January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSG]

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How do the high latitudes affect whether the ENSO is nina or Nino? Or is it more about how high latitude warming affects the atmospheric response?

I remember folks saying the 2018-19 weak Niño never "coupled" to the atmosphere. Is that an example of what you're referring to?

Mostly the latter. Temperature differentials across latitudes is at the core of weather across the globe. With the warming not being uniform I think it's fair to expect the relationships to change from what they have been in the past. I'm not an expert on ENSO state or it's specific atmospheric effects though so how/what the downstream effects might be is beyond my knowledge

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I feel like the look in early January (from yesterday/two days ago) would work for us…high heights in the AO/NAO and the pacific ridge shifted east just enough to mute the SE ridge. If we can just get a bit of help from the Pacific with the current look in the Atlantic we’d be in the game. 
 

and overall I’d rather a favorable Pacific IMO. 

If the pacific was REALLY good and the AO wasn’t a train wreck that would work. But the NAO would work if the pac wasn’t flaming poop also. It’s all a balancing act. Fact is it the AO is raging positive or the pac is hot poo we probably aren’t snowing in either scenario. Even when we scored in 2014 @ 2015 absent a great Atlantic it wasn’t garbage. There was often ridging over the top onto the AO domain in 2014. 2015 we had a displaced PV suppressing on the Atlantic side.  We can’t score when either is a hot mess on wheels. We need one to be good and the other not to be a floating flaming dumpster fire. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If the pacific was REALLY good and the AO wasn’t a train wreck that would work. But the NAO would work if the pac wasn’t flaming poop also. It’s all a balancing act. Fact is it the AO is raging positive or the pac is hot poo we probably aren’t snowing in either scenario. Even when we scored in 2014 @ 2015 absent a great Atlantic it wasn’t garbage. There was often ridging over the top onto the AO domain in 2014. 2015 we had a displaced PV suppressing on the Atlantic side.  We can’t score when either is a hot mess on wheels. We need one to be good and the other not to be a floating flaming dumpster fire. 

Lotta sewage and excrement in that post…impressive

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If the pacific was REALLY good and the AO wasn’t a train wreck that would work. But the NAO would work if the pac wasn’t flaming poop also. It’s all a balancing act. Fact is it the AO is raging positive or the pac is hot poo we probably aren’t snowing in either scenario. Even when we scored in 2014 @ 2015 absent a great Atlantic it wasn’t garbage. There was often ridging over the top onto the AO domain in 2014. 2015 we had a displaced PV suppressing on the Atlantic side.  We can’t score when either is a hot mess on wheels. We need one to be good and the other not to be a floating flaming dumpster fire. 

How long has it been since the Pacific was actually good/not too bad?

[Negnao]

Negative PNA doesn’t work well for DC snowstorms. 

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How long has it been since the Pacific was actually good/not too bad?

2015. 2016 was bad for a different reason though. We got the typical Nino north pac trough but in typical super Nino style it was too strong and encroached on the west coast too much and this flooded the Continent with mild pac puke much of that winter. 
 

2017 to now the dominant pac base state has been a central pacific ridge which is bad. Our best way to offset that would be the HL but right now the pac is sooooo bad, literally the worst EVER coming up…that’s it’s just a no win no matter what else is in our favor. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Negative PNA doesn’t work well for DC snowstorms. 

No but neither does a +AO. Most of the snows are when the AO is neg or neutral. Only a few near the top of that graph also.  But look at the real issue…none if the AO is +4/5 just like none if the pna is -4/5 like now!   If the PNA was +2 but the AO was +5 we would be screaming how we need the AO right now.  Truth is we need more than one thing to have a good chance. 
 

ETA: there is also a big difference between DCA where that chart was made from and the NW burbs.  Places in our forum can do ok snow wise with a -pna -NAO so long as the NAO is more neg than the pna. Lots of 1-3” storms at DCA that were 4-8” not far NW of the beltway. DCA REALLY sucks. It has to be so perfect for it to snow a lot there. 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2015. 2016 was bad for a different reason though. We got the typical Nino north pac trough but in typical super Nino style it was too strong and encroached on the west coast too much and this flooded the Continent with mild pac puke much of that winter. 
 

2017 to now the dominant pac base state has been a central pacific ridge which is bad. Our best way to offset that would be the HL but right now the pac is sooooo bad, literally the worst EVER coming up…that’s it’s just a no win no matter what else is in our favor. 

So it's been bad for 5 consecutive years...hm...would like to see if that's happened before...

[Negnao]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No but neither does a +AO. Most of the snows are when the AO is neg or neutral. Only a few near the top of that graph also.  But look at the real issue…none if the AO is +4/5 just like none if the pna is -4/5 like now!   If the PNA was +2 but the AO was +5 we would be screaming how we need the AO right now.  Truth is we need more than one thing to have a good chance. 
 

ETA: there is also a big difference between DCA where that chart was made from and the NW burbs.  Places in our forum can do ok snow wise with a -pna -NAO so long as the NAO is more neg than the pna. Lots of 1-3” storms at DCA that were 4-8” not far NW of the beltway. DCA REALLY sucks. It has to be so perfect for it to snow a lot there. 

DCA is terrible and I agree we can still score with a negative PNA and negative nao, but the PNA at -5 makes us all dead in the water. Hopefully we can at least get close to neutral in early January. 

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE @Ji this is why I think there is more to this than Nina. The closest example of what we’re dealing with now was actually 2019 which was a Nino!  

Truth is this has been a consistent pac issue for 5 years through 2 neutral, 1 Nino and 2 Nina’s. This year it’s just even more out of control!  

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE @Ji this is why I think there is more to this than Nina. The closest example of what we’re dealing with now was actually 2019 which was a Nino!  

Truth is this has been a consistent pac issue for 5 years through 2 neutral, 1 Nino and 2 Nina’s. This year it’s just even more out of control!  

I notice your exclamation points=worry on your end...lol And you're trying your best not to saw the w (warming) word...

Pac issue is a legit concern for future snow...5 years? Tell me why we shouldn't be concerned when we've seen no improvement, or why it's illogical to say that this could be a bigger problem. I'm telling ya...I think a mod-strong El Niño might be that last experiment to see if that's the one ENSO that can overcome this persistent problem. If that doesn't work...ruh-roh.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I notice your exclamation points=worry on your end...lol And you're trying your best not to saw the w (warming) word...

Pac issue is a legit concern for future snow...5 years? Tell me why we shouldn't be concerned when we've seen no improvement, or why it's illogical to say that this could be a bigger problem.

When have I said it’s not a big concern?  I’ll make these statements.
 

1) If this pac base remains it will be really hard to get consistent snow in this area. The last 5 years are very typical of what we should expect in this pac regime. It can snow but it will be slim pickings and storms will be few and far between. 

2) I can’t say for sure how much is cyclical and how much is “you know what”. There are some logical possibilities on how warming has made this worse. I’ve mentioned the changes in the typical SST profile in the IO and western PAC favoring convection in hostile locations for cold here AND the expansion of the pac Hadley cell as possible warming related contributing factors.  But I can’t prove anything. 
 

3) should I say this everyday 5 times?  Scream it’s never going to snow again and cry?  Or do what I do and simply get over it and look for whatever opportunities we can manage despite the crappy base state that seems stuck. 

[Kevin Reilly]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE @Ji this is why I think there is more to this than Nina. The closest example of what we’re dealing with now was actually 2019 which was a Nino!  

Truth is this has been a consistent pac issue for 5 years through 2 neutral, 1 Nino and 2 Nina’s. This year it’s just even more out of control!  

Hmm check how warm overall the largest body of water is on Earth.  The Pacific Rules all of the Lower 48 and there’s no end in sight. The Warm Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic aren’t helping either.  This is our new normal with few exceptions over the past 10 years or so.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When have I said it’s not a big concern?  I’ll make these statements.
 

1) If this pac base remains it will be really hard to get consistent snow in this area. The last 5 years are very typical of what we should expect in this pac regime. It can snow but it will be slim pickings and storms will be few and far between. 

2) I can’t say for sure how much is cyclical and how much is “you know what”. There are some logical possibilities on how warming has made this worse. I’ve mentioned the changes in the typical SST profile in the IO and western PAC favoring convection in hostile locations for cold here AND the expansion of the pac Hadley cell as possible warming related contributing factors.  But I can’t prove anything. 
 

3) should I say this everyday 5 times?  Scream it’s never going to snow again and cry?  Or do what I do and simply get over it and look for whatever opportunities we can manage despite the crappy base state that seems stuck. 

Looking up articles about that dang Hadley Cell I'm growing to despise...I guess this "poleward expansion" isn't something that just...reverses itself?

[cbmclean]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Looking up articles about that dang Hadley Cell I'm growing to despise...I guess this "poleward expansion" isn't something that just...reverses itself?

All it would take is some minor geoengineering.  If we want more snow, maybe w can all chip in and buy a few trillion tons of sulfur dioxide to throw into the atmosphere or seed the ocean with iron.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

All it would take is some minor geoengineering.  If we want more snow, maybe w can all chip in and buy a few trillion tons of sulfur dioxide to throw into the atmosphere or seed the ocean with iron.

If that were a real thing I'd be tempted to invest, lol

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If that were a real thing I'd be tempted to invest, lol

We can start a GoFundMe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

We can start a GoFundMe

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injection

Interesting...lol

[SnowenOutThere]

4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

All it would take is some minor geoengineering.  If we want more snow, maybe w can all chip in and buy a few trillion tons of sulfur dioxide to throw into the atmosphere or seed the ocean with iron.

How a conversation at the government would go.

“But Sir why do we need geoengineering?”

”For the Mid Atlantic snow weenies”

”how have you not been fired yet”

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Negnao said:

Negative PNA doesn’t work well for DC snowstorms. 

Should also include ENSO state to get a complete picture, and maybe EPO phase. From this plot you can clearly see the importance of -AO though.

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We also had great winters in 2013-2014, and 2014-2015 with no help in the Atlantic. 2012-2013 was decent (location dependent) and 2018-2019 was good. I don’t think those were friendly Atlantic’s either.
 

We have seen this discussion crop up year after year and everyone has their opinion, but for me, I like nickel and dime winters that are frequent and consistent. Not much for the big event and let’s call it a winter type winters.

2013-14 was a cool winter but also pretty rare in that it was EPO/WPO driven and the AO/NAO was predominately positive, and we had plenty of luck with timing of the smaller events. Bigger events mostly cut. 2015 was fun once we got to mid Feb, but literally nothing for more than 2/3 of met winter for the lowlands. Those winters were also back before clippers became seemingly 'extinct' which is something you have noted of late. I would guess if we see a close repeat of the big -EPO setup again(with +AO) it would be generally frustratingly dry and cold in between rain/slop with any wave that amplified.

[CAPE]

I mentioned this yesterday, but this window looks somewhat interesting for a possible modest wave moving along the boundary to our south. 

[CAPE]

Maybe the best article ever written about the various teleconnections and their importance for snow in DC, by Wes Junker. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/

 

Lots of good info and plots/graphs, but for those who don't want to take the time to read it-

Quote

The best predictors of a snowy winter are, in this order, cold temperatures, the AO, NAO and the ONI (El Niño).

 

[frd]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Maybe the best article ever written about the various teleconnections and their importance for snow in DC, by Wes Junker. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/

 

Lots of good info and plots/graphs, but for those who don't want to take the time to read it-

 

 

 

I liked this scatter diagram the best.

 

Snow lovers may want to know: Does a cold winter support a snowy winter? Your grandmother would’ve said so and that common sense answer is the right one.

Cold temperatures correlate with a snowy winter better than any of the indices I just discussed.

Below is a scatter diagram of winter temperature anomalies and seasonal snowfall.

 

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

I liked this scatter diagram the best.

 

Snow lovers may want to know: Does a cold winter support a snowy winter? Your grandmother would’ve said so and that common sense answer is the right one.

Cold temperatures correlate with a snowy winter better than any of the indices I just discussed.

Below is a scatter diagram of winter temperature anomalies and seasonal snowfall.

 

And ofc the cold typically comes via a -AO, or in the absence of that something like 2014 with the -EPO. The -NAO (esp during a Nino with a legit stj) enhances the odds of a storm tracking underneath and just off the coast, plus keeps a N/NE wind component during a coastal storm. This is critical for significant snow in the lowlands, not so much for places further inland, esp the western highlands where there are microclimates with mechanisms like NW flow/upslope that also provide snow.

[Yeoman]

4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

How a conversation at the government would go.

“But Sir why do we need geoengineering?”

”For the Mid Atlantic snow weenies”

”how have you not been fired yet”

The government funds 820 hour model runs and clown maps, so I think they would be more than happy to waste even more resources on the weenies.

[Yeoman]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

I mentioned this yesterday, but this window looks somewhat interesting for a possible modest wave moving along the boundary to our south. 

Do you honestly think this map will resemble reality in 12 days?

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Do you honestly think this map will resemble reality in 12 days?

In this thread when there is not much to see in the shorter range, we are mostly left with discussion/conjecture centered on progression of the longwave pattern in the long range. Analysis of a LR ensemble mean plot for a given timeframe over multiple model cycles can provide indications about the evolution of the overall pattern. Big picture stuff with plenty of uncertainty obviously.

[Yeoman]

I suppose blind luck has to move in our favor at some point..

[StormchaserChuck!]

I expect this to trend more -EPO.. maybe soonthereafter -NAO coming back. We all know PNA Is going + Jan 10-15