H2O Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowfan said: RGEM loves the backside hit. Who doesn’t? 5 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 There were so many options on how to reply to that post. Happy New Year’s Eve 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, H2O said: Who doesn’t? Channeling your inner @ravensrule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 There were so many options on how to reply to that post. Happy New Year’s Eve Keep the thread about weather please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 RGEM often seems as amped or more amped than the NAM. It's about as useful as the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Euro looking good for OC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 54 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Channeling your inner @ravensrule I had the exact same thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Nina's are famous for southern sliders/beach blizzards...my guess is that is how this ends up. Another year where the beach and Brownsville Texas get snow before we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 blah this (notice GFS ensembles are much different from OP) then this I do think there is a tendency for LR models to overdo -PNA/bias+PNA-closer term after Jan 15. It may even be a neutral/+PDO Pacific (pattern) until sometime in February. Will be interesting to see if the NAO evens it, it's the wild card for Jan 15-31, +NAO signal Feb 7-9, so we might carry right through now to that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Those crazy Canadians 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Could be noise but I see more digging with the short wave at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 60 too. Again noise maybe but hey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 And 66. Hmmmm…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Definitely better at h5 66 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 60 too. Again noise maybe but hey First post in a long time. DEF more juiced at 60/66. Goods coming in on that look for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Its back on the GFS, too far south of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Good stuff still S and E of metros down in northern neck/tidewater 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Well it’s better..for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Good stuff still S and E of metros down in northern neck/tidewater Wouldn’t take a huge adjustment..but that might not be possible this late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Good stuff still S and E of metros down in northern neck/tidewater Still plenty of time for Synoptics and precip field to adjust nicely. Just based on the 72hr map should be a nice shield over a good portion of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Well it’s better..for some. Yeah, Richmond crew should be loving this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Wouldn’t take a huge adjustment..but that might not be possible this lateI wouldn’t get excited if I was in the tidewater, either. GFS/RGEM being the only things that show substantial accumulation is iffy, IMO. Especially how heavy it shows it and with this being a rain/snow flaky situation. Not quite sure how models resolve when the changeover occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Wouldn’t take a huge adjustment..but that might not be possible this late Just now, Buddy1987 said: Still plenty of time for Synoptics and precip field to adjust nicely. Just based on the 72hr map should be a nice shield over a good portion of us. The problem is that the GFS seems to be the only one doing anything interesting with it. I mean, yeah..RGEM..but....RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I'm trying not to get too invested in this but that 12Z tho. Still not going to charge up the Muck Truck until warnings are hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The problem is that the GFS seems to be the only one doing anything interesting with it. I mean, yeah..RGEM..but....RGEM It’s either onto something or on something….see what I did there with the word play….I’m on fire today 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: The problem is that the GFS seems to be the only one doing anything interesting with it. I mean, yeah..RGEM..but....RGEM Lmao! I remember (and you can call me crazy) RGEM scoring a win or two at least down this way last year. So far for my scoring purposes 12z trends are our friends. 2/2 between the RGEM and GFS. Euro on board at 12z may be sniffing something coming together. Gotta play this one positive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 hours ago, Wonderdog said: What is the criteria for ranking the various models? I believe that the GFS has been advertising this particular storm for at least five days and the EURO started showing the storm yesterday. Yes, the GFS has been all over the place wrt impact on the Mid-Atlantic but it seems to be in lockstep with the EURO this morning, with the EURO catching up with the GFS. And is the EURO finished with its corrections? Still two or three model runs to go. (And the GFS has improved ever so slightly in the last 6 hours). it just seems to lack consistency and is a day behind the euro (generalizing). i mean, the gfs literally showed a major snowstorm in richmond yesterday, then backed off at 06z and now it looks like it's showing it again. it just seems a little bouncier than the euro. not saying it isn't a good model (i'm sure the stats will show it as #2), but if you had only 1 model to rely on which would you choose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 If a storm does exist like on the 12z GFS we could see a legit north trend that lets us get a decent amount of snow. Probably nothing major though. The main issue as others have said is that only the GFS and RGEM show a storm that even has the possibility to trend better for us. Once the Euro, Canadian or NAMs get on board then we can be excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Article from Capital Weather Gang on January weather outlook. Calls for near normal snowfall. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/12/31/dc-january-weather-outlook-2022/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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