psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:59 AM, Ji said: This looks interesting....and nino lolhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022010600&fh=240 Expand Oh yes it does. That’s “incoming” right there. And I was saying in the zoom chat tonight how the pattern really looks way more like a Nino than Nina in the long range. We had a Nino that acted like a Nina recently so maybe we’re due. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 7:38 AM, psuhoffman said: Oh yes it does. That’s “incoming” right there. And I was saying in the zoom chat tonight how the pattern really looks way more like a Nino than Nina in the long range. We had a Nino that acted like a Nina recently so maybe we’re due. Expand Oh dang there was a chat tonight? (Ah I'll check the other thread next time, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Continuing to look good mid month and beyond as the Nina has become more East based in a rather pronouned fashion. Favorable changes in the Pac near the Date Line ( MJO , some warming Nino 4 ) have presented a more increasingly Nino-ish outcome with a STJ influence. Moving forward next week we will have a declining NAO courtesy of a Atlantic wave breaking event while we await the positive PNA spike. Latest indications are the AO goes back to neutral to slightly negative which may then possibly lead to a - NAM state. This sets the stage for possible snow events mid month and beyond. Warming in Nino 4 recently. https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1478098875567296520 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Anybody got the individual gefs or eps or both? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Little bit of a chilly airmass there at the end of the GFS run. Obviously, the end of an op run but with the projected pattern something extreme is on the table imo. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 LOL! can't make this up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:37 PM, Yeoman said: LOL! can't make this up Expand Dude that's all the way at the 22nd...why post even pay attention to that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:39 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Dude that's all the way at the 22nd...why post even pay attention to that? Lol Expand Because regardless of date, its the most ridiculous model solution I've ever seen and thought it was hilarious? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:37 PM, Yeoman said: LOL! can't make this up Expand Damn. Looks just like a map from 1985! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:39 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Dude that's all the way at the 22nd...why post even pay attention to that? Lol Expand You have to be joking with this comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:43 PM, Yeoman said: Because regardless of date, its the most ridiculous model solution I've ever seen and thought it was hilarious? Expand That seriously looks just like ‘85 And of course it really happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:25 PM, poolz1 said: Little bit of a chilly airmass there at the end of the GFS run. Obviously, the end of an op run but with the projected pattern something extreme is on the table imo. Expand Looks like an image from the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You have to be joking with this comment. Expand What? I mean his comment made it sound like it was set in stone something, lol But reading again I guess it was more tongue-in-cheek. But this IS along range thread after...so I guess I take it back. Eta: Yep--misread the sarcasm, lol Apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:43 PM, Yeoman said: Because regardless of date, its the most ridiculous model solution I've ever seen and thought it was hilarious? Expand Yeah I see that now, lol I digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:43 PM, Yeoman said: Because regardless of date, its the most ridiculous model solution I've ever seen and thought it was hilarious? Expand It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig 1 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:13 PM, Bob Chill said: It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig Expand Geez... That's cold. What's the Euro look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:13 PM, Bob Chill said: It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig Expand I bet there is still a warm nose somewhere in the column 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 5:51 PM, Baltimorewx said: Looks like an image from the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" Expand i'm glad i replaced the spark plugs on my jeep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:13 PM, Bob Chill said: It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig Expand Hype post...you know this won't happen as depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:19 PM, H2O said: I bet there is still a warm nose somewhere in the column Expand right over top DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:18 PM, snowmagnet said: Geez... That's cold. What's the Euro look like? Expand It’s a bunch of servers and racks, but that’s not important right now… 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 6:18 PM, snowmagnet said: Geez... That's cold. What's the Euro look like? Expand euro is warm rain. Looked much better at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Ahhh… the ‘ole east based niña, but acts like a niño pattern. Prepare for pummelization (Everyone except Ji) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 7:06 PM, Ji said: euro is warm rain. Looked much better at 00z Expand Ass end is over your house already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 EPS are a much better look and nothing like the op in the LR. Trof digs in the Gulf states rather than -PNA out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 8:08 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS are a much better look and nothing like the op in the LR. Trof digs in the Gulf states rather than -PNA out west. Expand How's the honk lookin' on the EPS? (that period is where my brain is at right now, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 8:11 PM, Maestrobjwa said: How's the honk lookin' on the EPS? (that period is where my brain is at right now, lol) Expand Honky tonk: 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Plenty of time but that is a signal on a 10 day eps mean 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/6/2022 at 4:51 AM, psuhoffman said: Agree with that, hence why I think we will likely need high lat help to get another favorable window later. Another -NAO period (assuming we don't go -5 stdv PNA again!) would likely do better later in winter when wavelengths start to shorten some and blocking can have even more impact on the flow. BTW my comment about the "stock nina" comments was not about you. You were really clear in your excellent post about the different options. But there have been some others that want to chalk the record -PNA in December off to "typical nina" and I guess I took issue with that since it was more than just a "nina" since we don't get that extreme a -PNA typically and as we both stated there are various "typical" nina patterns. Again, it wasn't your post...but there were some doing that recently. If you scroll through my twitter I kind of called one out the other day. But I feel bad because its someone I know is really an excellent source of info just thought the "its nina" stuff was overly simplistic and somewhat misleading. If that was a typical nina we would never snow in a nina lol. I love your posts btw! Some of the best on twitter. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Expand Thanks psu, means a lot. Trend of last 4 runs of GFS Ext for Jan 25th 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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