jayyy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 MLK day is looking like it has serious potential for a major east coast storm. Details to be ironed out later but dayum, the second half of the month could be epic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: That 00z GFS run was one of the craziest, most incredible runs I’ve ever seen for CONUS winter prospects. It even destroys us out here with cold and snow. Man, I’d pay good money for that. . Its been damned COLD in south central Texas, problem is, we have been SO spoiled utterly rotten for so long with 82/68 dewpoints!!!!!!!!! I actually thought it was chilly with a south wind comin in off the GoM, with 72/67 conditions late at night at midnight in late December! I realize this is heresy, coming from me...........But I want those 68 degree dewpoints BACK in Buda for a couple of days, along with 83 degree ambient temps. This is what happens when you work outside in south Texas summers for three years running. I'm used to it, I work out there in mid August heat like I grew up down here lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, yoda said: oh hai there Pretty good classic redeveloper look there especially with the confluence and HP setup. Fun times ahead hopefully 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 So, when do we get snow again 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: So, when do we get snow again Snomicron is coming for us all 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: So, when do we get snow again Don’t know about snow but bet we see freezing rain this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t know about snow but bet we see freezing rain this weekend I've heard. Haven't looked too closely at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, mappy said: So, when do we get snow again Hey it's nice to be seeing snow and also looking just over a week ahead at potential! I tried to stop it, but...my brain was already getting sucked into next weekend even as last night's fun was going on. But I made sure to enjoy that as it happened...progress 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: I've heard. Haven't looked too closely at it. Just seems like a classic setup for it. Gonna plenty of cold air around is my guess. Wind flow won’t be ideal though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t know about snow but bet we see freezing rain this weekend 1 minute ago, mappy said: I've heard. Haven't looked too closely at it. Yeah I had a question about this...Is it a possibility Sunday morning? Church called yesterday about it and decided to close, and I was caught a tad off guard (though I remember a couple of you had mentioned things looking a but colder) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Not looking for a big cold shot. Looking for a big snowstorm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 8 hours ago, Ji said: Congrats jbhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2022010700&fh=384 It was delayed, not denied. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific. I tend to agree but I’m always open to Mother Nature surprising me. But it looks like we have a real winter this year at least. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Funny how we genuinely seem to go on streaks. I was only going into this one expecting 2-3 on the high end and got 4ish+ Will be curious is we can cash in a semi big one in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific. Rather be in the 60’s the days leading up to a 6-12 incher versus 20’s and low 30’s for highs and no snow lol. Heck we pulled it off earlier in the week!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Yea I’m in the camp to where the way the year has gone thus far something will show up on the back end of the short range to early medium range. A lot of little nuances happening in the atmosphere as of recent wrt lows just ripping through. Hard to time or predict until it gets closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific. Great thing about cold in the northeast is that an overrunner/tn/oh valley cutter can be a lot of fun. I want one of those followed by a Midwest arctic blast with a Miller A running the coast with that cold pushing in followed quickly by a stout clipper bringing a 1985 cold shot right behind it. Theoretically it could happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Every model that has run so far has ice in our area Sunday morning. Timing could make things dicey for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every model that has run so far has ice in our area Sunday morning. Timing could make things dicey for a bit. Schools have already closed for next week 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Yeoman said: Schools have already closed for next week No doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every model that has run so far has ice in our area Sunday morning. Timing could make things dicey for a bit. Whats the time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Whats the time frame? Looks like right around 7-9 am to me. All models I’ve seen have us in the 20’s with light precip moving in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I tend to agree but I’m always open to Mother Nature surprising me. But it looks like we have a real winter this year at least. Winter wx here is perplexing. I'm starting to no longer care about anything in the Fall. Even enso. I mean sure, mod Nino ftw but for whatever reason, our good winter periods are compressed and busy and they can happen in any year. Odds favor certain years but I've seen enough counter moves over the last 15 years to temper any and all expectations of anything beyond a couple weeks. Eta: important addition to my post... big storm setups are different and they are the holy grail of why we do this. Good setups can be easy to identify weeks or even a month in advance. I'll track TF out of every single one from long range. Beyond that I'm officially in chips fall mode prob forever 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Suggest buying extra chapstick and Aveeno 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Something to watch. Also, as previously stated, an active pattern with decent clipper potential, and eventially possible SECS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 We’ve talked about cold air source a bit … not gonna be a problem soon I would think 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 If you trust indices forecasts, which you probably shouldn’t, the big three of -AO, -NAO, +PNA may be lining up soon. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 A slight change of plans. Improvement in the MJO, tropical forcing and for the first time in a while we have a SOI reading of - 7.63 today. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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