January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

You know that was 53s voice occasionally 

[Stormfly]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

LOL haven't heard that number in years.  Along with the time lady at 844-1212.

I got my first weather radio in the early 80s.  No need to call the weather bureau as they called it.

[Prestige Worldwide]

[Herb@MAWS]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

... And you dial 936-1212 and then after a few seconds your wife picks up on the other phone and gleefully shouts “Caught ya!!!”

[Scraff]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

Sad but true. That was so me! And oh…what was that “party” line# again? 

[Herb@MAWS]

10 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

LOL haven't heard that number in years.  Along with the time lady at 844-1212.

I got my first weather radio in the early 80s.  No need to call the weather bureau as they called it.

And let’s not forget AM Weather. 

[Herb@MAWS]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Sad but true. That was so me! And oh…what was that “party” line# again? 

In Baltimore, we called it The Beep Line. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

Hahaha!  I remember in northeast Ohio growing up, the weather line (NWS forecast) was 931-1212.  And the TV-8 (CBS) forecast from the famed local meteorologist Dick Goddard was 881-0880!  I can still hear his voice on the weather segment of the local news, he'd say for updates to call "eight eight one...zero...eight eight zero" (with the pauses and all in his voice!).  Yeah, I still remember those damned numbers!  Sadly, Dick Goddard passed away in 2020...he really was a legend in the area and very good.  Especially when it came to lake effect snow.

9 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

LOL haven't heard that number in years.  Along with the time lady at 844-1212.

I got my first weather radio in the early 80s.  No need to call the weather bureau as they called it.

I had a weather radio about the same time, in the early '80s!  Listened to it all the time, awaiting the zone forecasts (everything was on a loop of course...observations, weather summary, zone forecasts, etc.).  And I even still remember the time number from where I was growing up, 471-1212.  With the automated voice saying "At the tone, the time will be..." every 10 seconds!!

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This where things were better when I was a kid. Many times snow would come and you wouldn’t have a clue it was coming. And if you did, you might know a day or two in advance tops. You either had to see it on a tv broadcast, see it in the newspaper, or hear it on the radio.

Ignorance was literally bliss...lol And really, despite my youth and the technology boom I grew up in, the only tracking I did was the local news and the 7 day...lol Wasn't until the 2013-14 winter that I stumbled on this site. And boy am I glad I wasn't on here for some of the fails--if we failed it was better not to know how close it was! 

But with everything at our fingertips (for better or worse, lol) I think that psychologically we get over exposed. Having all these maps can get ya all wrapped up in it...And then when something approaches--and even while it's happening--there's obsession over radar appearances instead of looking out our dang windows!

Yep...it was definitely less stressful before!

 

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ignorance was literally bliss...lol And really the only tracking I did was the local news and the 7 day...lol Wasn't until the 2013-14 winter that I stumbled on this site. And boy am I glad I wasn't on here for some of the fails--if we failed it was better not to know how close it was! 

But with everything at our fingertips (for better or worse, lol) I think that psychologically we get over exposed. Having all these maps can get ya all wrapped up in it...And then when something approaches--and even while it's happening--there's obsession over radar appearances instead of looking out our dang windows!

Yep...it was definitely less stressful before!

 

My dad and I used to watch the weather channel for hours at a time. They had the 7day forecast on the 20s after the hour, I always watched that shit for the bright white snow on the map because that meant heavy snow.  

[Lowershoresadness]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

it better snow a ton to make us forget about the dumpster fire that Terps bb has become. At least Turge is gone

[87storms]

28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

That and George Michael’s sports machine were in my 80s/90s rotation.

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

My dad and I used to watch the weather channel for hours at a time. They had the 7day forecast on the 20s after the hour, I always watched that shit for the bright white snow on the map because that meant heavy snow.  

Yeah I always watched the weather channel as a kid too. I remember the local on the 8s. Music was calming and I liked reading what they had to say. My parents thought I was weird 

[TJ3]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

OMG. Remember back in mid 70s 1212 was calling for Heavy Snow Warning, as it was once called , for 4-6 starting mid afternoon on a weekday day. Best buddy and I kept waiting. Kept calling 1212 until finally changed to Travelers Advisory, also a thing, for 1-3. Of course got zilch. Not one flake. But loved calling that number 

[Rvarookie]

The less we bitch the more it snows. Don’t bring the bad juju…

[wxdude64]

33 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

And let’s not forget AM Weather. 

I watched that practically every morning it was on

[GATECH]

I see  the ‘HOT’ tag on this topic and am thinking a Miller A must be inbound for next week…nope instead a bunch of old dudes talking about how they would get their weather porn from calling 976 numbers back in the 80’s.

since I am an old dude, I did that stuff to, plus would watch the weather channel Day’s Inn 5 day forecast at 20 after the hour.  And the AM weather on PBS, lol, I didn’t even know that was a thing until I was in met school in 1991 taking General Meteorology at the university of Northern Colorado.  Our prof would make everyone in the class watch am weather every day we had class, we had to make a weather map on an overhead sheet and then give the 48 hour forecast for Norhteast Colorado.  He would randomly call on a student every day to give the forecast.  Good times that was, getting up at 6am as a freshman for a MWF class to catch that show not so much.  When I got called up, it was easiest forecast ever, sunny hi 52, low 43, repeat for the next day.

[IronTy]

23 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Yeah I always watched the weather channel as a kid too. I remember the local on the 8s. Music was calming and I liked reading what they had to say. My parents thought I was weird 

You ever watch the "extended" part of your local forecast and wait to see if you had a big snowflake in any of the days?  Cause that meant heavy snow.  Ah the good ole days living in Michigan. 

[psuhoffman]

Man there’s some crazy sh*t showing up on the long range guidance. Anyone notice the 18z Gfs nearly pulled off the same thing the ggem was doing at 12z but missed the phase by like 12 hours. Still managed a pretty good storm anyways but that was so close to a monster. I’ll say this…it’s rare we get the arctic jet amplified so far south as being indicated. It does open the door to some fun possibilities. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

You ever watch the "extended" part of your local forecast and wait to see if you had a big snowflake in any of the days?  Cause that meant heavy snow.  Ah the good ole days living in Michigan. 

Nope. Don’t remember that. But I do remember the temperature maps. I was in Massachusetts then so there was always snow 

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Man there’s some crazy sh*t showing up on the long range guidance. Anyone notice the 18z Gfs nearly pulled off the same thing the ggem was doing at 12z but missed the phase by like 12 hours. Still managed a pretty good storm anyways but that was so close to a monster. I’ll say this…it’s rare we get the arctic jet amplified so far south as being indicated. It does open the door to some fun possibilities. 

Just having it have the potential is enough for me. Differences of 12 hours are like miniscule at this range - could be really fun coming up. Trying not to invest too much. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Just having it have the potential is enough for me. Differences of 12 hours are like miniscule at this range - could be really fun coming up. Trying not to invest too much. 

Last night confirmed it. We're on our first heater since Feb/Mar 2015. You should invest in getting your shovels tuned up

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Last night confirmed it. We're on our first heater since Feb/Mar 2015. You should invest in getting your shovels tuned up

They are oiled already! (Since before the first storm). 

I'm not quite at your level of indifference for the longer range - but I'm finding it at least a bit easier these days to be patient until stuff is in the shorter ranges. If this potential is still there in 3 or 4 days, though it may start to turn into a sleepless week. Have to find something to distract me for now. 

[clskinsfan]

GFS bringing back the idea of something around MLK day as well. Monster 1051 HP plunging in behind it would deep freeze us. Fun times coming up. 

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

They are oiled already! (Since before the first storm). 

I'm not quite at your level of indifference for the longer range - but I'm finding it at least a bit easier these days to be patient until stuff is in the shorter ranges. If this potential is still there in 3 or 4 days, though it may start to turn into a sleepless week. Have to find something to distract me for now. 

Just let Ma Nature do her thing. There is no doubt a good looking period being advertised. One of the best we've seen in January for a long time. Never any guarantees but at least it looks like a multiple chance window. We usually need those. 

Oh, and take a nice long look at the analog list and let your imagination have some fun. 

[benjammin]

Those tiny maps in the Washington Post and Star. Of course dialing 936-1212 but the biggest thing was when Bob Ryan said it was going to snow a lot because he was usually conservative and right. In January 96 when he forecasted 1-2 feet before a flake had fallen I knew we were going to get nailed.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

[frd]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Man there’s some crazy sh*t showing up on the long range guidance. Anyone notice the 18z Gfs nearly pulled off the same thing the ggem was doing at 12z but missed the phase by like 12 hours. Still managed a pretty good storm anyways but that was so close to a monster. I’ll say this…it’s rare we get the arctic jet amplified so far south as being indicated. It does open the door to some fun possibilities. 

Yes indeed,  some very interesting potential outcomes in the long range. Besides the favorable Pac we have a very pronounced elongation/stretching of the PV forecasted.  This may coincide with Atlantic wave breaking and Greenland blocking. This could buckle and slow the exit of systems off the East Coast in addition to a potential dive of the arctic jet bringing the possibilty of very low lattitude  high ratio snow events, along with extreme baroclinic deepening of storms off the East Coast. 

Here we are now 

 

Then at 240 hours

 

 

      

Then at hour 372,  which is crazy.  Of note is the shifting Southward of the PV / streamlines and the monentum itself of the Southward elongation of the PV from beyond 300 hours to the end of the run.    

 

[snowfan]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just let Ma Nature do her thing. There is no doubt a good looking period being advertised. One of the best we've seen in January for a long time. Never any guarantees but at least it looks like a multiple chance window. We usually need those. 

Oh, and take a nice long look at the analog list and let your imagination have some fun. 

That analog list is NSFW.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, snowfan said:

That analog list is NSFW.

I just realized it's 2 days old? It's the most recent on CPC site... great list tho. Maybe tomorrow's will be weenier

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I just realized it's 2 days old? It's the most recent on CPC site... great list tho. Maybe tomorrow's will be weenier

With the exception of 96 I can’t remember any storms close to those dates. I remember some a couple weeks or more later. Are there storms I’m just not remembering?