WinterWxLuvr Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Muffins. I'll post the context in about 2 hours. Give me a sec. I like a muffin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM is like the warm up act. Nobody really takes it seriously, but we need to be entertained while we wait for the varsity models. It is the Carrot Top of weather models 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 I'll take the 12z NAM in a heartbeat. This is a relatively fast moving system, but it falls at night and could give folks a surprise 3 day weekend. What's not to like? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM is like the warm up act. Nobody really takes it seriously, but we need to be entertained while we wait for the varsity models. Exactly. Let us see that 12z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: My benchmark is a solid advisory level event, 4" - 6". When did you move to upstate NY? 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: I'll take the 12z NAM in a heartbeat. This is a relatively fast moving system, but it falls at night and could give folks a surprise 3 day weekend. What's not to like? It “isn’t a warning level snowfall” is typically the issue for the usual suspects. Not sure why that’s become the bar for so many. A nice 4-6” event far inland with 2-4” closer to 95 is still a nice snowfall we should very much be welcoming - especially in a setup that typically goes wrong for our area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: It “isn’t a warning level snowfall” is typically the issue for the usual suspects. Not sure why that’s become the bar for so many. A nice 4-6” event far inland with 2-4” closer to 95 is still a nice snowfall we should very much be welcoming - especially in a setup that typically goes wrong for our area I just want the grass covered, 4" of snow. Also, potential snow on Christmas decorations! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: That you can't complain anymore? I'll save this post for the next time we get 8" of snow and you get none. I guess I should say IF that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 That NAM snow map is starting to show the Bob Chill middle finger hint.....jus sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Much better for us for sure. About .7-.8 precip as snow. We take. I'm not buying it, but that would be a great event as depicted. Just give me enough to shovel and sled with the kids and some cold temps behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 looks like it id coming in HOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said: looks like it id coming in HOT Yea Icon is a healthy a** storm for 81 corridor headed up toward the dc crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I'm not buying it, but that would be a great event as depicted. Just give me enough to shovel and sled with the kids and some cold temps behind it. Its a perfect track for us. Which means it probably wont happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That NAM snow map is starting to show the Bob Chill middle finger hint.....jus sayin It has that weird lead wave thing it had at 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The good news about this one so long as the track holds up is that its mostly pretty chilled this week and cold leading into the storm. We shouldnt waste many flakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The ICON might be the new high water mark for this storm thus far on that 12z run. Waiting for the accumulated precip/corresponding snow maps to update. Pretty textbook warning+ level event 81 to 95 and up the coast. Great low track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: The good news about this one so long as the track holds up is that its mostly pretty chilled this week and cold leading into the storm. We shouldnt waste many flakes. see you next week at the office 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 ICON looks stronger at 500 almost perfection 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said: ICON looks stronger at 500 almost perfection Textbook for a N/S system and that tilt at our lat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I'll save this post for the next time we get 8" of snow and you get none. I guess I should say IF that happens. I don't complain about something that is not expected in the first place - you should try it! Someone 100 miles NW of DC getting 8" and us zippy is as likely as the sun rising in the east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: ICON looks stronger at 500 almost perfection Very similar evolution of last storm wrt LP placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM likes Richmond for this one. Solid 4 incher region wide though. And of course another very close fringe job for Hagerstown to Winchester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 RGEM likes Richmond for this one. Solid 4 incher region wide though. And of course another very close fringe job for Hagerstown to Winchester. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I don't complain about something that is not expected in the first place - you should try it! Someone 100 miles NW of DC getting 8" and us zippy is as likely as the sun rising in the east Lol. Ok. Pretty sure we average 2X your snow. So we should expect to be blanked by a SECS? We are 70 miles from DC btw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 i'm ready to sign off on the nam. i don't need a blizzard right now. northern stream systems can work (like they can work in iowa). we just need a good vort pass underneath us to allow for a little bit of atlantic influence (gulf tap is a bonus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i'm ready to sign off on the nam. i don't need a blizzard right now. northern stream systems can work (like they can work in iowa). we just need a good vort pass underneath us to allow for a little bit of atlantic influence (gulf tap is a bonus). We get lucky on the NAM. It could easily screw us with its jump to the coast. It would have to be timed perfectly for it to work out the way it is showing. I would much rather have a consolidated storm passing through southern VA for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 kinda looks like a hybrid anyway (like 75% B, or something like that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: We get lucky on the NAM. It could easily screw us with its jump to the coast. It would have to be timed perfectly for it to work out the way it is showing. I would much rather have a consolidated storm passing through southern VA for us. Agreed, the ICON is pretty ideal and the 6z GFS would do. ICON was a great run just a few minutes ago, but can the GFS follow suit. Definitely 2 ways to fail, Miller B screw job or RGEMesque de-amped progressive system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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