around to the east of us for too long it will run interference and mess up the next couple of opportunities. 

Someone else could explain it more eloquently than me but we need that storm to get lost or move up into the 50/50 location to give room for the next storm to amplify.

 

So we usually complain it’s the storm after the storm on models but now we are rooting for the storm after the storm… 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So we usually complain it’s the storm after the storm on models but now we are rooting for the storm after the storm… 

We've got 4 days to get the trof axis moved 500 miles west.

Edit : The longer it hangs around off the east coast anything else will get shredded to oblivion. 

[stormtracker]

I’m rooting for Jan 1987

[jewell2188]

Is this the year of last minute adjustments to give the area a decent storm?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

One of the ways to tell a good pattern is coming up is by consistently getting fantasty-land chances on the OP runs, which keeps showing up on almost every model fun.  This wasn’t happening last month (and it wasn’t even close).

But it snowed twice within 5 days and neither event was modeled out past 96 hrs. It's all rainbows and unicorns on guidance looking far ahead....until it all falls apart in a fiery blowtorch inferno under 5 days. I love tracking a MECS for 10+ days....well, honestly it's exhausting by the time the storm gets here. I would rather a ho hum pattern where we sneakily back into several modest events than a carrot dangling and pulled away at the last minute. But thats me. But like any gambler will tell you, you need to play big to win big...  so there's that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

51 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Friday is a very long shot. Even if it gets close it has heartbreak - think  boxing day storm written all over it. 

If that storm hangs around to the east of us for too long it will run interference and mess up the next couple of opportunities. 

Someone else could explain it more eloquently than me but we need that storm to get lost or move up into the 50/50 location to give room for the next storm to amplify.

 

It only takes 1 teleconnection to be out of whack to throw the pattern of chaos into the abyss. If that coastal gyre mucks up what appears to be a decent stretch coming up, they will need to reopen the panic room before month's end.

[87storms]

we're due for a clipper which is starting to show up more consistently next weekend.  still too far north, but it's there.

[dseagull]

1 hour ago, Yeoman said:

Don't worry - school will still be closed

Hey, if we close for a sniffle, we shall close for a whiffle...lmao...Poor kids 

[dseagull]

55 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m rooting for Jan 1987

Amen. My first memorable storm and the year I became a merchant mariner. 

[dseagull]

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But it snowed twice within 5 days and neither event was modeled out past 96 hrs. It's all rainbows and unicorns on guidance looking far ahead....until it all falls apart in a fiery blowtorch inferno under 5 days. I love tracking a MECS for 10+ days....well, honestly it's exhausting by the time the storm gets here. I would rather a ho hum pattern where we sneakily back into several modest events than a carrot dangling and pulled away at the last minute. But thats me. But like any gambler will tell you, you need to play big to win big...  so there's that.

2009 and 2010 delivered those sharp upticks in guidance that satisfy the inner weenie even in old timers.    Call it nostalgia, but those were the systems that reminded me of somewhat elicited surprise in the 80s and 90s, because that was what we had to work with, model wise.  

 

I'd go back to the days without smart phones and reliable internet in a second.  The element of surprise and lack of communication was a beautiful thing. 

 

...memories are a wonderful thing.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

2009 and 2010 delivered those sharp upticks in guidance that satisfy the inner weenie even in old timers.    Call it nostalgia, but those were the systems that reminded me of somewhat elicited surprise in the 80s and 90s, because that was what we had to work with, model wise.  

 

I'd go back to the days without smart phones and reliable internet in a second.  The element of surprise and lack of communication was a beautiful thing. 

 

...memories are a wonderful thing.  

Dare I say....I kinda miss TWC circa 1987-1995ish. Actual mets, some extremely extremely advanced mets (Stu Ostro, John Hope, Paul Kocin, Dave Schwartz, etc etc). Actually delved into atmospheric sciences and taught and took time to explain and weren't just on camera celebs. I know that outlet tends to get ripped by weenies near and far....but that was a much simpler time and we were at the mercy of the long range forecast they did once or twice an hour. Good stuff. The coverage of the 93 and 96 storms on there....epic.....just epic.  

[Jersey Andrew]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dare I say....I kinda miss TWC circa 1987-1995ish. Actual mets, some extremely extremely advanced mets (Stu Ostro, John Hope, Paul Kocin, Dave Schwartz, etc etc). Actually delved into atmospheric sciences and taught and took time to explain and weren't just on camera celebs. I know that outlet tends to get ripped by weenies near and far....but that was a much simpler time and we were at the mercy of the long range forecast they did once or twice an hour. Good stuff. The coverage of the 93 and 96 storms on there....epic.....just epic.  

1996 blizzard was the first real Internet storm. The old AOL dial up forecasts from SNONUT and PTRAVEL. I was a senior in high school and could not believe the 18-24 inches forecast but they certainly verified.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

1996 blizzard was the first real Internet storm. The old AOL dial up forecasts from SNONUT and PTRAVEL. I was a senior in high school and could not believe the 18-24 inches forecast but they certainly verified.

Damn....PTravel, there's a name i haven't heard in years 

[stormtracker]

GFS with that goddamn Atlantic winter hurricane. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It only takes 1 teleconnection to be out of whack to throw the pattern of chaos into the abyss. If that coastal gyre mucks up what appears to be a decent stretch coming up, they will need to reopen the panic room before month's end.

Honestly, man…dafuq are you going on about?