January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

-NAO, -AO and the PV trapped on our side. A lot to like about what’s to come as we end the month.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

[psuhoffman]

Honestly though, while I was pretty confident this wasn’t going to be one of the REALLY bad dreg Nina’s I still had conservative expectations in terms of final #s. But had I known most of the forum would be at or close to double digits by Jan 10 heading into prime climo AND shockingly the STJ would be showing signs of behaving in a rather un Nina way…I might have gone even higher. At the least we’ve already avoided this year being in that dreaded list of years we all hate to even mention. But with some luck MAYBE this year has the chance to be one of the rare Nina exceptions. No I’m not talking 1996 level necessarily but the rare Nina that surpasses climo isn’t unfathomable given the current results and coming pattern. 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly though, while I was pretty confident this wasn’t going to be one of the REALLY bad dreg Nina’s I still had conservative expectations in terms of final #s. But had I known most of the forum would be at or close to double digits by Jan 10 heading into prime climo AND shockingly the STJ would be showing signs of behaving in a rather un Nina way…I might have gone even higher. At the least we’ve already avoided this year being in that dreaded list of years we all hate to even mention. But with some luck MAYBE this year has the chance to be one of the rare Nina exceptions. No I’m not talking 1996 level necessarily but the rare Nina that surpasses climo isn’t unfathomable given the current results and coming pattern. 

Agree.  As you've said many times, a lot of our snowfall comes down to luck.  The pattern this week was "decent", but not spectacular, with "decent" cold air, but far from arctic air masses.  And we scored twice with advisory/warning level events.  That's some solid luck.  Just some normal luck for the rest of the month with the pattern being as good as advertised and we could end up with a very special and memorable winter period.  

[cbmclean]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

But isn't that the scene just before all his plans explode into a roaring ball of flame?  What are you implying? Panic!

[snowmagnet]

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly though, while I was pretty confident this wasn’t going to be one of the REALLY bad dreg Nina’s I still had conservative expectations in terms of final #s. But had I known most of the forum would be at or close to double digits by Jan 10 heading into prime climo AND shockingly the STJ would be showing signs of behaving in a rather un Nina way…I might have gone even higher. At the least we’ve already avoided this year being in that dreaded list of years we all hate to even mention. But with some luck MAYBE this year has the chance to be one of the rare Nina exceptions. No I’m not talking 1996 level necessarily but the rare Nina that surpasses climo isn’t unfathomable given the current results and coming pattern. 

Feel free to mention that rare January of 1996... you never know.  

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Agree.  As you've said many times, a lot of our snowfall comes down to luck.  The pattern this week was "decent", but not spectacular, with "decent" cold air, but far from arctic air masses.  And we scored twice with advisory/warning level events.  That's some solid luck.  Just some normal luck for the rest of the month with the pattern being as good as advertised and we could end up with a very special and memorable winter period.  

Maybe this week was the 30,000 ft view big picture “luck” balancing out because I’ve felt the DC area has had pretty awful luck on the whole much of the last 5 years. Don’t get me wrong the prevailing patterns were a mix of decent but flawed and bad much of the time and I’m not saying DC should have done well…but it takes a special kind of bad luck to do as awful as it did Imo. There were enough “decent” periods even in some of those really bad almost snowless winters that I felt like DC should have lucked into at least one decent event. But it’s random. Maybe the randomness turned in our favor finally. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe this week was the 30,000 ft view big picture “luck” balancing out because I’ve felt the DC area has had pretty awful luck on the whole much of the last 5 years. Don’t get me wrong the prevailing patterns were a mix of decent but flawed and bad much of the time and I’m not saying DC should have done well…but it takes a special kind of bad luck to do as awful as it did Imo. There were enough “decent” periods even in some of those really bad almost snowless winters that I felt like DC should have lucked into at least one decent event. But it’s random. Maybe the randomness turned in our favor finally. 

Yeah perhaps.  A bit of even-ing out.  Jan 2019 was the last luck DC has had for sure with the mesoscale band adding several more inches at the end of the storm.  I caught that band as well, but it stopped literally a couple miles to my east.  Last year was a hair's breadth from being really great for the whole region, we had the storms, but couldn't get or keep a "good enough" airmass to save our lives.  Hence 5-6" at DCA, 17" for me, and like 50" for you.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

Not much in the way of discrete opportunities showing up right now on the ops but you gotta really love the feel of what’s being shown. My guess is that by the end of the weekend we have someone to track that’s within a week timeframe.

[snowmagnet]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe this week was the 30,000 ft view big picture “luck” balancing out because I’ve felt the DC area has had pretty awful luck on the whole much of the last 5 years. Don’t get me wrong the prevailing patterns were a mix of decent but flawed and bad much of the time and I’m not saying DC should have done well…but it takes a special kind of bad luck to do as awful as it did Imo. There were enough “decent” periods even in some of those really bad almost snowless winters that I felt like DC should have lucked into at least one decent event. But it’s random. Maybe the randomness turned in our favor finally. 

Living in the DC area most of my my life, I think we have really interesting climatology.  Growing up in Charles County, MD, my mom used to always tell me that we got our biggest storms from the South. She wasn't really a fan of snow, but she did watch a lot of Bob Ryan over the years!  I've since learned a great deal about winter weather dynamics from the amazing people in this forum   Most places in the country aren't between the mountains and the ocean.  I think our location makes for very interesting winter weather tracking (even if it's often frustrating). We definitely have to thread the needle to get those perfect storms, but sometimes we do just get lucky.  Here's to more "snow on snow" this month!

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, LP08 said:

-NAO, -AO and the PV trapped on our side. A lot to like about what’s to come as we end the month.

Throw in +PNA and -EPO for the final ingredients in one of the most delicious alphabet soups a Mid-Atlantic weather weenie can slurp down.

[clskinsfan]

Been stuck on the phone working all day. But the GFS is pretty much weenie heaven if you like tracking chances over the next couple of weeks. Busy time upcoming for those of us addicted to this hobby is my guess. 

[mattie g]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Been stuck on the phone working all day. But the GFS is pretty much weenie heaven if you like tracking chances over the next couple of weeks. Busy time upcoming for those of us addicted to this hobby is my guess. 

I think it might get frustrating to a lot of us, in that stuff that looks good may pop up and then disappear, but there may also be situations like the last week when storms pop up in the relatively short term. Just a give and take we may have to make. If we really do get a nice block with a STJ popping up, we might have a longer track, but I'm not planning for that, even with the look we're seeing now.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

But isn't that the scene just before all his plans explode into a roaring ball of flame?  What are you implying? Panic!

Chill out 

[Ji]

we are heading towards dark days friends....after non stop tracking and excitement ...we really have nothing concrete to track right now. the OP euro was less than thrilling lol the good news is that we are not in a shutout pattern

[WinterWxLuvr]

I, for one, hate long track events. I’d much rather start tracking within 48 hours. For one thing you don’t have to wait as long for models to run lol

[Imgoinhungry]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are heading towards dark days friends....after non stop tracking and excitement ...we really have nothing concrete to track right now. the OP euro was less than thrilling lol the good news is that we are not in a shutout pattern

coastal storm mlk weekend no longer showing up on models?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are heading towards dark days friends....after non stop tracking and excitement ...we really have nothing concrete to track right now. the OP euro was less than thrilling lol the good news is that we are not in a shutout pattern

We’re heading into a very good pattern and we JUST got snow.  If this is the “dark times” your bar might be…oh hell we all know you’re never happy lol 

 As the pacific pattern progression and high lat pattern regression reaches its peak the next trough amplification happens a little too far east and so yes we might have about a 7 day “dead” period to contend with before the pattern begins to retrograde. 
 

But what is advertised across guidance and is moving forward in time into a believable range after the peak jet extension relaxes some is a full latitude PNA EPO ridge as the next wave attack on the high latitudes begins to repeat that cycle only this time with a favorable pacific longwave pattern. If that’s even close to reality threats will show up pretty fast. But you know that lol. 

[Ji]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

coastal storm mlk weekend no longer showing up on models?

it does look like the EPS has a good signal. But the 12z op euro was really boring

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I, for one, hate long track events. I’d much rather start tracking within 48 hours. For one thing you don’t have to wait as long for models to run lol

THIS!!!!!  2016 was way too nerve wracking.  Waiting every run for 10 days for the rug to get pulled. Even knowing the pattern supported that event and knowing it had a good chance you know things can still go wrong. A badly timed NS SW or PV lobe comes along and bye bye storm. 
 

There is no upside to a storm showing up 7 days out. If it hits by the time it does your emotionally exhausted and it’s not as exciting. Then if it ends up being a small event you’re disappointed. Last year those 2 big storms if I got 10” when 48 hrs out looked like nothing I’d have been over the mood. Instead I was content but meh because it teased me with 20”+ 48 hours out.  
 

Give me a storm that pops up 2-3 days out every time. Saves me from my own obsessive tendencies. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

it does look like the EPS has a good signal. But the 12z op euro was really boring

Would you prefer the op look good at day 9-10 and the ensembles crap? 

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

THIS!!!!!  2016 was way too nerve wracking.  Waiting every run for 10 days for the rug to get pulled. Even knowing the pattern supported that event and knowing it had a good chance you know things can still go wrong. A badly timed NS SW or PV lobe comes along and bye bye storm. 
 

There is no upside to a storm showing up 7 days out. If it hits by the time it does your emotionally exhausted and it’s not as exciting. Then if it ends up being a small event you’re disappointed. Last year those 2 big storms if I got 10” when 48 hrs out looked like nothing I’d have been over the mood. Instead I was content but meh because it teased me with 20”+ 48 hours out.  
 

Give me a storm that pops up 2-3 days out every time. Saves me from my own obsessive tendencies. 

Give me something to track in the Day 4 and shorter timeframe, too.  The longer track events are annoying AF due to the meltdowns and freakouts over every.  single.  fluctuation. -- "OMG, THE 162 HOUR SNOWFALL MAP WENT FROM 16" TO 10" HERE COMES THE NORTH TREND IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED".  

[WxUSAF]

These two events were perfect in a lot of ways. Didn’t really give them any significance until about 48-72 hours, low emotional investment going in, then both overperformed IMBY. Wonderful. 

[osfan24]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

These two events were perfect in a lot of ways. Didn’t really give them any significance until about 48-72 hours, low emotional investment going in, then both overperformed IMBY. Wonderful. 

Second one was great, though Boston area getting hit hard made me kinda sad. First one was painful. So close to something big, and I had invested a decent amount in that.

[WxUSAF]

24 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Second one was great, though Boston area getting hit hard made me kinda sad. First one was painful. So close to something big, and I had invested a decent amount in that.

I empathize with the Monday miss but today was a lucky low end warning/high end advisory snow. Northern stream Miller B that we got that? Gravy. Boston cleans up on those, we usually lose.

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Second one was great, though Boston area getting hit hard made me kinda sad. First one was painful. So close to something big, and I had invested a decent amount in that.

Yeah I feel your pain on Monday (obviously, lol). I was so close that my reporting station got 4.5 more inches--so I feel ya! Being that close bothers me more than, say, Boston getting shellacked. But last night was a salve for that...just what the doctor ordered (along with the potential shown in the LR!) 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Give me something to track in the Day 4 and shorter timeframe, too.  The longer track events are annoying AF due to the meltdowns and freakouts over every.  single.  fluctuation. -- "OMG, THE 162 HOUR SNOWFALL MAP WENT FROM 16" TO 10" HERE COMES THE NORTH TREND IT WAS FUN WHILE IT LASTED".  

The favorite part of my semi-retirement here is not caring about that stuff any more. I've seen enough over the last 15 years. Everything is a repeat to me in many ways so it's much easier to barely look until it's "real". Real is subjective but for me it doesn't exist outside of 3-4 days tops unless it's a big dog. Once a common type of storm makes it into the meso model runs and it looks good enough, that's when my gears shift now. 

This allowed me to significantly appreciate the 2 events we just had. No stress. No fuss. But both overperformed in their own ways for my yard. What a treat. 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Would you prefer the op look good at day 9-10 and the ensembles crap? 

op lol. looks better on my screen

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The favorite part of my semi-retirement here is not caring about that stuff any more. I've seen enough over the last 15 years. Everything is a repeat to me in many ways so it's much easier to barely look until it's "real". Real is subjective but for me it doesn't exist outside of 3-4 days tops unless it's a big dog. Once a common type of storm makes it into the meso model runs and it looks good enough, that's when my gears shift now. 

This allowed me to significantly appreciate the 2 events we just had. No stress. No fuss. But both overperformed in their own ways for my yard. What a treat. 

This where things were better when I was a kid. Many times snow would come and you wouldn’t have a clue it was coming. And if you did, you might know a day or two in advance tops. You either had to see it on a tv broadcast, see it in the newspaper, or hear it on the radio.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

This where things were better when I was a kid. Many times snow would come and you wouldn’t have a clue it was coming. And if you did, you might know a day or two in advance tops. You either had to see it on a tv broadcast, see it in the newspaper, or hear it on the radio.

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics