January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[87storms]

  On 12/29/2021 at 6:15 PM, poolz1 said:

Lol...I am to the point where I just want something other than a nina.  This hobby gets tiresome in years like this.  We'll earn every damn flake we see this year no doubt.

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if it wasn't for moving and starting a new job this year, amongst other things, i'd probably care more, but at this point i'm just happy to be able to bike/hoop so deep into the season.  i'm definitely craving a snowstorm, though.  i don't think nina is gonna move too much this season (noaa has it lasting through prime), but the pacific seems active enough that maybe a well timed zonal vort could work out, if nothing else.

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/29/2021 at 6:19 PM, Prestige Worldwide said:

woah what’s that I see?

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Cold and dry

[Ji]

10 day euro already showing the disaster when you dont have atlantic blocking.

[psuhoffman]

The long range has a very 2015 look to it. People like to throw 2014 around as a totally pac driven year but we had a pretty decent look up top most of the first 2/3 of that winter. Certainly not what was driving it but like I’ve said it’s a balancing act. A great pac and decent high latitudes is a good trade off. 2015 was a good pac and pretty awful high latitude look which is similar to what the eps and gefs is spitting out now. I’ve said I thought 2015 was a fluke because there isn’t much historical support for that look working here. But I guess we will put that to the test. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/29/2021 at 7:06 PM, Ji said:

10 day euro already showing the disaster when you dont have atlantic blocking.

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Well to be fair the op euro also retrogrades the pac ridge into asia then slides the vortex currently near Japan over into Ak which floods pac puke across the conus. The ensembles don’t favor that as of right now but that would be a disaster. Essentially a bad pac and Atlantic at the same time. 
 

I do agree that people are being way too pacific focused lately. It’s recency bias. And I get it. We’ve actually had a favorable Atlantic much of the last 2 years and it’s not done much good. The pac has been so awful, and I do think the warmer base state of the pac and the globe makes it harder to overcome a bad pac.  But people are forgetting how frustrating the inverse can be also. There weren’t a lot of dots in the +pna +AO side of that 4” snows scatter plot either!  Truth is we need some cooperation from both the pac AND the HL if we want a high probability snow pattern. 

[Ji]

  On 12/29/2021 at 7:26 PM, psuhoffman said:

Well to be fair the op euro also retrogrades the pac ridge into asia then slides the vortex currently near Japan over into Ak which floods pac puke across the conus. The ensembles don’t favor that as of right now but that would be a disaster. Essentially a bad pac and Atlantic at the same time. 
 

I do agree that people are being way too pacific focused lately. It’s recency bias. And I get it. We’ve actually had a favorable Atlantic much of the last 2 years and it’s not done much good. The pac has been so awful, and I do think the warmer base state of the pac and the globe makes it harder to overcome a bad pac.  But people are forgetting how frustrating the inverse can be also. There weren’t a lot of dots in the +pna +AO side of that 4” snows scatter plot either!  Truth is we need some cooperation from both the pac AND the HL if we want a high probability snow pattern. 

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lol i meant in terms of how that D10 storm behaved...but yea...having a vortex back into alaska...after all that would probably be game over . I do expect NAO blocking to come back again this winter though. i dont think its a one and done!

[anotherman]

  On 12/29/2021 at 7:19 PM, psuhoffman said:

The long range has a very 2015 look to it. People like to throw 2014 around as a totally pac driven year but we had a pretty decent look up top most of the first 2/3 of that winter. Certainly not what was driving it but like I’ve said it’s a balancing act. A great pac and decent high latitudes is a good trade off. 2015 was a good pac and pretty awful high latitude look which is similar to what the eps and gefs is spitting out now. I’ve said I thought 2015 was a fluke because there isn’t much historical support for that look working here. But I guess we will put that to the test. 

You mean late January through early March of 2015? Because that was awesome.

[GramaxRefugee]

  On 12/29/2021 at 7:33 PM, anotherman said:

You mean late January through early March of 2015? Because that was awesome.

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Feb 2015...Only 1979 was colder at IAD. Only 1934 was colder at BWI/Balto.

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/29/2021 at 7:33 PM, anotherman said:

You mean late January through early March of 2015? Because that was awesome.

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Yea but that was a Nino so more stj and a tpv got displaced into Quebec which acted as de facto blocking on the flow. I wouldn’t expect the same results from that same longwave pattern absent those 2 nuances 

[leo2000]

  On 12/29/2021 at 6:08 PM, poolz1 said:

Just going off today's RMM plots...

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Ok you know how unreliable those are right?. I really really hope your right though.

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/29/2021 at 7:30 PM, Ji said:

lol i meant in terms of how that D10 storm behaved...but yea...having a vortex back into alaska...after all that would probably be game over . I do expect NAO blocking to come back again this winter though. i dont think its a one and done!

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Well the 12z eps went along with the op.

But hey it’s a +pna…I hope people don’t complain when it’s still 50* due to the fact the high latitude pattern went to crap!  

Look at that, nice Aleutian low, +pna, great pac, and we’re torching.  Because a +++AO will offset the pac the same way a - - -pna will offset a -AO. 
 

[psuhoffman]

One last thing to consider…there are a lot of combos the pac pattern can take but most aren’t good. It’s not a 50/50 thing. It’s more like 70/30 in terms of what works for us. That’s just a fact of our latitude and it’s only getting worse as it warms. 
 

Specifically we need there to be some amplitude to the jet in the pac to prevent zonal pac puke from infiltrating the conus. So we need a pac ridge somewhere…but it has to be positioned just right. Too far west and the trough is out west. Too far East and the vortex can get into Ak and destroy our cold air source. An Aleutian low is good but slightly too far west and it causes a -pna and too far east  and it floods pac puke across the US.  The type of perfect pac pattern like 2014-2015 that can give us snow absent much help on the Atlantic side is really rare. It’s a perfect alignment of various features. Absent that we can overcome a mediocre alignment in the pac with some help on other places. But if the pac is “ok” and everything else is bad that’s not a winning hand either imo. 

[BristowWx]

  On 12/29/2021 at 8:29 PM, psuhoffman said:

Well the 12z eps went along with the op.

But hey it’s a +pna…I hope people don’t complain when it’s still 50* due to the fact the high latitude pattern went to crap!  

Look at that, nice Aleutian low, +pna, great pac, and we’re torching.  Because a +++AO will offset the pac the same way a - - -pna will offset a -AO. 
 

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I don’t think anyone is expecting much at this point. I am already seeing buds on trees so what else could go wrong

[cbmclean]

  On 12/29/2021 at 8:29 PM, psuhoffman said:

Well the 12z eps went along with the op.

But hey it’s a +pna…I hope people don’t complain when it’s still 50* due to the fact the high latitude pattern went to crap!  

Look at that, nice Aleutian low, +pna, great pac, and we’re torching.  Because a +++AO will offset the pac the same way a - - -pna will offset a -AO. 
 

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Do I sense it's getting close to a "towel time" post?

[BristowWx]

  On 12/29/2021 at 8:40 PM, cbmclean said:

Do I sense it's getting close to a "towel time" post?

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No one would call it a winter in late Dec.  that would be insane even for us 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I hate the ECMWF ensembles. 

[cbmclean]

  On 12/29/2021 at 8:46 PM, BristowWx said:

No one would call it a winter in late Dec.  that would be insane even for us 

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I believe it was Dec 30th of 2019 when PSU made his famous post.  It was a doozy, and it turned out to be 100% accurate.  I have bad dreams about that post.

[BristowWx]

  On 12/29/2021 at 8:54 PM, cbmclean said:

I believe it was Dec 30th of 2019 when PSU made his famous post.  It was a doozy, and it turned out to be 100% accurate.  I have bad dreams about that post.

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Maybe it is over.  Who knows.  Not me or really anyone else.  There are a lot of prognosticators on twitter that will have to redact some predictions made couple weeks ago that’s for sure.

[cbmclean]

  On 12/29/2021 at 8:58 PM, BristowWx said:

Maybe it is over.  Who knows.  Not me or really anyone else.  There are a lot of prognosticators on twitter that will have to redact some predictions made couple weeks ago that’s for sure.

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I have started following 3 of the twitterati lately who seem knowledgeable and not too hypish: Griteater, Webberweather, and Dr. Simon Lee. Grit and Webber still see some reason for hope.  Dr  Lee seems neutral right now.

[RedSky]

  On 12/29/2021 at 8:05 PM, psuhoffman said:

Yea but that was a Nino so more stj and a tpv got displaced into Quebec which acted as de facto blocking on the flow. I wouldn’t expect the same results from that same longwave pattern absent those 2 nuances 

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So it be like a new Corvette but without the engine or transmission alrighty then

[nj2va]

Those looking for dark blue pixels will like the 18z GFS.

[BristowWx]

  On 12/29/2021 at 10:06 PM, nj2va said:

Those looking for dark blue pixels will like the 18z GFS.

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It’s a tick better than 12z

[Solution Man]

  On 12/29/2021 at 10:08 PM, BristowWx said:

It’s a tick better than 12z

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Liking the trend….let’s see if this can improve 

[Wonderdog]

  On 12/29/2021 at 10:08 PM, BristowWx said:

It’s a tick better than 12z

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A tick? Looks like 3-5 to me, until the next model run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I hate the GFS. Literally.

[Amped]

  On 12/29/2021 at 10:13 PM, Solution Man said:

Liking the trend….let’s see if this can improve 

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Right now it looks like the ridge in the plains has all the momentum and isn't going to give the ULL enough time in the pocket.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just go look at its last 6 runs for 0z Monday. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

But the ICON pretty much made the same move.

Ok, I’m back in.

[IronTy]

  On 12/29/2021 at 10:31 PM, Wonderdog said:

A tick? Looks like 3-5 to me, until the next model run.

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The fabled changeover from rain to snow...take it to the bank, it's happening...like always.  

[cbmclean]

  On 12/29/2021 at 10:34 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

But the ICON pretty much made the same move.

Ok, I’m back in.

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Hope springs eternal.