CAPE Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Basically the MJO is stalled out which affects the pacific jet stream to not extend as much leading to a continuation of the current pattern. Though the MJO should reach where we need it to be but it might not move till early January. My question is: at what point do we say that the MJO won’t progress, as in when do we through in the towel? By New Years if the change has still been kicked down the road? Well you don't throw in the towel. Historically a wave of that magnitude is favored to moved into phase 8, and some guidance is suggesting it may not occur until around mid month. If that is the case we will probably see some transient cold periods but the mean trough will likely remain out west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, IronTy said: Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts? He had homer simpson as his avatar I think. He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was. Crankywxguy? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, IronTy said: Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts? He had homer simpson as his avatar I think. He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was. Cranky weather guy I think. He stopped posting last winter iirc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, H2O said: Crankywxguy? Yeah that's the guy. Too bad he stopped posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 I read somewhere that e qbo is a factor in slow moving mjo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: For all the talk of can kicking, this is a pretty good look right here, and there are hints on the ops and ens runs of a modest wave or 2 tracking along the boundary during the Jan 1-5 window. Just need that boundary to be far enough south. Something tells me that in that setup, we aren’t talking about tracking something from 10 days out. If we can stay on the right side of the boundary, it’s more likely we’d have legit threat show up within 5 days IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 AO, WPO, EPO and the NAO are heading back to neutral in 2022 looking at the latest teleconnection charts while the PNA remains negative. Not what we want for a major pattern change. it is also never a good sign when I think for the first time ever JB mentioned climate change as he expressed some frustration that the pattern is not responding to the analogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Something tells me that in that setup, we aren’t talking about tracking something from 10 days out. If we can stay on the right side of the boundary, it’s more likely we’d have legit threat show up within 5 days IMO. Probably but we are seeing hints even at this range, so something to continue to monitor. 10 days out it's just big picture, and highly subject to change with the volatility in the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Probably but we are seeing hints even at this range, so something to continue to monitor. 10 days out it's just big picture, and highly subject to change with the volatility in the overall pattern. Yep, for sure. And to your earlier point, with the majority of talk this AM about can kicking, I’d take a gamble with that look any day over the pattern we are dealing with now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: AO, WPO, EPO and the NAO are heading back to neutral in 2022 looking at the latest teleconnection charts while the PNA remains negative. Not what we want for a major pattern change. it is also never a good sign when I think for the first time ever JB mentioned climate change as he expressed some frustration that the pattern is not responding to the analogs. Some of the seasonal models keep the negative PNA pattern for the duration of the winter. We certainly will need some luck to score at this lower latitude. Cannot overemphasize the importance of some cooperation from the Pac. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 53 minutes ago, IronTy said: Yeah that's the guy. Too bad he stopped posting. Yeah, he was great. I think he got tired of the haters and stopped posting. Wish he would have just ignored them and kept up the daily posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Aside from this 24-hr current transient shift to a neutral PNA, when the PNA is progged to actually shift to positive and is under 100 hours out, then our window is opening. Until then as we enter Jan, we are going to be relying on historic climo, and I'm not sure we can count on this like we did 15 years ago. Eta: fixed typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 8 hours ago, Ji said: Such boring model runs. 01-02 all over again 5th week of Jan looking like we flip.. waiting for the 840 hr GFS to confirm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 But Tom Tasslemyer posted the 46 day Euro snow map and it shows 6-10” for our area so there’s that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Quote Aside from this 24-hr current transient shift to a neutral PNA, when the PNA is progged to actually shift to negative and is under 100 hours out, then our window is opening. Until then as we enter Jan, we are going to be relying on historic climo, and I'm not sure we can count on this like we did 15 years ago. Thought we wanted a shift towards +PNA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 33 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: But Tom Tasslemyer posted the 46 day Euro snow map and it shows 6-10” for our area so there’s that. lock it in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 One aspect I alluded to yesterday was the waves of warming in the strat. Not sure I would categorize it as a SSWE tho. However, the ens are getting more aggressive with the SPV bullying. PSU and I discussed implications of the SPV and concluded that these warming events are sometimes catalysts in reshuffling the deck. So maybe this disruption to the spv anchor will end up being what the doctor ordered wrt to pna tho the spv is generally more high lat related. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, flsch22 said: Thought we wanted a shift towards +PNA ? We do. Did I typo in that post? Eta: whoops yes I did. Should read positive not negative. Ty for pointing that out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, mappy said: lock it in? The big ones are sniffed out early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 38 minutes ago, IronTy said: The big ones are sniffed out early. In our case they really stink, hopefully that changes this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 it's a west coast winter to start things off (though they could use the snow). hopefully they can share at some point because i am ready for a snowstorm, but the latest gfs run is not very inspiring. pretty unusual to enter january with hardly a trace of snow, which is indicative of the dry weather we've had overall (the drought thread is the real show right now). on the bright side, trails have been in great shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2021 Author Share Posted December 21, 2021 This is a drive by so I won’t debate this but ….. snow maps are the most useless thing. Ever. Carry on 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Didn't realize the slight movement north or south in the Pacific High pressure, -PNA, makes a big difference, we are borderlining +pressure in Alaska, -EPO, and it's cold, 30s, today and yesterday, despite +600dm -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is a drive by so I won’t debate this but ….. snow maps are the most useless thing. Ever. Carry on You gotta look at the kuchera maps, much more accurate than the standard 10:1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 The last 4 Christmas' + 2 days. 5 -NAO Christmas' in a row. I said a week ago this mean we could then wane away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 4 hours ago, Ji said: 5 hours ago, CAPE said: Good thread from griteater on the pattern progression wrt AAM and MJO. The ensembles are definitely kicking the csn now. Psu cant really argue that. That se ridge a monster The last 72 hours was a definite change. But you can’t just jump on things the first run something hints, and it happens non linearly with some good runs mixed back in, but it’s undeniable the guidance is backing away from any progression of the pacific pattern and that the N pac ridge will be too dominant for the NAO to have enough impact. I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s kicking the can as much as just stalling the pac progression. Speculating on what’s gone wrong, yes some of the mjo wave makes it into 8 but it’s really weak and now there are other areas of convection in less ideal locations so maybe the mjo won’t have the influence needed to fight the Nina base state. Additionally the pac ridge pna trough combo isn’t just typical Nina. It’s near record breaking. Early in winter thats too much for the NAO to fight off. If we repeated this in Feb/March we might have a better chance. Heavy speculation but could climate change play a factor? The gulf is on fire and adding latent heat to ridging in the east. When there is less cold globally it also stands to reason the cold will be less expansive where it is concentrated. That’s a problem when we have a -NAO -epo, -pna because the cold will dump west initially then we need it to eject and spread east under the block. Analogs suggest that’s typical. It’s not happening this time. At least not yet. Lastly I’m not tossing winter. This isn’t my post in Dec 2019 when I pretty much trashed our chances the whole season. There are still enough positives to work with in the base state to hope we get some periods of opportunity. I still have not given up on January if the pac can either back off or progress some. But the NAO won’t stay negative forever and we’re wasting prime time right now. What to look for that would be a sign this season was going in the tank like 2002 or 2020…if the pac ridge continues to be as strong and sinks into the mid latitude and AO goes raging positive it’s game over. That’s a stable pattern that often lasts months snd would eat away what’s left of winter. There is no sign of that yet but that’s a way this could evolve where I would admit it’s game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 hours ago, IronTy said: Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts? He had homer simpson as his avatar I think. He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was. CrankyWxGuy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 3 hours ago, Ji said: I read somewhere that e qbo is a factor in slow moving mjo It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 Yeah, that's bad Severe thunderstorm watch for the Midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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