TSG Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: STJ looks juicy for this one love these postage stamps, where can I buy? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, TSG said: love these postage stamps, where can I buy? You have to start with the 3 cent Mallard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I wonder if that system in about a week could produce a cutter into cad. The euro say maybe but needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Op GFS has a ridiculously negative AO/NAO in the period around the 20th, and the GEFS height anomalies are impressive for 300 hours out. GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. Do I hear beach blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. I hadn't even noticed the rest of that other than the anomalies at 500. In looking at it now, I couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. Big time WOOF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 The ensembles did a damn good job seeing the frontal wave potential all the way back prior to Christmas for the first 10 days January. They highlighted the potential 2 weeks ago. At that point we weren't sure which side of the boundary we'd be on but the pattern was nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 I’m patenting it Snomicron already CWG, so you have to credit me when you steal that 2 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: I’m patenting it Snomicron already CWG, so you have to credit me when you steal that i95 Mask. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 23 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Great thread from @griteateron where mid and late January may lead I’ve seen some posts by even people I respect a lot implying we return to a strongly -epo because “Nina” which confuses me because that’s not actually an automatic Nina thing. I posted this on Twitter yesterday but it’s every Nina winter mean h5 since 1980. Yea the pac ridge is obvious and the +TNH and I’m not saying that’s a good look for snow here but it’s not necessarily a crazy -pna either. The NAM trough axis is actually more typically more east than it was. However, pointing out a “typical” Nina doesn’t necessarily translate to the current pac base state. Also hidden within that are actually 2 different Nina states. When there is a poleward epo ridge it NAO blocking (later in winter!) we tend to see the trough more east in North America. When the pac ridge is flat and or. +NAO we tend to see it west and a -pna and big SE ridge. I do agree the pac jet retracts and we get a retrogression off the NAM pattern. That’s not bad, that will give us a nice window during prime climo mid January! After that though I think depends on the high latitudes. Assuming we revert to the recent pac base state if the epo ridge dissipates and the NAO stays positive then we probably torch Feb. we don’t do slightly warm anymore. Any pattern that favors a ridge in the east means crazy warm anomalies recently. No reason to expect different. But I do think we get another period of high latitude help. Recent trends say it’s unlikely the AO stays positive the rest of winter. I also think the happenings in the pac had a lot to do with the coming +NAO. analog based pattern progression showed the NAO ridge was likely to retrograde to the pac side. It took longer than expected with the stalled mjo but the expected pattern progression seems to be resumed now. My best guess is we have to suffer a torch period at some point late Jan or Early Feb before things start to recycle up top. But I do think we get one more chance at snow after. Whether that’s Feb or we have to wait until March I don’t know. As grit eater says it’s all an educated guess at those ranges. But I’m sure it won’t be soon enough for some who start complaining about Sun angle by groundhogs day! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS with a big loud DT WOOF for D10 (MLK weekend). -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO and a clear Miller A signal in the MSLP and precip. 12 minutes ago, nj2va said: Big time WOOF. Until the Euro shows it, it's all fracking bullsh*t! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: Until the Euro shows it, it's all fracking bullsh*t! Actually…peep 240 from the 12z… 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m patenting it Snomicron already CWG, so you have to credit me when you steal that Much better than "(J)anus" or "Nemo" or "Jonas"!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Man I'm tryin' to stay off of here but one peek at the Day 10 woof and now it's trying 5o draw me back in. No, no! Can't. Get. Sucked. IN!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually…peep 240 from the 12z… ALEET!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Yes please h/t @ORH_wxman 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: We take... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: Yes please h/t @ORH_wxman That’s after Snomicron. Snomega? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually…peep 240 from the 12z… I made the bad choice of looking at the 850mb temps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s after Snomicron. Snomega? Why do these new variants sound like old school bad guy transformer names? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 33 minutes ago, yoda said: I made the bad choice of looking at the 850mb temps It’s like 2* at day 10 from a big storm. And the euro is often slightly too warm in the cold sector of storms at that range. Showed a big rainstorm day 10 in Jan 2016 also and I made a post about not worrying and that setup as depicted would trend colder assuming the major longwave pattern features were correct. I’m not saying it’s a lock just that worrying about the exact thermal profile on day 10 ops is a total waste of time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 hours ago, mattie g said: Has he recovered from his quality call for Monday? His last call seemed pretty reasonable- a little under in the 6-8 isolated but not sure how just north and west of dc fared? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Better watch that Sun/Mon timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Better watch that Sun/Mon timeframe Why do you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Why do you say? The front is trending less positively tilted and it wouldn’t take much for a wave to develop to bring some snow. Not likely not a threat of a big storm but a sneaky threat worth watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 PDO index is in for December. Lowest OND readings since the mid-1950’s. Pretty cool if we can get any kind of decent winter with these values leading in: OCT -3.13 NOV -2.72 DEC -2.73 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do you say? Sorry hadn’t seen this. PSU explained it better than I could. Another aspect on the gfs is the initial precip wants to stay in some frozen form for the most part north of 66. And then as PSU explained … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Looks like a busy period ahead. Most likely 3 events in 7 days for the MA. Ops have plenty of chances throughout the next two weeks. I do see the dryish look on the ens but wonder how much of that is due to a cluster of members having the entire tpv dropping down for an extended period and crushing everything....skewing things drier on the mean? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 I’ll take this GEFS MSLP look for MLK weekend 10 days out. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The front is trending less positively tilted and it wouldn’t take much for a wave to develop to bring some snow. Not likely not a threat of a big storm but a sneaky threat worth watching. I’m not comparing the two directly, but from range I recall Monday’s event originally showing up as a weak anafrontal wave. I haven’t been following this at all, but I guess I will now… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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