Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Hard to see the Eastern Shore in this pic. Congrats Chincoteague. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 53 minutes ago, Ji said: this is one of those storms that can legit trend north. Not the other 20 storms weve had that had no chance to go north The main issue with this storm is whether there will be one. If it actually exists, I agree with you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 54 minutes ago, Ji said: this is one of those storms that can legit trend north. Not the other 20 storms weve had that had no chance to go north I agree, and I'd feel really good about where it sits on the GFS if it wasn't for the fact it's on an island by itself in both track and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z RGEM was a huge shift and has some snow when the run stops at hr84. FWIW (not much) There is certainly more of a trend toward an actual storm as opposed to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Hard to see the Eastern Shore in this pic. You know it’s gonna be painful to have warning level snows one County below us… I’m just getting you mentally ready for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: But the pac looks good…isn’t that what everyone wanted??? Just for educational purposes, what is the mechanism for the warm air in the conus with that look? I assume that there is a AK vortex and I know that "cuts off the cold air" but how? As someone else mentioned the streamlines are straight from the Northwest Territories. Not questioning the model's math, just seeking to understand the mechanics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 28 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You know it’s gonna be painful to have warning level snows one County below us… I’m just getting you mentally ready for it That would make a road trip a piece of cake. But I have a feeling it's time we caught a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Booooom, jackpot, WTF did I miss!? Screw my petunias, off to Valhalla with them. I'm all in now. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 44 minutes ago, BristowWx said: You know it’s gonna be painful to have warning level snows one County below us… I’m just getting you mentally ready for it Dont worry, if it happens I'll be uploading copious pics to the board. And to be sure, my heart is going to be broken at some point here. Better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 25 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Just for educational purposes, what is the mechanism for the warm air in the conus with that look? I assume that there is a AK vortex and I know that "cuts off the cold air" but how? As someone else mentioned the streamlines are straight from the Northwest Territories. Not questioning the model's math, just seeking to understand the mechanics. I dont have access to the 360 Euro maps. But that map he posted was an 850 temp anomaly map. You cant really see anything about surface temps with that map. And the anomaly is only 1C above average which would lead me to believe we are below freezing at 850 on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The potential storm aside, any thoughts about the mid-long term pattern? Seems as if the GEFS was maybe backing away from the ledge a bit on an immediate return to the "Arctic Low" regime perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Gfs ensembles are semi supportive of the OP. Want to see if the euro makes a move at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 EURO took maybe a slightly more NW jog, I can’t see many changes at 500mb but I’m hardly a pro. Surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO took maybe a slightly more NW jog, I can’t see many changes at 500mb but I’m hardly a pro. Surface map. What did 12z look like at the same time stamp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO took maybe a slightly more NW jog, I can’t see many changes at 500mb but I’m hardly a pro. Surface map. Do you see h5 maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 What did 12z look like at the same time stamp?Slightly further SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Do you see h5 maps? this do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 overall, this event is certainly a "thread the needle" type storm, but things still look interesting given today's trend of a stronger, slower SS vort with less NS interaction. a GFS-like solution can't be discarded at this juncture it looks like the American models are doing a decent job with this, as the ECMWF and RGEM took some steps towards the GFS/NAM. the 18z ECMWF made a nice shift towards a more favorable solution: of course, this remains rather unlikely, but I think it's worth looking to see if the 00z runs continue this trend 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: this do? Yeah not bad. Thanks. Need to move that whole thing west a bit. This will be interesting to see what actually happens. Euro should be deadly at this range. I’m not optimistic for NOVA seeing that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Yeah not bad. Thanks. Need to move that whole thing west a bit. This will be interesting to see what actually happens. Euro should be deadly at this range. I’m not optimistic for NOVA seeing that map. Yeah, it's going to be close. But we have plenty of time. Of course we don't want to much of an adjustment to the west, or it might be raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yeah not bad. Thanks. Need to move that whole thing west a bit. This will be interesting to see what actually happens. Euro should be deadly at this range. I’m not optimistic for NOVA seeing that map. Th euro deadly? Outside 24 hours? Hasn’t been the case much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, Wonderdog said: Yeah, it's going to be close. But we have plenty of time. Of course we don't want to much of an adjustment to the west, or it might be raining. Westward Ho is what we say around here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Th euro deadly? Outside 24 hours? Hasn’t been the case much Yeah you’re right. I can’t shake the old days from my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Yeah, it's going to be close. But we have plenty of time. Of course we don't want to much of an adjustment to the west, or it might be raining. Fair enough. Even as depicted 3 inches for us would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Fair enough. Even as depicted 3 inches for us would be epic. Go for the gold. You only live once, especially in a nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Westward Ho is what we say around here I haven’t been west in years tho? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I haven’t been west in years tho? You can’t take my posts personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I haven’t been west in years tho? Mexico is west of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: Mexico is west of here I don't know what you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I don't know what you mean. Nvmd. Went for a joke that was funnier in my head than typed. I just don’t want it to ho westward too much 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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