Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GFS w/ 41" at IAD, 33" at DCA, 29" at BWI next weekend. Somehow, Ji will scoff at this, but holey moley am I excited about the next three weeks. Could be an epic time. Haven't been this optimistic since 2009 - 2010. Ji won't scoff at this at all. The problem is, for Ji, this is now the low bar and anything less is a disaster. This storm might already be ruined for him. The downside of long tracks I suppose. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Washington/Jefferson Storm redux or bust. That's what I need to feel like we've won with this upcoming pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Even though we know it's fantasy , it is kinda exciting. All these signals for something in that time period.Thats why I like when the op models show storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Ji won't scoff at this at all. The problem is, for Ji, this is now the low bar and anything less is a disaster. This storm might already be ruined for him. The downside of long tracks I suppose. We should really be investing in cryogenic suspension. That way all the weenies can go to sleep and wake up when the storm is 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: When did DCA get relocated? Howard finally won. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Textbook mid atl KU setup on mslp panels. Look at that freekin squeeze play on the banana high. I'll take the under on 1045mb but if the "shape" of the sprawling high looks like that (at any time in the next 3 weeks), it satisfies one of the most important ingredients for a KU... 5 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 That 12Z GFS is straight-up meteorological porn. 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 52 minutes ago, IronTy said: Storm of the century? I'd feel better about it if was hour 300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Hagerstown fringed It's a LOCK.Shenandoah demolished Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: I'd feel better about it if was hour 300 It's good to be the bullseye right now 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: That 12Z GFS is straight-up meteorological porn. Yea, as @Bob Chill said. Big high to the NW and even Ian on Twitter is liking the potential. Next two to three weeks could be really interesting. Peak climo for cold temps too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Hagerstown fringed It's a LOCK. Shenandoah demolished Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Even Short Pump gets in on the fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I’ll lock in those 42” IMBY right now. That’s the bar. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 The reason the gfs has such a monster is a perfect stream phase leading in with solid confluence overhead. This will always create a big storm somewhere. Problem is, the odds of a global op nailing a stream phase beyond 5 days is very very low. 10 days? Lol. Fun fiction but not much more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Hard not to get super excited seeing this but it's like 12 days out. Would feel a lot better if we were still talking the MLK weekend timeline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Is the GFS just broken lately? Seems messed up on tropical tidbits and weatherbell. Putting the EURO in its place earlier this week took it out of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The reason the gfs has such a monster is a perfect stream phase leading in with solid confluence overhead. This will always create a big storm somewhere. Problem is, the odds of a global op nailing a stream phase beyond 5 days is very very low. 10 days? Lol. Fun fiction but not much more. Perfect timing for the WinterWxLuvr in house model op run probability of being correct function. Days on the horizontal axis and probability on the vertical. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Wow...I mean I know it's still very early, but...how do you have this potential in a nina? Lol More STJ than usual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Perfect timing for the WinterWxLuvr in house model op run probability of being correct function. Days on the horizontal axis and probability on the vertical. So your saying there's a chance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Bricked up, dang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Perfect timing for the WinterWxLuvr in house model op run probability of being correct function. Days on the horizontal axis and probability on the vertical. I see a non zero solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, diatae said: I approve of this memeing 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Euro has the signal too. But nrn stream kinda f*cked us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Euro has the signal too. But nrn stream kinda f*cked us Now see, that there...Being in a nina is still buyer beware...Miller A for a big one or else, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Guys, in order to get a zero probability, there could never be a single instance of a model at a given time being “correct”. Ever. Now the discussion of what would constitute correct would be an interesting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Seems like we’re experiencing the difference between a La Niña and a well timed La Niña (mjo, etc). It’s 100 hrs further out than I’d like, but the ideas are showing up as a first step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow...I mean I know it's still very early, but...how do you have this potential in a nina? Lol More STJ than usual? This is the part of weather that constantly shows us that we are a long way away from really predicting anything seasonally when it comes to snowfall around here (or anywhere really). Some enso phases are better than others. That's indisputable. But that never stops counter periods of compressed and busy winter wx from happening. It just happens sometimes for reasons nobody can or will predict. Nino, Nina, nada, it doesn't matter. Neither does a raging +AO/NAO combo. Yea, that can def be a big problem. But 2013-14 and some of 2015 dropped by and reminded us to not think we know enough about the atmosphere for any kind of definitive calls at monthly or seasonal ranges. Just enjoy what we may or may not get as things look good in the mid range and forget about enso or any super long range thing for now. Time to make hay or something like that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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