NorthArlington101 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 AKQ will be cautious and wait for 0z runs. LWX probably the same. My guess. I don’t think we’ll ever see a WSW out of this one, even for RIC, imo. AKQ is a cautious office and you have to dismiss the 5”+ runs as outliers, especially given the reality that rain is preceding the storm and temps are cooperative enough but not frigid. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 @WxUSAF btw this is the scenario to test “can we get cold”. If we get a PV split, pna/epo ridge with the cold currently built up in Canada and don’t get some serious cold period from it…then it’s time to just give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 The bar has been lowered quite a bit from the golden years of the 2010s. "Can we get cold". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said: The bar has been lowered quite a bit from the golden years of the 2010s. "Can we get cold". The bar on your posts can’t get any lower. 1 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: The bar on your posts can’t get any lower. You are the one who understood it before I did. You even admitted that we are f***ed. I started to enjoy your posts for a brief moment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Chincoteague would be a good chase spot tomorrow for any snow starved weenies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Juicy 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Big +PNA dropping in GFSensembles hr156. Do you know that in the satelite era (since 1948) all major anomalious blocks, have turned to negative anomaly after? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 1, 2022 Author Share Posted January 1, 2022 When the talk goes to warnings and threads it’s time for me to watch football. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, StormchaserChuck! said: Big +PNA dropping in GFSensembles hr156. Do you know that in the satelite era (since 1948) all major anomalious blocks, have turned to negative anomaly after? You are the PNA man. Great calls on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: Juicy Based on that….it will be snowing across the street from my house 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: You are the PNA man. Great calls on it Yeah, I would probably live in Hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 39 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: If it's not region-wide then I have mixed feelings about starting a thread. I've come a long way from my degenerate weenie days. This storm is playing us like a fiddle. I cannot wait to see the disappointment. I haven't had a good tracking opportunity in years and I'm sure this will disappoint but I'm allowing myself to get excited at the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 First storm is interesting for the SE parts of the forum but watch the temps. We saw this last year…red flag when the NAM in range is above freezing for a lot of the event. 12Z Monday NAM v. GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just got a lightning strike alert 9mi from my house. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF btw this is the scenario to test “can we get cold”. If we get a PV split, pna/epo ridge with the cold currently built up in Canada and don’t get some serious cold period from it…then it’s time to just give up. Yup, I’ve been having this same thought. The possible cold shots advertised next weekend and the week after *should* be good enough for widespread teens for lows and sub freezing highs even without snow cover. We’ll see… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: First storm is interesting for the SE parts of the forum but watch the temps. We saw this last year…red flag when the NAM in range is above freezing for a lot of the event. 12Z Monday NAM v. GFS. Can’t really compare those panels as verbatim….Nam has basically zero precip vs the gfs pushing .75” of liquid. I wouldn’t doubt the Nam being cold enough if it had the gfs precip at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 @PrinceFrederickWx I told you this would happen when I moved! LOL… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: Can’t really compare those panels as verbatim….Nam has basically zero precip vs the gfs pushing .75” of liquid. I wouldn’t doubt the Nam being cold enough if it had the gfs precip at the same time. I don’t think so…3K NAM has precip at 12Z but is too warm both at 850 and the surface. The point I am trying to make is it is cold enough further North but precip is light. Where the heaviest precipitation is it is too warm on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Euro definitely moved NW from 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Looks like the Dec 2018 storm on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Still sucks for North crew…but sucks less 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Euro definitely moved NW from 0z Verbatim on the snow maps, 0.1” line gets to DC. Good enough to see some flakes flying. Another bump north certainly possible. Let’s see what it shows for the end of week threat too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Looks like the Dec 2018 storm on the Euro That’s the one that gave EZF like 8 inches and DCA was cloudy, right? Ugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Verbatim on the snow maps, 0.1” line gets to DC. Good enough to see some flakes flying. Another bump north certainly possible. Let’s see what it shows for the end of week threat too. I wonder if we have reached max bumpage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 Just now, IUsedToHateCold said: That’s the one that gave EZF like 8 inches and DCA was cloudy, right? Ugh Yes and thank you for noticing Art…the little lights did not twinkle at my house for that one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF btw this is the scenario to test “can we get cold”. If we get a PV split, pna/epo ridge with the cold currently built up in Canada and don’t get some serious cold period from it…then it’s time to just give up. Agreed...Seeing some legit, serious cold would be a huge relief! At least it would mean things aren't completely broken, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, rjvanals said: Looks like the Dec 2018 storm on the Euro That's the last time I had any snow. Last year during that one storm we got mostly sleet pellets and it didn't even cover the grass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 It's good to see that the euro is finally in. Caved to the GFS. Now it just needs to happen. Kind of sad to get excited about 3" of snow but that's where we're at now with AGW. If it covers the grass I'll consider it a resounding success. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: I really hope the GFS pulls this one off not only because it gives us more snow but because it will be amazing to see the GFS win against every other model. I’m high pressure watching. We don’t need 1040+ radiating in from west. Too strong and shoves it out. I’m hoping we are at 1025 come crunch time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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