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January Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

It looks like we are finally entering an extremely favorable pattern starting around the 14-16th. The Pacific jet retraction will take place during that time, and the +PNA/-EPO will be able to strengt

WxUSAF
WxUSAF

Ok, wanted to make a post showing the impact of the ocean storm on ~Friday to the environment afterward and hence the possibility of a Sunday/MLK day storm.  Helpfully, the 3 big globals provided a ve

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

I know this is long but I’m pretty busy this weekend so this is my one deep analysis contribution for the weekend   But first man that was some epic entertainment in here earlier.  Vice hiatus

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, stormy said:

The seasoned meteorologists say that when predicting rain or snow. When in Drought, leave it out.

This dry pattern for rain or snow will break at some point.

Until then, speculation about rain or snow is a moot point. .50" of rain is not a break in the pattern unless it is followed by much more.

Is anyone smart enough to say when it will break? 

only a met can answer that, but the trough has been out west (it's been stormier and colder there lately) and we've been lacking a storm track that can tap into the gulf or atlantic.  it's just been mostly remnant systems taking too far north of a track for this area.  seems like this is a pretty textbook la nina so far with the jet stream a little further north than we want.  i can see why people would prefer a +pna in this setup and why we'd also want an atlantic that isn't going to make things dicey along the fall line (rain to snow zones).  i've just started reading more into this, but i think we want the mjo to cycle through 7/8 to allow for a more active southern stream.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 87storms said:

only a met can answer that, but the trough has been out west (it's been stormier and colder there lately) and we've been lacking a storm track that can tap into the gulf or atlantic.  it's just been mostly remnant systems taking too far north of a track for this area.  seems like this is a pretty textbook la nina so far with the jet stream a little further north than we want.  i can see why people would prefer a +pna in this setup and why we'd also want an atlantic that isn't going to make things dicey along the fall line (rain to snow zones).  i've just started reading more into this, but i think we want the mjo to cycle through 7/8 to allow for a more active southern stream.

The troughing and anomalous ridging in AK is the biggest culprit right now, which plays favorably into a sturdy Nina ENSO state. To make matters more pronounced, the ridging position and strength has actually been significantly daunting as standard dev of heights over the western half of AK are ~+5-6 sigma with a accompanying temp deviation of +4 sigma within the typical confines of the boundary layer. This allows for a significant downstream trough along the PAC coast with the opposite in terms of height field anomalies. Anytime you see snow and cold in Seattle, it's not a good sign downstream in our area. This provides a solid signature for a budding/resilient SER that will fight tooth and nail any cold prevalence for the Mid Atlantic. Now, if the ridge can relax and PNA can revert to slight neg signature, or neutral preferably, this would allow for cold temps to have an ability to move eastward creating a nice baroclinic zone from the plains to the Mid Atlantic. Waves of cold can carve out the baroclinic ribbon overtime, so that's why the winter isn't completely out of the question, imo. If the base state of the PAC remains undisturbed and we only see minor undulations of the PNA and ridge reflection over AK, then yes, the area is in huge trouble. Even still, a modestly carved baroclinic zone can still yield chances in the prime cold season. Southern stream is likely to be somewhat muted outside a few cases this winter because this is very typical of what happens in successive Nina ENSO's. 

Don't give up hope, but also don't anticipate some huge rebound this winter unless there's a wild change in the base state of the PAC.  

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The troughing and anomalous ridging in AK is the biggest culprit right now, which plays favorably into a sturdy Nina ENSO state. To make matters more pronounced, the ridging position and strength has actually been significantly daunting as standard dev of heights over the western half of AK are ~+5-6 sigma with a accompanying temp deviation of +4 sigma within the typical confines of the boundary layer. This allows for a significant downstream trough along the PAC coast with the opposite in terms of height field anomalies. Anytime you see snow and cold in Seattle, it's not a good sign downstream in our area. This provides a solid signature for a budding/resilient SER that will fight tooth and nail any cold prevalence for the Mid Atlantic. Now, if the ridge can relax and PNA can revert to slight neg signature, or neutral preferably, this would allow for cold temps to have an ability to move eastward creating a nice baroclinic zone from the plains to the Mid Atlantic. Waves of cold can carve out the baroclinic ribbon overtime, so that's why the winter isn't completely out of the question, imo. If the base state of the PAC remains undisturbed and we only see minor undulations of the PNA and ridge reflection over AK, then yes, the area is in huge trouble. Even still, a modestly carved baroclinic zone can still yield chances in the prime cold season. Southern stream is likely to be somewhat muted outside a few cases this winter because this is very typical of what happens in successive Nina ENSO's. 

Don't give up hope, but also don't anticipate some huge rebound this winter unless there's a wild change in the base state of the PAC.  

Makes sense. Looks like banking on La Niña to dominate the prime winter is a pretty decent bet, but a few tweaks to the pattern could allow for better chances. At this point, as a weather enthusiast it would be nice to have a storm of any substance to track.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Ji said:

Gfs cape storm looks worse than ever

Not looking great, but like I said yesterday, a 'good' outcome with this realistically is rain ending as snow with a coating or maybe a bit more, if there is a bit of a trailing wave. GEFS still suggests a period of snow is possible as the cold comes in, while the EPS has the trailing wave further southeast- best chance for the cold to catch the precip for a little snow as depicted is probably eastern VA. Still time for this to degrade into the usual case of cold chasing rain though lol.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Well put (lol). This threat keeps hanging around though. That makes it intriguing. 

 

on 6z as shown we need a 100mile west adjustment and bit more neutral tilt before we run out of time.  ICON leaned toward a better look than 0z showed.  nothing else to track so why not watch it.

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mattie g said:

I just want that high-amplitude push into 8 that the forecast was showing like 10 days ago. :(

Lol...I am to the point where I just want something other than a nina.  This hobby gets tiresome in years like this.  We'll earn every damn flake we see this year no doubt.

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