aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 On 1/4/2022 at 12:55 PM, leesburg 04 said: Feels like Sunday might be something to watch as well although it's mostly rain at the moment Welcome to yesterday at 12:55 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Better watch that Sun/Mon timeframe For what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Better watch that Sun/Mon timeframe For what? Think he is referring to mlk weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve seen some posts by even people I respect a lot implying we return to a strongly -epo because “Nina” which confuses me because that’s not actually an automatic Nina thing. I posted this on Twitter yesterday but it’s every Nina winter mean h5 since 1980. Yea the pac ridge is obvious and the +TNH and I’m not saying that’s a good look for snow here but it’s not necessarily a crazy -pna either. The NAM trough axis is actually more typically more east than it was. However, pointing out a “typical” Nina doesn’t necessarily translate to the current pac base state. Also hidden within that are actually 2 different Nina states. When there is a poleward epo ridge it NAO blocking (later in winter!) we tend to see the trough more east in North America. When the pac ridge is flat and or. +NAO we tend to see it west and a -pna and big SE ridge. I do agree the pac jet retracts and we get a retrogression off the NAM pattern. That’s not bad, that will give us a nice window during prime climo mid January! After that though I think depends on the high latitudes. Assuming we revert to the recent pac base state if the epo ridge dissipates and the NAO stays positive then we probably torch Feb. we don’t do slightly warm anymore. Any pattern that favors a ridge in the east means crazy warm anomalies recently. No reason to expect different. But I do think we get another period of high latitude help. Recent trends say it’s unlikely the AO stays positive the rest of winter. I also think the happenings in the pac had a lot to do with the coming +NAO. analog based pattern progression showed the NAO ridge was likely to retrograde to the pac side. It took longer than expected with the stalled mjo but the expected pattern progression seems to be resumed now. My best guess is we have to suffer a torch period at some point late Jan or Early Feb before things start to recycle up top. But I do think we get one more chance at snow after. Whether that’s Feb or we have to wait until March I don’t know. As grit eater says it’s all an educated guess at those ranges. But I’m sure it won’t be soon enough for some who start complaining about Sun angle by groundhogs day! PSU - here's the distinction I would draw...that Dec-Feb composite of the Nina winters is an average across the 3 months and many winters, and i've seen your separate posts about how NInas fall into a couple different categories - those are informative. In this case, rather than stating "stock Nina", they way I should have worded it in the twitter post is something along the lines of "I believe we will see a return to an enhanced convective signal in the E Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent in February...and that type of forcing, combined with a well-coupled, and 2nd year Nina will favor either a -PNA or +EPO type pattern.” So, it's just part of the 30 day or so cycle of the tropical forcing and how it impacts the pattern as opposed to it being a "stock Nina" idea. Anyway, appreciate the kind words in here from you all on the tweets, etc. I enjoy the discussion. Good luck tomorrow, and I think we will have a chance to keep a good pattern thru the end of the month, during the coldest climo of winter…and yes, February is a long ways off 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Think he is referring to mlk weekend No not that one (although that one could be something to watch too). He's talking about the Sun/Mon storm currently progged as rain trending a but colder on today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 32 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Think he is referring to mlk weekend No I’m talking about this weekend. Probably nothing, but not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 ICON would most definitely be a period of ice on Sunday for areas north of 66 and west of DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, griteater said: PSU - here's the distinction I would draw...that Dec-Feb composite of the Nina winters is an average across the 3 months and many winters, and i've seen your separate posts about how NInas fall into a couple different categories - those are informative. In this case, rather than stating "stock Nina", they way I should have worded it in the twitter post is something along the lines of "I believe we will see a return to an enhanced convective signal in the E Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent in February...and that type of forcing, combined with a well-coupled, and 2nd year Nina will favor either a -PNA or +EPO type pattern.” So, it's just part of the 30 day or so cycle of the tropical forcing and how it impacts the pattern as opposed to it being a "stock Nina" idea. Anyway, appreciate the kind words in here from you all on the tweets, etc. I enjoy the discussion. Good luck tomorrow, and I think we will have a chance to keep a good pattern thru the end of the month, during the coldest climo of winter…and yes, February is a long ways off Agree with that, hence why I think we will likely need high lat help to get another favorable window later. Another -NAO period (assuming we don't go -5 stdv PNA again!) would likely do better later in winter when wavelengths start to shorten some and blocking can have even more impact on the flow. BTW my comment about the "stock nina" comments was not about you. You were really clear in your excellent post about the different options. But there have been some others that want to chalk the record -PNA in December off to "typical nina" and I guess I took issue with that since it was more than just a "nina" since we don't get that extreme a -PNA typically and as we both stated there are various "typical" nina patterns. Again, it wasn't your post...but there were some doing that recently. If you scroll through my twitter I kind of called one out the other day. But I feel bad because its someone I know is really an excellent source of info just thought the "its nina" stuff was overly simplistic and somewhat misleading. If that was a typical nina we would never snow in a nina lol. I love your posts btw! Some of the best on twitter. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Oddly the guidance day 10-15 is hinting at more STJ than is typical of a nina on all 3 global ensembles. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Oddly the guidance day 10-15 is hinting at more STJ than is typical of a nina on all 3 global ensembles. This looks interesting....and nino lolhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022010600&fh=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Oddly the guidance day 10-15 is hinting at more STJ than is typical of a nina on all 3 global ensembles. Huh...Adds more intrigue to the MLK weekend idea (did somebody use the golden term Miller A earlier? Lol) But of course...usual Day 10 caveats apply. But you gotta think some stj would improve the odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ji said: This looks interesting....and nino lolhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2022010600&fh=240 Oh yes it does. That’s “incoming” right there. And I was saying in the zoom chat tonight how the pattern really looks way more like a Nino than Nina in the long range. We had a Nino that acted like a Nina recently so maybe we’re due. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh yes it does. That’s “incoming” right there. And I was saying in the zoom chat tonight how the pattern really looks way more like a Nino than Nina in the long range. We had a Nino that acted like a Nina recently so maybe we’re due. Oh dang there was a chat tonight? (Ah I'll check the other thread next time, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Continuing to look good mid month and beyond as the Nina has become more East based in a rather pronouned fashion. Favorable changes in the Pac near the Date Line ( MJO , some warming Nino 4 ) have presented a more increasingly Nino-ish outcome with a STJ influence. Moving forward next week we will have a declining NAO courtesy of a Atlantic wave breaking event while we await the positive PNA spike. Latest indications are the AO goes back to neutral to slightly negative which may then possibly lead to a - NAM state. This sets the stage for possible snow events mid month and beyond. Warming in Nino 4 recently. https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/status/1478098875567296520 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Anybody got the individual gefs or eps or both? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Little bit of a chilly airmass there at the end of the GFS run. Obviously, the end of an op run but with the projected pattern something extreme is on the table imo. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 LOL! can't make this up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: LOL! can't make this up Dude that's all the way at the 22nd...why post even pay attention to that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dude that's all the way at the 22nd...why post even pay attention to that? Lol Because regardless of date, its the most ridiculous model solution I've ever seen and thought it was hilarious? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: LOL! can't make this up Damn. Looks just like a map from 1985! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dude that's all the way at the 22nd...why post even pay attention to that? Lol You have to be joking with this comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Because regardless of date, its the most ridiculous model solution I've ever seen and thought it was hilarious? That seriously looks just like ‘85 And of course it really happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 25 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Little bit of a chilly airmass there at the end of the GFS run. Obviously, the end of an op run but with the projected pattern something extreme is on the table imo. Looks like an image from the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You have to be joking with this comment. What? I mean his comment made it sound like it was set in stone something, lol But reading again I guess it was more tongue-in-cheek. But this IS along range thread after...so I guess I take it back. Eta: Yep--misread the sarcasm, lol Apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 9 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Because regardless of date, its the most ridiculous model solution I've ever seen and thought it was hilarious? Yeah I see that now, lol I digress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 31 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Because regardless of date, its the most ridiculous model solution I've ever seen and thought it was hilarious? It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig 1 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig Geez... That's cold. What's the Euro look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig I bet there is still a warm nose somewhere in the column 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 42 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Looks like an image from the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" i'm glad i replaced the spark plugs on my jeep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig Hype post...you know this won't happen as depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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