January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Chris78]

Lwx Forcast discussion mentions an active upper level pattern with a  stormy period starting next weekend with Many shortwaves traveling the conus.

[Bob Chill]

Big amplified patterns with full latitude thoughs or really "steep hills" in the atmosphere create environments for explosive storms but they are super touchy and tricky. Personally, I always look for more confluent flow. I like seeing a broad trough with heights running more zonal underneath instead of "hilly". This is how we get our good cold storms. 

For reference only, take a look at this long range gfs panel. See how the trough in the east is broad and kinda flat underneath? See that shortwave to the west undercutting? This is what we (in the MA) want to see in general. Confluent flow keeps cold air plentiful and keeps storms from pulling north and/or west. 

 

 

The more time we spend with a general regime similar to above, the better the odds of a pretty good storm. 

[aldie 22]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Big amplified patterns with full latitude thoughs or really "steep hills" in the atmosphere create environments for explosive storms but they are super touchy and tricky. Personally, I always look for more confluent flow. I like seeing a broad trough with heights running more zonal underneath instead of "hilly". This is how we get our good cold storms. 

For reference only, take a look at this long range gfs panel. See how the trough in the east is broad and kinda flat underneath? See that shortwave to the west undercutting? This is what we (in the MA) want to see in general. Confluent flow keeps cold air plentiful and keeps storms from pulling north and/or west. 

 

 

The more time we spend with a general regime similar to above, the better the odds of a pretty good storm. 

How's your retirement from long range model watching going? 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

How's your retirement from long range model watching going? 

Ripping and reading is as easy as microwave popcorn 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

How's your retirement from long range model watching going? 

I'll always watch big storm setups from afar but I sure as heck wont take time out of my work day or stay up late to do it. THAT is the crux of my retirement. Lol 

[Vice-Regent]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Big amplified patterns with full latitude thoughs or really "steep hills" in the atmosphere create environments for explosive storms but they are super touchy and tricky. Personally, I always look for more confluent flow. I like seeing a broad trough with heights running more zonal underneath instead of "hilly". This is how we get our good cold storms. 

For reference only, take a look at this long range gfs panel. See how the trough in the east is broad and kinda flat underneath? See that shortwave to the west undercutting? This is what we (in the MA) want to see in general. Confluent flow keeps cold air plentiful and keeps storms from pulling north and/or west. 

 

 

The more time we spend with a general regime similar to above, the better the odds of a pretty good storm. 

Too bad you are pinning your hopes on the GFS which has been too cold in the long-range. Some inherent bias in the resolution of the modeling. It's showing up on everything but most apparent on the GFS. This period of wintry respite is starting to cloud your judgement Bob Chill.

[Bob Chill]

And to add to my h5 post above, broad throughs and confluent flow is the holy grail of "wiggle room" here. Lots can "deteriorate" but still produce. Can't say the same thing about full latitude phasers or any other kind of really amplified setups. That uphill trip from the south rare if ever has wiggle room. You typically either get destroyed, rained, or blanked. No model gets the track right until really close and every 12 hours turns subtle upper level shifts into massive sensible wx shifts. I'm so sick of that stuff I can't say it enough. 

Broad troughs and more zonal/confluent flow is where it's at for me. Much more reasonable to assess up to 5 days out. Maybe it caps the top end potential but our area isn't good at top end on a phased bomb ripping northward. We generally do best ENE trajectory in the upper levels on approach 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Too bad you are pinning your hopes on the GFS which has been too cold in the long-range. Some inherent bias in the resolution of the modeling. It's showing up on everything but most apparent on the GFS. This period of wintry respite is starting to cloud your judgement Bob Chill.

I guess you missed the words "for reference only" and "generally". If you think I'm pinning my hopes in a d10 op run, you're even dumber than I thought and that's a tall order right there 

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I guess you missed the words "for reference only" and "generally". If you think I'm pinning my hopes in a d10 op run, you're even dumber than I thought and that's a tall order right there 

Need something to post about. I get that.

In regards to being dumb or not on your wavelength. Look where smart cities have got us.. get real dude.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Vice-Regent said:

Need something to post about. I get that.

No, I'm pretty sure you don't get much at all. 

[Vice-Regent]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No, I'm pretty sure you don't get much at all. 

You are just an asshat. Nothing more... our birthdays are two days apart man.

I am guilty to falling victim to many things. Astrology being one of those if you can respect my right-hemisphere centered self.

[HighStakes]

1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said:

You are just an asshat. Nothing more... our birthdays are two days apart man.

The next upcoming 3 weeks of solid winter has got you a little irritated. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

. Look where smart cities have got us.. get real dude.

The only thing that reliably gets me where I want to be is me. Idgaf about "smart cities". I take care of myself and have yet to fail. Blaming others for your woes is a defeatist attitude that guarantees underperformance as an individual. 

How's mom's basement? Chips gettin stale?

[Vice-Regent]

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

The next upcoming 3 weeks of solid winter has got you a little irritated. 

The same people come out of the woodwork. Not a factor in my post actually.

You guys caught me at an unusual time. Normally I wouldn't engage this stuff and it's got me wondering that if the first thing you do after waking up is visiting the long-range thread on a weather forum that might be ominous indications of some neglect elsewhere in life. Again I don't know we cannot self regulate each other we all have the same faults. Two days man.

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The same people come out of the woodwork. Not a factor in my post actually.

You guys caught me at an unusual time. Normally I wouldn't engage this stuff and it's got me wondering that if the first thing you do after waking up is visiting the long-range thread on a weather forum that might be ominous indications of some neglect elsewhere in life. Again I don't know we cannot self regulate each other we all have the same faults. Two days man.

First thing I do in thr morning is take a dump!! Then I look at the long range thread. You were close though.

[Kmlwx]

Well this page of the thread has become the walking advertisement for the therapy industry. 

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll make it REALLY simple to understand... Ji's snow mood is 100% predicated on op model runs far beyond their useful range. It has always been and will always be this way. If there isn't a HECS on some random op somewhere waaaay out in time, it's a disaster. Does this make sense? Only if you've known Ji as long as your teenage kids. 

He’s also a troll and should be added to everyone’s ignore list.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

12 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The same people come out of the woodwork. Not a factor in my post actually.

You guys caught me at an unusual time. Normally I wouldn't engage this stuff and it's got me wondering that if the first thing you do after waking up is visiting the long-range thread on a weather forum that might be ominous indications of some neglect elsewhere in life. Again I don't know we cannot self regulate each other we all have the same faults. Two days man.

I'll probably regret engaging this, and maybe you're just trying to be snarky and humorous, but...dafuq???

Many or most of us come in here primarily during the winter, since that's the predominant interest.  So of course one of the first things I/we do is to check out the threads in here if we know something potentially interesting is going on.  Neglect elsewhere in life?  That's a bit rich.  You could argue any hobby people have that they take seriously or pursue with great interest causes the same, but that's a rather negative way to view things.  Some take it too far or are a bit over the top, but most in here are not (and @Bob Chill or @psuhoffman are perhaps the two most level-headed people around here).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

First thing I do in thr morning is take a dump!! Then I look at the long range thread. You were close though.

Hey man...priorities!!  Hold it in for awhile and check out the long range first!  Jeez!! 

[North Balti Zen]

34 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

You are just an asshat. Nothing more... our birthdays are two days apart man.

I am guilty to falling victim to many things. Astrology being one of those if you can respect my right-hemisphere centered self.

For ****ssake, BAN him. We finally get Chill back with some pretty great disco and this mewling taint trolls him. @WxUSAF 

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For ****ssake, BAN him. We finally get Chill back with some pretty great disco and this mewling taint trolls him. @WxUSAF 

Nah, we're good. Long history of course and I don't mind. Vice's posts themselves do an excellent job of insulting him without anyone having to put in work. Let it rip 

[nj2va]

On 12/28/2021 at 6:03 PM, Ji said:

Winter is over...just don't see it. Not even trackable threat yet and the lr looks bleak. We only have so much time

Reminder of Ji’s last prediction a week before he had two measurable events. Keep in mind when Ji declares January is a disaster and we can’t even get a fantasy storm in a good pattern. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Reminder of Ji’s last prediction a week before he had two measurable events. Keep in mind when Ji declares January is a disaster and we can’t even get a fantasy storm in a good pattern. 

Our best events historically come after Ji's most entertaining melts. We're in the warmup phase. Once the climax of the meltdown is complete, we'll see the leading edge of a big dog on radar. 

I didn't write these rules and they really don't make a lick of sense but if Ji isn't melting, it isn't snowing. 

[IronTy]

34 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

First thing I do in thr morning is take a dump!! Then I look at the long range thread. You were close though.

Nothing like dropping the kids off at the pool first thing in the morning.  Then after that I take my pup out and he does the same.  Deuces everywhere.  

[Bob Chill]

34 minutes ago, mattie g said:

He’s also a troll and should be added to everyone’s ignore list.

I mean we should... for a list of reasons longer than the dead sea scrolls... but I just can't bring myself to even consider it. Dare I say, in secret, when nobody is looking, and there is no way to get caught, I find myself thoroughly enjoying every single one of Ji's posts?

 

It's like meth. You know you should never fukkin touch it and you know what pain it can bring to families and friends. But for reasons beyond conscious control, you take a big long hit and start thinking about the next one... never done meth but reading Ji's posts for over 15 years is prob close enough 

[IronTy]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Our best events historically come after Ji's most entertaining melts. We're in the warmup phase. Once the climax of the meltdown is complete, we'll see the leading edge of a big dog on radar. 

I didn't write these rules and they really don't make a lick of sense but if Ji isn't melting, it isn't snowing. 

Sometimes you have to have complete capitulation before the good stuff can begin.   The Bastardi JMA event comes to mind some years ago.  One of the classics.  

[IronTy]

It's strange that there should be so much drama on a weather forum because it's literally the one thing in life, and subsequently the one forum on earth, that nobody can do a damn thing about.  Every single person is completely powerless to impact one iota of anything on the subject of the forum.   Which is probably why it elicits such strong emotion.  In fact there's probably a thesis topic in there for some budding phd psychology student.  

[Bob Chill]

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

It's strange that there should be so much drama on a weather forum because it's literally the one thing in life, and subsequently the one forum on earth, that nobody can do a damn thing about.  Every single person is completely powerless to impact one iota of anything on the subject of the forum.   Which is probably why it elicits such strong emotion.  In fact there's probably a thesis topic in there for some budding phd psychology student.  

Your relative newness here is showing with this post. Everything you say makes perfect sense but you gotta delete those thoughts before clicking on any thread on amwx.

Just let it all go. Forget about logic. Forget about reality. Forget about realistic expectations. Forget about what "normal" people "should" be doing. Just open your mind and take a big long look at what's REALLY going on here. This place only draws in fookin weirdos with mental problems. Me included. Prove me wrong 

[nw baltimore wx]

51 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

First thing I do in thr morning is take a dump!! Then I look at the long range thread. You were close though.

I’m on the same schedule but I do early morning model watching from the throne.

[nw baltimore wx]

DT can be such a great teacher when he’s medicated. There’s a lot of good info in this video. A lot of self-back-patting too, but worth the watch IMO.