Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 8:13 PM, BristowWx said: Agreed. Things look better in the LR. Gotta keep it going. Expand But the same period upcoming that is growing warmer on ops was also progged as a dramatically cooler regime 14 days prior on the ens. So who's to say we aren't getting head faked again for the 1st week of January? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 9:20 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s how we roll. The March thread is usually up and running before MLK day. Expand Sucks. I knew this would be an RNA winter in the mean, but it's about identifying the periods of volatility...I identified December with respect to the PNA, and I was wrong...right about the blocking, but the record RNA had screwed us out of this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 The MJO looks to be finally going into Phase 8. 1 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 7:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is OT....but I am pumped over this, so just a sneak preview into my thought process heading into next year. Here are the el nino seasons following multi year cool ENSO years: 1957-1958 1963-1964 1968-1969 1972-1973 (super el nino, so huge asterisk) 1976-1977 1986-1987 2002-2003 2009-2010 2014-2015 2018-2019 Expand @StormchaserChuck! @raindancewx What are your thoughts on this...thinking way ahead during the meteorological down time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Odds are weak el nino next year, congrats New England, moderate, congrats east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 ^Above my pay grade, but 86-87, 09-10, or 14-15 would work for me. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 10:02 PM, CAPE said: ^Above my pay grade, but 86-87, 09-10, or 14-15 would work for me. Expand 02-03, too, no? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 9:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Odds are weak el nino next year, congrats New England, moderate, congrats east coast. Expand Don't know about the first part...I think everybody may need a moderate. Already saw weak kinda fail 2018-19 because of the pac (losing hope quickly for improvement there!)...I'd like to see what happens with a stronger one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 10:06 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Don't know about the first part...I think everybody may need a moderate. Already saw weak kinda fail 2018-19 because of the pac (losing hope quickly for improvement there!)...I'd like to see what happens with a stronger one. Expand I think the SSW kind of messed things up that year, but I know what you mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 10:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 02-03, too, no? Expand Oh shit, yeah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 9:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Odds are weak el nino next year, congrats New England, moderate, congrats east coast. Expand 2022-23 gonna be rockin! Hopefully I'll be home for it by then 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 10:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the SSW kind of messed things up that year, but I know what you mean. Expand Oh yeah? What happened with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 10:27 PM, MillvilleWx said: 2022-23 gonna be rockin! Hopefully I'll be home for it by then Expand Heck yeah Hey last month somebody dared me to start the thread...now I'm even more tempted, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 9:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: @StormchaserChuck! @raindancewx What are your thoughts on this...thinking way ahead during the meteorological down time. Expand I actually think we are experiencing everything now. Dec -PNA vs warm ENSOsubsurface is probably a less than 0.0c Nino3.4 signal through next Winter, (although it may wave+ in April-May). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 WB 18Z GEFS…. First full week of January hopefully will be tracking something other than 60 degree temps… 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 9:59 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Odds are weak el nino next year, congrats New England, moderate, congrats east coast. Expand On 12/22/2021 at 10:02 PM, CAPE said: ^Above my pay grade, but 86-87, 09-10, or 14-15 would work for me. Expand On 12/22/2021 at 10:06 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Don't know about the first part...I think everybody may need a moderate. Already saw weak kinda fail 2018-19 because of the pac (losing hope quickly for improvement there!)...I'd like to see what happens with a stronger one. Expand On 12/22/2021 at 10:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the SSW kind of messed things up that year, but I know what you mean. Expand Good discussion/speculation. If we really are in a phase of increased HL blocking as I suspect (we were long due) and we get a Nino while still near the solar minimum there is obviously potential for a blockbuster winter. We are overdue for one of those also. But there are variables as you all pointed out. I suspect maestro is correct that it would require more than a weak Nino to shake up the incredibly dominant pac base state since 2016. The weak Nino of 2019 didn’t even dent it. How much did the SSW influence that? Dunno but the Nino wasn’t having much affect on the pac even before the SSW. Of course we don’t want a super Nino either as that just floods tropical warmth across the continent. But there are no signs of that and a fairly strong Nino like 1958 can still have a kick ass second half. Even a mediocre Nino for the mid Atlantic like 2004-5 would be a godsend at this point! What type of Nino also matters. An east based Nino is a crap shoot. Some are good some are really bad (see 1992 & 1995!). Basin wide is better so long as it’s not a super Nino and modoki west based is the only super high almost can’t miss indicator of a cold/snowy winter in the mid Atlantic. Hopefully people remember though that many ninos, even ones that end up good like 1958, 1966, and 1987 or decent like 2004-5 or 2015-16 are pretty mild until mid January. I’m ok with the fact our December snow climo sucks but that seems to bother some a lot. But a Nino isn’t necessarily a cure for that. Moving to Vermont or Colorado would be a better plan! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 A little pre holiday (fantasy) cheer. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/22/2021 at 10:30 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Oh yeah? What happened with that? Expand I'll have to look back through my blogs, but I think I saw research that a SSW can excite and subsequently stagnate the MJO, and as fate had it, it end up constructively interfering with that la nina base state we have been stuck in that Hoffman alluded to. That winter was also during the blocking drought....an NAO would have changed the landscape of that somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 1:41 AM, CAPE said: A little pre holiday (fantasy) cheer. Expand That’s actually what a typical Nina h5 when the pac ridge is poleward and blocking looks like. But the relentless TNH has been pumping the SE ridge and altering the typical Nina pattern 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 1:40 AM, psuhoffman said: Hopefully people remember though that many ninos, even ones that end up good like 1958, 1966, and 1987 or decent like 2004-5 or 2015-16 are pretty mild until mid January. I’m ok with the fact our December snow climo sucks but that seems to bother some a lot. Expand And even the legendary 2009-10 winter had mild, mid-50s Christmas with rain that washed the snow away...lol Now what about temperatures in December during ninas? I had thought the front end of ninas tended colder...but I'm guessing not so much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 1:40 AM, psuhoffman said: But there are variables as you all pointed out. I suspect maestro is correct that it would require more than a weak Nino to shake up the incredibly dominant pac base state since 2016. Expand Now I'm still curious about 2016. Now is it just coincidence that things have been screwy (especially with the pac) since that super niño...or did it like break something? Lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Much better look than prior runs showing up around day 9 on the 00z GFS. Looks like a piece of energy cuts off around the southern coast of CA so the western trough is far less pronounced. More doable zonal flow sets up in early January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Big changes on gfs...trough kicked more east and epo looks better 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:51 AM, Ji said: Big changes on gfs...trough kicked more east and epo looks better Expand Sleep soundly you have six hours until a different solution 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 4:51 AM, Ji said: Big changes on gfs...trough kicked more east and epo looks better Expand The Okhotsk vortex that has been enhancing/sustaining the strength of NPAC ridge weakens dramatically towards the end of the GEFS run, and heights build a bit more over AK and poleward(-EPO). If that is real it would allow the western US trough to broaden and shift eastward some. Canadian ens looks even better than the GEFS at the end of its run. EPS wants to mostly keep the trough out west, although it is expanding eastward at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Go Canada. Looks like a TPV lobe migrating southward as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 10:52 AM, CAPE said: The Okhotsk vortex that has been enhancing/sustaining the strength of NPAC ridge weakens dramatically towards the end of the GEFS run, and heights build a bit more over AK and poleward(-EPO). If that is real it would allow the western US trough to broaden and shift eastward some. Canadian ens looks even better than the GEFS at the end of its run. EPS wants to mostly keep the trough out west, although it is expanding eastward at the end. Expand Is this area circled in green where we need some help? As the run evolves, higher heights replace the vortex and (I think) it helps weaken the strength of the western trough / pushes it east enough to dampen the SER. It looks like this vortex is helping to reinforce the current Pacific look (?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/23/2021 at 11:43 AM, nj2va said: Is this area circled in green where we need some help? As the run evolves, higher heights replace the vortex and (I think) it helps weaken the strength of the western trough / pushes it east enough to dampen the SER. It looks like this vortex is helping to reinforce the current Pacific look (?). Expand Yes. If that trough dissipates, the Pac ridge should weaken some, and heights can build more into the EPO domain. We will see how sustainable this is if it plays out this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 Re: the vortex near Japan….6z GEFS starts to change that look ~New Years Day. Hopefully not a head fake and we start to see a breakdown to this relentless pacific shit show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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