Rhino16 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Is there a reason stuff seems to happen when the NAO changes from positive to negative and negative to positive? Or is that just the way weather works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Is there a reason stuff seems to happen when the NAO changes from positive to negative and negative to positive? Or is that just the way weather works? I've heard it echoed by the more experienced minds on here that a lot of our best storms come as the pattern starts to breakdown/reload...Now I'm guessing next week we'd be going from negative to neutral? (someone feel free to chime in) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Is there a reason stuff seems to happen when the NAO changes from positive to negative and negative to positive? Or is that just the way weather works? Yes, there's a very well studied reason. Heather Archambault did the initial research IIRC. You'll here the term "Archambault Event" around the forum. By simplist definition it's a big east coast storm that occurs during an NAO phase change. Our area likes it when the NAO goes from neg to neutral (or positive) 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Decent potential coming up. Like seeing this on the CFS weeklies: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 55 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Decent potential coming up. Like seeing this on the CFS weeklies: Trough might be a little too far east, but definitely a chilly look! Maybe clippers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Trough might be a little too far east, but definitely a chilly look! Maybe clippers? Maybe. Weak split out west with some waves undercutting the pna ridge. When you pump the PNA like that with a CPF extension the cold will be there in the East. A well-timed phase would work. But I wouldn't kick a clipper out of the sack either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Trough might be a little too far east, but definitely a chilly look! Maybe clippers? That’s a pretty damn cold look. If we can score a little snow as that settles in, then even it stays dry, we could have a couple weeks of a really wintry feel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 06z GFS says most of us are below freezing for highs on Monday... may stay in the 10s in the mountains and mid 20s for most on Tuesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Super LR 06z GFS - about Day 12 on - sends us to the freezer... highs in the 20s for the rest of the run with lows single digits for most with some teens in metros... looks like some below zero nights Day 14 to Day 16 in the region as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 Long range euro looks dry after the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 55 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Long range euro looks dry after the weekend. You seem angry a bit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Long range euro looks dry after the weekend. So does WB 6Z GEFS. Chilly, but dry. But we can enjoy the expected 2-4 in the short range, and hope something pops in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You seem angry a bit Shut it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: So does WB 6Z GEFS. Chilly, but dry. But we can enjoy the expected 2-4 in the short range, and hope something pops in the long range. Thing about that upper level nw flow is that it is gonna be dry most of the time. Need snow on the ground to make it tolerable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 WB 6Z GEFS 10 day mean snowfall is not a shutout (looking at the period after this Friday.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Maybe. Weak split out west with some waves undercutting the pna ridge. When you pump the PNA like that with a CPF extension the cold will be there in the East. A well-timed phase would work. But I wouldn't kick a clipper out of the sack either. Yeah, looking a bit more closely there is some separation with the pumped-up PNA ridge where you could sneak a shortwave through. And I certainly wouldn't kick a clipper out of the sack either, LOL! 10 hours ago, mattie g said: That’s a pretty damn cold look. If we can score a little snow as that settles in, then even it stays dry, we could have a couple weeks of a really wintry feel. Definitely would be cold. I was being a bit snarky with my "chilly" comment but it would be nice to have a couple of wintry feeling weeks (and not just cold/dry if we can manage it!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Per the latest zones... DCA is forecasted to reach highs around 30 on Tuesday. That would be the first time in a while of a subfreezing high at DCA, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Like I said though, -PNA popped, pattern changes to cold after 36hrs.. which makes me feel less good that it hasn't happened already. It will happen though it's too short term, but blah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Watch the gravity over the SW Rocky mountains/warm Denver over the next few years. (We really need a Strong El Nino to even things out) We had a peak -PDO in the 1950s, didn't even out until 72-73, (65-66 was a -PNA El Nino) so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Don't underestimate this one.. even as starting as snow briefly, everyone loves a good +PNA(not going to trend warmer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5, 2022 Author Share Posted January 5, 2022 I wonder if that system in about a week could produce a cutter into cad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 GFS Fantasy Storm WB 12Z for 2 weeks out. Week of 16th as already indicated by many is one to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: GFS Fantasy Storm WB 12Z for 2 weeks out. Week of 16th as already indicated by many is one to watch. This is the one I was alerting everyone to yesterday with me traveling and specifically watching the time period because of flights etc.. been showing on accuweather no joke for like over a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, yoda said: Has he recovered from his quality call for Monday? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Op GFS has a ridiculously negative AO/NAO in the period around the 20th, and the GEFS height anomalies are impressive for 300 hours out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 4 hours ago, yoda said: Per the latest zones... DCA is forecasted to reach highs around 30 on Tuesday. That would be the first time in a while of a subfreezing high at DCA, yes? Coldest max last winter at DCA was 31, with a few other days at 32; no days at or below 32 in winter 2020. The last time we spent a full day below 30 was early Feb 2019, so hopefully the cold air pans out the next few weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, WinterFire said: Coldest max last winter at DCA was 31, with a few other days at 32; no days at or below 32 in winter 2020. The last time we spent a full day below 30 was early Feb 2019, so hopefully the cold air pans out the next few weeks! Yea getting cold has been an issue recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 5, 2022 Share Posted January 5, 2022 STJ looks juicy for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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