poolz1 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Maybe a decent window of opportunity starting 1/1. All 3 global ens with a cold push during this timeframe along with waves running the boundary to our south. Finally, a precip signal that is lining up with some colder temps. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Gfs has the cape storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Came across this post from a met named PBSwxPABlueRdige1310 on the WB forums. He's been a pretty good poster over the years and I always appreciate his explanations. It is a couple days old by now and I hope he does not mind me posting it here: --------- The ridge is being tamped down now, though it appears temporary. I've been amazed at the lack of phasing over the past 6 weeks between branches of the jet. The low in the eastern Gulf will be booted out and bring rain/ice to SE NH and snow further north. I don't actually think what's happening aloft is all that complicated. As of now and for much of the past few weeks, the deep troughing over BC/Yukon/NW Territories, to along and off the West Coast is - I believe - due to the anomalous cold water in the NE Pacific (in the order of 6-10F below 30-year climo). This is a powerful driver in North America and it's very, very hard not to have a robust counter to that troughing out east. Ridging over the south-central and SE is the classic response. What we don't yet know is what will happen in a week or two. I still maintain that if the ridging can move a bit east to over mainland Alaska into NW Canada (and not over the Aleutians) then the persistent Arctic air over NW Canada will want to drain into the northern/central U.S. Meanwhile, the Greenland/Baffin Bay ridging is established now. That's a big change from a week ago when low heights were over that geographic area. However, all global ensembles show that ridging building heights further south into Hudson/James Bay in a week to two weeks. IF...IF that happens, then I believe it will be very difficult to sustain the pattern as we currently see it. The cold air will be forced to drain further south and press east. How exactly that transpires will depend on how much energy aloft is ejected out of the Western U.S. trough, and what happens upstream in AK...eastern Pacific. Without a +PNA ridge, indeed, the outcome for the U.S. East/Midwest is much less predictable. Also of note, I've watched very warm, dry air build and move off the Mexican plateau and off the NM/CO mountains in this stream flow. That warm air has to be reckoned with until the heights build further south in NE Canada and that warm air can be suppressed by the weight of the pressing cold. It looks to be like a mild to chilly outcome with high variability day-to day for the Mid-Atlantic to Lower Great Lakes over the next 7 to possibly 10 days, before a colder regime can take over. I would expect more wild swings and shifts in global modeling, especially in operation runs for the forseeable future, especially given building ridging in Greenland and over western AK. The models notoriously don't like high-latitude ridging, for it is anomalous. Each of these perturbations in the stream flow will be hard to predict and the outcomes quite volatile with precipitation type, placement, and intensity, until further notice. The highest confidence right now is for a cold NW and northern Rockies into MN/ND with frequent snow in the west-facing mountain west, especially, CA/NV/WA/ID/MT/UT...western CO/western WY. I would expect a much colder regime to penetrate the Mid-Atlantic/Midwest/southern Great Lakes very late this year or early in 2022. It's still my expectation that another cold surge, probably more intense, will visit late winter. The idea - or notion - that the current regime holds for two or three months and it's mild all winter in these areas is not based in any sound meteorological data that I'm looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Any thoughts on Monday maybe starting as a period of snow. Doesn’t look likely but maybe possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs has the cape storm! A half dozen or so GEFS members have frozen for our area Jan 3-4 timeframe. It's a decent setup as advertised for a light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Any thoughts on Monday maybe starting as a period of snow. Doesn’t look likely but maybe possible? Wondering when someone was going to mention that storm, should we use this thread or the December/November one? Does seem like a distant possibility to see some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Any thoughts on Monday maybe starting as a period of snow. Doesn’t look likely but maybe possible? I’d say let’s do it, what have we had to track. GFS been pretty consistent with this event over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Any thoughts on Monday maybe starting as a period of snow. Doesn’t look likely but maybe possible? Seems like we want to keep the heights down so the system doesn’t wind up tracking over Buffalo. 500 heights at 6z shifted north vs 0z which translated to less frozen in the area. Even if its a long shot, at least something to keep an eye on vs pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Any thoughts on Monday maybe starting as a period of snow. Doesn’t look likely but maybe possible? GFS has a pretty dry airmass overhead... dews in the upper 10's - low 20's on Monday morning. Euro kicks everything just a bit N. Wish I could say I trust the GFS but it seems like the euro has been winning this midrange battle with systems here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Seems like we want to keep the heights down so the system doesn’t wind up tracking over Buffalo. 500 heights at 6z shifted north vs 0z which translated to less frozen in the area. Even if its a long shot, at least something to keep an eye on vs pattern changes. Yes I think it’s a long shot. Very long, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: GFS has a pretty dry airmass overhead... dews in the upper 10's - low 20's on Monday morning. Euro kicks everything just a bit N. Wish I could say I trust the GFS but it seems like the euro has been winning this midrange battle with systems here lately. Lol, as Ji says … the model with no snow is the correct one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, as Ji says … the model with no snow is the correct one. Or, “we all know how this will end” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS has a pretty dry airmass overhead... dews in the upper 10's - low 20's on Monday morning. Euro kicks everything just a bit N. Wish I could say I trust the GFS but it seems like the euro has been winning this midrange battle with systems here lately. The main piece of energy tracks way NW, and it becomes a weak strung out mess as it moves east. Best chance of seeing anything 'significant'- frozen or otherwise- would probably be in the western part of our region, and mostly further north. Might not see anything from the metros point east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The main piece of energy tracks way NW, and it becomes a weak strung out mess as it moves east. Best chance of seeing anything 'significant'- frozen or otherwise- would probably be in the western part of our region, and mostly further north. Might not see anything from the metros point east. Agreed, if everything goes right it is a mulch whitener with a crust on top for areas west of the BR. I will take it at this point though.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Or, “we all know how this will end” Or Memorial Day was colder than Christmas Day in 2021. Probably doesn’t happen too often 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Really happy to see the pattern isn't getting stuck in D15 or beyond. Folks shouldn't focus on a single piece of energy or one potential event waffling north or south, etc. We're in a far better position than this time in 2018, where it was pretty clear the rest of the winter was going to be a dud. EDIT: Got the years mixed up, corrected for winter of 2019 - 2020. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: Gfs has the cape storm! Cape storms never disappoint. Never. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Super cold is on the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Really happy to see the pattern isn't getting stuck in D15 or beyond. Folks shouldn't focus on a single piece of energy or one potential event waffling north or south, etc. We're in a far better position than this time last year, where it was pretty clear the rest of the winter was going to be a dud. You don't see the off the charts -PNA continuing or rebuilding and pumping the SER? I mean how do we know its not going to get stuck D15. Next week looked cold last week. I'm just picking your brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: Super cold is on the way. Why do you think it will automatically migrate east based on a 384 Op run? it is encouraging to see it super cold for sure getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Why do you think it will automatically migrate east based on a 384 Op run? it is encouraging to see it super cold for sure getting closer. We all need to make educated decisions on which posters to interact with. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Super cold is on the way. Great news, if you live in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 22 minutes ago, mattie g said: We all need to make educated decisions on which posters to interact with. All we need is to get that poster subtropics back in here to tell us how tropical our climate has become...that was always fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Really happy to see the pattern isn't getting stuck in D15 or beyond. Folks shouldn't focus on a single piece of energy or one potential event waffling north or south, etc. We're in a far better position than this time last year, where it was pretty clear the rest of the winter was going to be a dud. The winter from this point on last year was a dud? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 49 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Why do you think it will automatically migrate east based on a 384 Op run? it is encouraging to see it super cold for sure getting closer. Based on the depth of that -PNA and trof out west, i would expect a more stout SER tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 53 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Super cold is on the way. If you can find them, look at the maps from winter 1997. The northern Rockies and upper Midwest were brutally cold and it never came east or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2021 Author Share Posted December 23, 2021 56 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Super cold is on the way. The place I want to see super cold air is all of Ontario, Quebec and New England. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The winter from this point on last year was a dud? For him yes it was lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The winter from this point on last year was a dud? I think late last January through much of February was solid winter for us. Insane gradient obviously in snow outcome, but it was a hair breadth (or about 3-5F) away from being a very memorable stretch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The winter from this point on last year was a dud? Idk, but I kind of liked it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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