January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mappy]

17 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I think just about all of us who were fringed yesterday want to lock up what the GFS is offering.

I have to wait for PSU to give me the go-ahead  but yes!

[WxUSAF]

With this set up, going to be much more of a classic tendency for a N shift in the last 48 hours. Doesn’t mean it will be huge, but that’s the way I’d hedge for now. Factors playing into that will be the strength of our shortwave and its position relative to northern stream waves that are suppressing the flow enough to push it south of our latitude. If you were on @psuhoffmans first zoom chat, recall he was saying that a 500mb track along the VA/NC border was classic for DC. 6z GFS takes the shortwave on a Roanoke—Richmond—OCMD route. The slight northward component to that route indicates it’s negatively tilted at our latitude, which will help bring Atlantic moisture onshore.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

06z GFS is tasty... warning even for most of the region... 4-8"

06z GFS usually comes in dry or warm it seems. Everyone panics then 12z calms folks down. To see it give us a decent event gives me hope. Also, GFS seems to handle northern stream storms better than the Euro. 

[NorthArlington101]

06z EURO — similar to 00z but a bit juicer.

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I think just about all of us who were fringed yesterday want to lock up what the GFS is offering.

Yes. Yes for sure.

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

06z EURO — similar to 00z but a bit juicer.

That one I hate for us who just got hosed. That’s a re-hosing.

[NorthArlington101]

That one I hate for us who just got hosed. That’s a re-hosing.

Atmospheric memory /a

[Heisy]

Hey @psuhoffman

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Hey @psuhoffman

Been watching this period for a few days now. The ens have been popping a system underneath us during this period for several days now. Best mapped lr ens potential in a while. What do they say? The big ones get sniffed out early? 

[Eskimo Joe]

RE: Thursday event 

 

[H2O]

16 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

That one I hate for us who just got hosed. That’s a re-hosing.

That snow map is wonky. It ain’t gonna be drier for that N MD area like it shows

[H2O]

NE MD always gets the P word

[jayyy]

This storm has increase totals as we get closer to the event written all over it. Have a feeling we’ll be looking at a warning event by the time 00z Thursday rolls around.   

[Bob Chill]

20 minutes ago, jayyy said:

This storm has increase totals as we get closer to the event written all over it. Have a feeling we’ll be looking at a warning event by the time 00z Thursday rolls around.   

It's a fast mover and much drier leading in than yesterday's. Progressive middle of the road NS shortwaves that never go negative or close off until N of our latitude almost always have a modest ceiling and a widespread warning event is usually above that ceiling. 

This storm is more on the dynamics side and less on the easier to predict moisture transport side. Tricky. These types of shortwave love to have a "middle finger" somewhere just north of where the low jumps from land to water... my yard has been in that middle finger more than I want to admit...

[NorthArlington101]

06z EPS ens essentially unchanged:

[Buddy1987]

34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Been watching this period for a few days now. The ens have been popping a system underneath us during this period for several days now. Best mapped lr ens potential in a while. What do they say? The big ones get sniffed out early? 

I’m going on vacation to Downeast Maine beginning 1/19 and I see at the end of the GFS run it has a system diving into the Plains. This has been a period that I’ve been watching closely, just because of travel worries and it has consistently for a good month plus shown the 19th-21st as a potential from our area northward. Another thing to watch down the line here. 

[jayyy]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a fast mover and much drier leading in than yesterday's. Progressive middle of the road NS shortwaves that never go negative or close off until N of our latitude almost always have a ceiling and a widespread warning event is usually above that ceiling. 

This storm is more on the dynamics side and less on the easier to predict moisture transport side. Tricky. These types of shortwave love to have a "middle finger" somewhere just north of where the low jumps from land to water... my yard has been in that middle finger more than I want to admit...

NEMD and points NE type storm

[clskinsfan]

9 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Color me shocked....and pale green.

Yeah. If I get fringed again I am taking a break from the hobby for a while. I dont think we will get fringed this time though. The precip shield is going to be more expansive with this system I think. But seeing the same spot jack twice in a row would be a kick in the nuts.

[WxUSAF]

35 minutes ago, H2O said:

That snow map is wonky. It ain’t gonna be drier for that N MD area like it shows

 

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a fast mover and much drier leading in than yesterday's. Progressive middle of the road NS shortwaves that never go negative or close off until N of our latitude almost always have a modest ceiling and a widespread warning event is usually above that ceiling. 

This storm is more on the dynamics side and less on the easier to predict moisture transport side. Tricky. These types of shortwave love to have a "middle finger" somewhere just north of where the low jumps from land to water... my yard has been in that middle finger more than I want to admit...

So, why is central and NE MD getting the finger on the Euro but not on the GFS?  It all comes down to the strength of the shortwave and hence how the surface low shifts to the coast and redevelops.  This is comparing the 6z GFS and 0z Euro of TT to make the maps easiest to compare.  6z Euro is a bit stronger than 0z, but the same general pattern holds.  

Look at how much deeper the GFS is with the shortwave as it moves into the Midwest (lower heights depicted with a deeper blue color). 522 dm height on the Euro is up in northern MI, whereas its over Chicago on the GFS.  

 

Then look at how that feeds down to the surface depiction.  GFS has a more consolidated low pressure down South, while the Euro has this baggy mess that's half onshore and half offshore.  This isn't the ideal frame to compare (would rather 12 hours later), but you get the idea.  That baggy mess creates a ragged precip field, with one area (the part down south and west of the Apps) falling apart as the coastal is getting going to our northeast.  And we get caught in the middle.  This is a very normal thing for Miller B storms!!  And Ninas!!  So, certainly is possible.  We want a consolidated stronger storm, but not *too* strong so it would cut more west.   

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

NEMD and points NE type storm

Could be. Always hard to say. A lot of complicated stuff happens quickly (and closely) with these systems. It's why they are known to bust in the short range because our latitude is just south of where the coastal can dump.

 

Not saying I think this is what will happen but through history, these storms love to paint 2 stripes of ok snow west and east (winterwxluvr and CAPE) and not much in-between. Wnwxluvr will be reporting mod snow for a few hours with 2-3" piling up quick but it doesn't "extrapolate" eastward. It collapses and re-ignites.

I think most will get accum snow but heady expectations may steal the fun for some 

[clskinsfan]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude you live in one of the dryest spots on the east coast!!!

On top of that its obvious from your posts that you live in a local meso scale oragraphically induced minimum within the larger regional minimum.  But you live in the shadow effect of the 4,500 foot Allegheny ridge in WV, one of the highest areas of consistent elevation in the apps.  You're in one of the worst shadow effect regions there is in the entire east coast.  But you expect that to suddenly stop or something?  Any system with a westerly flow is going to dry up to some extent in your area.  Unless you find a way to get rid of those ridges to your west.  The only setup where you typically will do better that other areas in our region wrt precip is with a slow moving coastal where you get some easterly component to the flow and it banks up against the ridges to your west.  Storms like 2016 and the first 2 in 2009-10 are where you can do very well.  But weaker systems coming from the west and southwest...well you KNOW how thats going to go. 

While true we also live in one of the snowiest areas in the region. So while we do struggle for rain in throughout the spring and summer due to fronts drying up over the mountains. We usually do well in the winter with precip due to the normal track of systems from the southwest up either the coastal plain or coast itself. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 This is comparing the 6z GFS and 0z Euro of TT to make the maps easiest to compare.  6z Euro is a bit stronger than 0z, but the same general pattern holds.  

Wonder if the GFS will lead again by 24 hours on its outcome based on the possibility of it doing better in sampling the shortwave. Will be cool to watch.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

While true we also live in one of the snowiest areas in the region. So while we do struggle for rain in throughout the spring and summer due to fronts drying up over the mountains. We usually do well in the winter with precip due to the normal track of systems from the southwest up either the coastal plain or coast itself. 

We have been below normal precip 9 of the past 12 months.

[jayyy]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

We have been below normal precip 9 of the past 12 months.

Think that’s his point. 

[jayyy]

Thursday Night

Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
 

Now, let us get that 6Z GFS RGEM depiction and we’re cash money!  

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We have been below normal precip 9 of the past 12 months.

Yeah. I should have added to the above post that Northern stream dominated winters are not our thing either. So getting screwed in a Nina shouldnt be a surprise for us out here. 

[jayyy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

06z GFS usually comes in dry or warm it seems. Everyone panics then 12z calms folks down. To see it give us a decent event gives me hope. Also, GFS seems to handle northern stream storms better than the Euro. 

12z should be out shortly. Shellacking incoming?

[Fozz]

Just now, jayyy said:

12z should be out shortly. Shellacking incoming?

I hope so, but I am skeptical. That Euro scenario with the strung out mess can't be dismissed, especially in a Nina. Hopefully the initial system is robust like the GFS shows.

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I hope so, but I am skeptical. That Euro scenario with the strung out mess can't be dismissed, especially in a Nina. Hopefully the initial system is robust like the GFS shows.

My biggest concern with this storm for sure, northern stream driven system in a Nina. 

[jayyy]

Just now, Fozz said:

I hope so, but I am skeptical. That Euro scenario with the strung out mess can't be dismissed, especially in a Nina. Hopefully the initial system is robust like the GFS shows.

Absolutely.  These storms that involve good timing and phasing aren’t typically our specialty around these parts, but anything’s possible! We have time on our side here, seeing as the storm is only roughly 60 hours out and we have some decent agreement on the models. Still plenty of time for things to change but not much.