Vice-Regent Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, Wonderdog said: Are you saying that there is no way that the ocean storm could give us a decent hit? Isn't that a robust enough of a HP to keep the cold air supplied to us? Any additional amping of the flow will cause it to cutoff or cut through the interior CONUS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS says be patient. No storms through Friday. Nice fish storm there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, chris21 said: While very true, this pattern has already dropped ten inches of snow on dc one week into January. Different pattern. This 'transition has done us well. But there are no guarantees in the LR. Personally I think I would have rolled the dice with the certainty and kept the pattern. Hoping the big change pans out mid month and does everyone well in the snow dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 maybe hot take: idgaf about a potential window setting up a block. getting a storm > setting up a block for a future fantasy storm That said, Friday's storm looks pretty toast on all the ens. Weirder things could and have happened, IG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 My advice is not to sweat every 6 hour operational run yet for next weekend’s potential. WB 6Z GFS v. 12Z GFS makes the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yes. This. People rooting for the Friday /Saturday thing are focusing on the wrong storm. The Friday system I’m interested in is not the storm out in the ocean. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I can see the appeal, but the argument that I was making is that big storms seem to kick good patterns out of the area faster. Take a look at Jan 2016. Solid event, but 3 days later we're roasting and the snow is melting off fast. From a hobby perspective, 2013-14 will always be my favorite tracking winter unless it gets topped at some point. That year it all. Ice, snow, bay freeze, below zero, acceptable to exceptional snow totals each month from dec-bitter end of march, multiple types of events from all angles and dangles. I literally got sick of tracking in late March. Never thought it was possible. For that reason alone, it's my personal holy grail year of winter wx tracking in the mid atl. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: My advice is not to sweat every 6 hour operational run yet for next weekend’s potential. WB 6Z GFS v. 12Z GFS makes the point. Too late. 12z GFS is a total disaster. Boring for days followed by a monster storm that avoids DC before curving out to nail NYC and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: People got baited in by what I would describe as a faux kind of pattern where people thought we had a chance. Mountains and Maine can still cash in. Giving up on a pattern thats 7+ days away is just as ignorant as locking in on a great looking pattern from the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Too late. 12z GFS is a total disaster. Boring for days followed by a monster storm that avoids DC before curving out to nail NYC and Boston. Toss it. We are going to be tracking something soon. I can feel it. Maybe not a BECS though, but something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Giving up on a pattern thats 7+ days away is just as ignorant as locking in on a great looking pattern from the mid to long range. Living close to this ocean gives you perspective. That's where your SE ridge comes from and AGW shows up first in the ocean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I have a feeling today is gonna be entertaining in this thread. Already happening 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: From a hobby perspective, 2013-14 will always be my favorite tracking winter unless it gets topped at some point. That year it all. Ice, snow, bay freeze, below zero, acceptable to exceptional snow totals each month from dec-bitter end of march, multiple types of events from all angles and dangles. I literally got sick of tracking in late March. Never thought it was possible. For that reason alone, it's my personal holy grail year of winter wx tracking in the mid atl. That yr also had consistency. Jan/Feb/Mar were all double digit snow months. That doesn’t happen often in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Random fun fact: Remember kids... though it probably feels like it was an eternity ago, at this time last week we were still in our several week-long stretch of torch weather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Already happening Lol. This should stir things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, Ji said: Very frustrating not seeing anything on the models Just look at yesterday's 12z GFS and pretend its todays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Once the big players start coming onto the field they dredge up so much moisture and heat in the system. So far we have only dealt with northern stream systems and clipper-type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Looks like a nice and quiet stretch coming up. Should get through January without any drama and then the unofficial start to fishing season aka st Patrick's day is right around the corner!! -RSC 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Once the big players start coming onto the field they dredge up so much moisture and heat in the system. So far we have only dealt with northern stream systems and clipper-type stuff. Were you on Mars or something on Monday? Southern stream mauling. Come on man. Your posts are bad enough when they have accuracy. This post is plain stoopid 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 12Z GFS is straight up weenie heaven. Southern jet active AF. At some point in January the streams are gonna merge. In the advertised setup it has to happen. No guarantee we get hit. But someone is getting clobbered later this month if the setup as advertised is correct. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Looks like a nice and quiet stretch coming up. Should get through January without any drama and then the unofficial start to fishing season aka st Patrick's day is right around the corner!! -RSCThis is a winter weather board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: From a hobby perspective, 2013-14 will always be my favorite tracking winter unless it gets topped at some point. That year it all. Ice, snow, bay freeze, below zero, acceptable to exceptional snow totals each month from dec-bitter end of march, multiple types of events from all angles and dangles. I literally got sick of tracking in late March. Never thought it was possible. For that reason alone, it's my personal holy grail year of winter wx tracking in the mid atl. I think 2009-10 was the best, since getting 3 storms that were 18”+ is practically unheard of anywhere in the country outside the mountains or LES snow belts. But 2013-14 gives it a run for its money IMO, especially in the colder suburbs. I’ve never seen a wall to wall winter like that one either before or since. It snowed just about every week, and dare I say I liked it even slightly better than 2002-03. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I can see the appeal, but the argument that I was making is that big storms seem to kick good patterns out of the area faster. Take a look at Jan 2016. Solid event, but 3 days later we're roasting and the snow is melting off fast. As a general thing...I'm not sure we in this region have much room to complain about how long a snowpack lasts. It is dicey enough trying to get deep snow in the first place! How long it lasts oughta be considered a bonus, imo. Not to say I don't like a good snowpack...but I'd still rather have a deep snow then roast than no deep snow at all! Give me a 1-2 footer any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: As a general thing...I'm not sure we in this region have much room to complain about how long a snowpack lasts. It is dicey enough trying to get deep snow in the first place! How long it lasts oughta be considered a bonus, imo. Not to say I don't like a good snowpack...but I'd still rather have a deep snow then roast than no deep snow at all! Give me a 1-2 footer any day! I think we all agree with that. It's the choice between one big dawg to later melt away, or many small cuts keeping our neighborhoods white( I'm speaking about our lawns of course) resulting in an extended feeling of a real winter. At least that was my take on it. That said, I'm happy with anything we get these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 BrooklynWX: "There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. " Vice-Regent: "BIG STORM MAKE ATMOSPHERE HOT AND WET, NO SNOW SORRY" Who you gonna believe? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 49 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Too late. 12z GFS is a total disaster. Boring for days followed by a monster storm that avoids DC before curving out to nail NYC and Boston. It's over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Were you on Mars or something on Monday? Southern stream mauling. Come on man. Your posts are bad enough when they have accuracy. This post is plain stoopid Yeah if Monday was a northern stream event then I say bring on the Northern stream every day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: BrooklynWX: "There will be highly amplified shortwaves rolling S off of the western ridging that will be able to phase with cutoff lows and other pieces of energy from the southern stream. This is accomplished by the W ridging being a bit more poleward than usual: it allows for significant cross-polar flow, but it also keeps the STJ open. This is often how we get our largest storms. There is also an immense cold supply here, as our air will be sourced from Siberia. Hints of transient -NAO blocking have also been showing up on the OP runs, and there's some on the ENS means as well. Transient blocks are really all you need when it comes to large storms, as we've seen in the past. Overall, this is just a loaded pattern and I would honestly be quite surprised if there isn't a MECS (or two!) between the 15th and the end of the month. " Vice-Regent: "BIG STORM MAKE ATMOSPHERE HOT AND WET, NO SNOW SORRY" Who you gonna believe? Whoever types the most words 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Period around and the days following MLK day looking very interesting on GEFS. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Whoever types the most words love the new prof image. really digging deep with that one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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