stormy Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: The GEFS and EPS have a gorgeous pattern evolution towards the end of their runs... this is thanks to the extension of the Pacific jet in the medium-long range: This jet extension is thanks in part to the +EAMT that is forecasted to develop in the short range: So, overall, it looks like there is some forcing that may be able to shake up this pattern. The jet extension will allow for the anomalous Aleutian ridge to build poleward and kick the mean trough out of the Pac NW and into the N Plains. This, in turn will allow for cold air to bleed into the E US. It's nice to see the changes to the Pacific jet, as those kinds of shifts on modeling are usually representative of a large shift in the pattern and not a temporary blip. It's great to see the blocking signal still holding strong as well, as the 50/50 ULL and -NAO remain prominent features throughout the runs. As long as the mean position of the trough changes to anywhere east of where it is now, that would be a massive improvement. The patterns on the end of the runs would be quite cold and stormy with the Pacific becoming much more favorable with the cold dumping into the midsection of the country. Now, of course, this could be a head fake, but I really don't believe so. The MJO is taking its time propagating through the Pacific, and Phase 7 forcing is more favorable in January anyway, so I don't see it as an issue. The +EAMT is also forecast to begin very soon, and the changes to the jet over the Pacific aren't very far out either. The forcing mechanisms that might help shake things up are in a tangible range. Overall, I would like to see these changes continue into the weekend. The Jan 2 period is intriguing, as there could be some TPV influence in Canada and some SS wave trying to cut underneath. That's really all you can say at this range. However, it's nice that we're getting some chances. During the next 15 days, the Pacific should relax enough to pull out support for the SER. Mid and late January is promising. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 CPC is skeptical that any pattern change will be more than transient. After seasonal temperatures in week 2 (January 1-8), their 3-4 week outlook for January 8-21 (see link and below) suggests that the southeast ridge will be a bit muted in week 3 before strengthening once again in week 4. No reason for too much concern as they only give us a 55% chance of above normal (1990-2020) temperatures, which may be closer to a coin flip with respect to a mean centered on this year. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ "A manual blend of dynamical and statistical model guidance favors a continuation of the negative PNA and negative NAO patterns, showing up as a pair of ridges south of the Aleutians and over Greenland, and troughs over the West and the North Atlantic. A persistent ridge also remains over the Southeast, which is consistent with La Nina conditions. While the statistical guidance depicts more troughing and cold air intrusion into the eastern US, these tools are based on a more progressive and canonical MJO evolution than what is currently observed." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 WB 18Z GFS Fantasy Storm late first week in January… BELIEVE!!!! Merry Christmas!!! 4 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS Fantasy Storm late first week in January… BELIEVE!!!! Merry Christmas!!! And it’s followed by good cold. One can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: CPC is skeptical that any pattern change will be more than transient. After seasonal temperatures in week 2 (January 1-8), their 3-4 week outlook for January 8-21 (see link and below) suggests that the southeast ridge will be a bit muted in week 3 before strengthening once again in week 4. No reason for too much concern as they only give us a 55% chance of above normal (1990-2020) temperatures, which may be closer to a coin flip with respect to a mean centered on this year. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ "A manual blend of dynamical and statistical model guidance favors a continuation of the negative PNA and negative NAO patterns, showing up as a pair of ridges south of the Aleutians and over Greenland, and troughs over the West and the North Atlantic. A persistent ridge also remains over the Southeast, which is consistent with La Nina conditions. While the statistical guidance depicts more troughing and cold air intrusion into the eastern US, these tools are based on a more progressive and canonical MJO evolution than what is currently observed." When did they do that outlook ? Before todays guidance and subsequent huge changes ? Could be, they're cautious even if written afterward until the writing begins to show on the wall. So many headfakes it's hard to blame them really, and I'm not a fan of CPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 18Z to the rescue with a Christmas miracle! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 18Z to the rescue with a Christmas miracle! Dont forget this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Dont forget this Also don't forget "TorchMas" and call your local fire department. it's gonna be a doozy.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 00z GEFS shows some potential beginning around the January 2nd. The mean has a low traversing the south and off the coast of the Carolinas with maybe some cold enough air around by that point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 00z GEFS shows some potential beginning around the January 2nd. The mean has a low traversing the south and off the coast of the Carolinas with maybe some cold enough air around by that point.It's going to be a COLD Rain .take that to the bankSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Is that something on Day 10 on the Euro? Or nah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 4 hours ago, Ji said: Dont forget this Wait a minute…that never happened…pretty sneaky sis….Connect 4 the vertical checkers game from Milton Bradley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 gfs snowstorm jan 1 with cad 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: gfs snowstorm jan 1 with cad That is solid CAD as depicted. I didn’t expect that until I looked at 2m temps. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: That is solid CAD as depicted. I didn’t expect that until I looked at 2m temps. Nice 3 of the 31 GEFS members give us measurable snow during that period with one of the members giving us 2 1/2". Let's watch this improve with time (I hope) 25% of the EPS members show a near-zero or slightly positive PNA by late on the 8th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 minute ago, dallen7908 said: 3 of the 31 GEFS members give us measurable snow during that period with one of the members giving us 2 1/2". Let's watch this improve with time (I hope) 25% of the EPS members show a near-zero or slightly positive PNA by late on the 8th! I was about to say, while I don’t have individual members, the TT 6z GEFS maps don’t seem supportive of the OP. Most certainly a LP emerging from the SE but the mean HP is over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Ian on Twitter likes the Jan 5th to 20th time frame for something decent. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 37 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: 3 of the 31 GEFS members give us measurable snow during that period with one of the members giving us 2 1/2". Let's watch this improve with time (I hope) 25% of the EPS members show a near-zero or slightly positive PNA by late on the 8th! Good patterns seem to take way longer than we think to develop and way end quicker than we hope. But hey it’s Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 25, 2021 Author Share Posted December 25, 2021 1 hour ago, nj2va said: I was about to say, while I don’t have individual members, the TT 6z GEFS maps don’t seem supportive of the OP. Most certainly a LP emerging from the SE but the mean HP is over the plains. It’s gone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s gone now I’m shocked. That’s a pretty massive storm as depicted on the 12z GFS - maybe it’ll shake things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Ian on Twitter likes the Jan 5th to 20th time frame for something decent. I like that time frame ever year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I like that time frame ever year Outside of being stuck in a really crappy pattern like we have now, you gotta like the odds of seeing some snow during that period, climatologically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Well, we'll get snow if there is a +360dm -EPO and -NAO too (384hr GFS ensembles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: Outside of being stuck in a really crappy pattern like we have now, you gotta like the odds of seeing some snow during that period, climatologically speaking. Good to see a few bowling balls in the 500 anoms, even if a bit north of what we'd like to see. I don't see any petunia killers though. If anything this warm weather today has given them more strength and boldness. In a few weeks from now the sun angle will be so high they'll probably bolt and go to seed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: Outside of being stuck in a really crappy pattern like we have now, you gotta like the odds of seeing some snow during that period, climatologically speaking. Gefs shows normal to below normal 850s and 2m temps with some waves running the boundary starting around the 3rd or 4th. Just talking in general at this range but there definitely seems to be a window of opportunity the first half of January. Hopefully we get several chances as it usually takes many tries for us to score 1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 CMC with the "vodka cold" possibly heading our way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 WB EPS probs for one inch and 3 inches. Couple of the ensembles give us snow on snow in the 10- 15 day period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 You also have to like the West coast ridge building late in the WB EPS period. First time I have seen that in a long time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 Main thing DC always has to stay away from is never ending 1-2 week push backs. Once that starts it rarely stopped. Couple weeks ago looked like 12/27ish might start a change so let’s hope first several days of Jan do because once we start the 1/8, no 1/18 then we are most usually SOL. Feb 2007 an exception but far from the rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2021 Share Posted December 25, 2021 WB EPS probs for one inch and 3 inches. Couple of the ensembles give us snow on snow in the 10- 15 day period.Zzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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