January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest edition of the weeklies looking good into mid Jan.

They look good out until ranges when it doesn’t matter. 
 

Couple points… 

1) sometimes when we think the long range guidance is “can kicking” it’s just that when it ends on a good look people project that to remain. But the western trough is ejecting waves and between them there will still be ridging.  That doesn’t mean we can’t get snow. A -NAO -epo -pna pattern can work in January if we get favorable wave spacing.  
 

Take the euro from yesterday to today. 
Day 15 last night looked good…

But look what day 16 was going to look like…

The euro today isn’t can kicking it’s just seeing past one wave to the next!  The pattern isn’t perfect “yet?” But it’s one we could work with. Just need things to line up. it gets even better by the second week of January on the weeklies. 

2) I know we make fun of the snow maps and taken by themselves they are useless but I think there is some value looking at this 7 day mean for the second week of January to support the h5 map you posted. 

That’s what we want a 7 day snow map to look like wrt where the snowfall is centered and the distribution.  Can clearly see what the guidance thinks the pattern will be like with waves riding SW to NE along the boundary.  

 

[RIC_WX]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

First I wanted to say even though I lamented the loss of some of our old regulars there has been some really good analysis on here lately. 
 

Second, I don’t mind scientific analysis that suggests results we don’t want. I don’t shy away from saying when it’s bad. But what is kinda annoying is the straight deb stuff with absolutely no legit analysis to support it. The “it’s gonna suck because it just sucks here most of the time” type stuff. Yea it’s probably going to suck at any given time. It sucks ~80% of the time. That’s our climo. Anyone can do that!  
 

What most of us are here for is looking for signs of and waiting for those rare instances when it doesnt suck. Having to Wade through dozens of posts of “it just sucks” absent any reasoning to support it sucks even more imo.  If you have legitimate observation based evidence that shows why it will suck by all means I don’t mind hearing and discussing it. But if you’re just venting because there isn’t any blue over you on the latest model run…that doesn’t add anything of value. 
 

just my 2 cents. 

I agree we all want to look smart and accurately predict the seasonal pattern progression with some scientific basis of thought.  I think some of the frustration / cynycisim however stems from all of the pre season prognostication, where one would expect it is easier to get the first month of the season right rather than the later months.  I don't recall many predicting on the record that December was going to more or less torch wire to wire - most of the predictions were for a "front loaded winter".  If the consensus forecast gets the first month completely wrong, it's hard to say we scientifically had any more than equal chances in speculating where we might end up.   

Last week the ensembles showed normal to below temperatures beginning on or about 12.28.  Now next week looks normal to above on the ensembles, and teasing the more significant pattern change in early January.  This isn't deb, it's just a disappointing reality for anyone anticipating avoiding a torch for the holidays.  There appears to be the potential for a lot of mild weather and a handful of only seasonably chilly days.

Eventually what appears to be an incredibly stable (but hostile for us) pattern in the pacific is going to break down.  Whomever can explain, time and predict this with accuracy deserves the accolades.  

I am pretty skeptical this happens in early January, at least on a sustained basis.  Happy to be called wrong if it does.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

I agree we all want to look smart and accurately predict the seasonal pattern progression with some scientific basis of thought.  I think some of the frustration / cynycisim however stems from all of the pre season prognostication, where one would expect it is easier to get the first month of the season right rather than the later months.  I don't recall many predicting on the record that December was going to more or less torch wire to wire - most of the predictions were for a "front loaded winter".  If the consensus forecast gets the first month completely wrong, it's hard to say we scientifically had any more than equal chances in speculating where we might end up.   

Last week the ensembles showed normal to below temperatures beginning on or about 12.28.  Now next week looks normal to above on the ensembles, and teasing the more significant pattern change in early January.  This isn't deb, it's just a disappointing reality for anyone anticipating avoiding a torch for the holidays.  There appears to be the potential for a lot of mild weather and a handful of only seasonably chilly days.

Eventually what appears to be an incredibly stable (but hostile for us) pattern in the pacific is going to break down.  Whomever can explain, time and predict this with accuracy deserves the accolades.  

I am pretty skeptical this happens in early January, at least on a sustained basis.  Happy to be called wrong if it does.

The guidance nailed the longwave pattern. And there was variability with some runs hinting the blocking would suppress the SE ridge and other runs saying the ridge would flex too much. The latter won. But how much suppression was always iffy. 

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I am getting a little nervous of what happens if the mjo stalls in 7 and never progresses. Frankly the dominant convection has stalled almost in 6. The really good roll forward analog projections are based on the fact that a high amplitude phase 6/7 almost always makes it to 8. But there are always exceptions. The mjo dying in phase 6/7 would possibly muck up my expected pattern progression. I’m not favoring that att but doesn’t mean I’m not aware of it. 

Just curious why you are not favoring the 6/7 death possibility at this time.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I am getting a little nervous of what happens if the mjo stalls in 7 and never progresses. Frankly the dominant convection has stalled almost in 6. The really good roll forward analog projections are based on the fact that a high amplitude phase 6/7 almost always makes it to 8. But there are always exceptions. The mjo dying in phase 6/7 would possibly muck up my expected pattern progression. I’m not favoring that att but doesn’t mean I’m not aware of it. 

What is the best MJO phase for us...8?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What is the best MJO phase for us...8?

8-1-2…I think

[aldie 22]

Guys don't forget Paul Roundy says cold pattern breaks down by mid January 

[brentrich]

17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Guys don't forget Paul Roundy says cold pattern breaks down by mid January 

How accurate is he? 75% of the time his forecast is busted so I wouldn't count on him TBH

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So, when the pattern changes around new year what sort of storms could we see? Would it be primarily storms that cut to our north like what the GFS has for the majority of it's run? Or costals/clippers? Or do we simply not know at all and which would be best for us? Either way with a cold block in place any storm should have a decent chance of scoring right? I mean if it is a clipper pattern than we score with cold smoke snow, if it is cutters than we get a front end thump. If we get costals then we should be fine as well. Just happy that from people who understand it that the pattern looks good and is not being kicked down the road and is at near peak climo. Of course we could still fail.

Between now and 2022, any frozen precipitation will be front end stuff ahead of a warm front. The models have shown this as a possibility. What we’d hope for in January are overrunning events along a quasi-stationary boundary to our south. Look at the very end of todays 18z GFS and you can sort of see how this works. SE ridge gets suppressed, mean boundary is to our south, and waves run along it with us on the cold side. That can be pretty lucrative. 

[clskinsfan]

4 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeesh!  Dafuq is going on in there?  I can't even follow any of the lines.  What, is it bouncing back and forth in Phase 7-8?  (Maybe not a bad thing?)

Going into 8 in January broke the computer.  If it does make it into 8 the MJO forecast from a month ago would be spot on. So kudo's to that.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Just curious why you are not favoring the 6/7 death possibility at this time.

Still riding history that suggests amplified waves that start in 6/7 almost always make it to 8. Just the %

58 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What is the best MJO phase for us...8?

8/1

[BristowWx]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Still riding history that suggests amplified waves that start in 6/7 almost always make it to 8. Just the %

8/1

What’s wrong with 2 and even 3?  Curious. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, BristowWx said:

What’s wrong with 2 and even 3?  Curious. 

2 is pretty good usually. 3 is good for us in March.

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

2 is pretty good usually. 3 is good for us in March.

So if it keeps moving at this speed we’re good! 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Between now and 2022, any frozen precipitation will be front end stuff ahead of a warm front. The models have shown this as a possibility. What we’d hope for in January are overrunning events along a quasi-stationary boundary to our south. Look at the very end of todays 18z GFS and you can sort of see how this works. SE ridge gets suppressed, mean boundary is to our south, and waves run along it with us on the cold side. That can be pretty lucrative. 

Those are great events because you and build up a thick, dense sleepy snowpack.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Between now and 2022, any frozen precipitation will be front end stuff ahead of a warm front. The models have shown this as a possibility. What we’d hope for in January are overrunning events along a quasi-stationary boundary to our south. Look at the very end of todays 18z GFS and you can sort of see how this works. SE ridge gets suppressed, mean boundary is to our south, and waves run along it with us on the cold side. That can be pretty lucrative. 

Overruns and we get 4” and is forecasted to switch to rain but usually just drizzles itself out 

[Ji]

Such boring model runs. 01-02 all over again

[CAPE]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Such boring model runs. 01-02 all over again

But the GFS gave you digital snow.

[CAPE]

Good thread from griteater on the pattern progression wrt AAM and MJO.

 

 

[Ji]

Good thread from griteater on the pattern progression wrt AAM and MJO.
 
 

The ensembles are definitely kicking the csn now. Psu cant really argue that. That se ridge a monster

[BristowWx]

that -PNA is also a monster.  the -NAO seems to only benefit the NE in the coming weeks

[IronTy]

Just now, BristowWx said:

that -PNA is also a monster.  the -NAO seems to only benefit the NE in the coming weeks

GFS has DC at 71F on jan-5 now lol.  Petunias and hostas are in no danger.  

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, IronTy said:

GFS has DC at 71F on jan-5 now lol.  Petunias and hostas are in no danger.  

If Roundy is correct and the pattern breaks down by mid-month it will be interesting to see where we go from there. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

If Roundy is correct and the pattern breaks down by mid-month it will be interesting to see where we go from there. 

My point about roundy is what pattern is there to break down? The 5th of January is mid month now?

[SnowenOutThere]

I may not be the most informed poster here but this is a bit concerning if the models continue kicking the can, or maybe the last two runs are just flukes and it will go back to a Jan 6th transition. If it does not however than we have to realize that this pattern change went from after Christmas to after New Years to now possibly mid month? By that point we might have to accept that nothing will happen if the can kicking continues.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

My point about roundy is what pattern is there to break down? The 5th of January is mid month now?

Quite true.  not sure how it can get too much deeper into the warm anomalies than what is shown unless we just migrate to a sustained SER +15 type pattern.  We might wish for 01-02 if that happens.  what can you do

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I may not be the most informed poster here but this is a bit concerning if the models continue kicking the can, or maybe the last two runs are just flukes and it will go back to a Jan 6th transition. If it does not however than we have to realize that this pattern change went from after Christmas to after New Years to now possibly mid month? By that point we might have to accept that nothing will happen if the can kicking continues.

Read the thread I posted, then dig a bit more into the teleconnections if you want to learn more about the pattern drivers. There are legit reasons behind the model 'can kicking'.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Read the thread I posted, then dig a bit more into the teleconnections if you want to learn more about the pattern drivers. There are legit reasons behind the model 'can kicking'.

Basically the MJO is stalled out which affects the pacific jet stream to not extend as much leading to a continuation of the current pattern. Though the MJO should reach where we need it to be but it might not move till early January. My question is: at what point do we say that the MJO won’t progress, as in when do we through in the towel? By New Years if the change has still been kicked down the road?

[CAPE]

For all the talk of can kicking, this is a pretty good look right here, and there are hints on the ops and ens runs of a modest wave or 2 tracking along the boundary during the Jan 1-5 window. Just need that boundary to be far enough south.

[IronTy]

Does anybody remember the name of the weather blog by that guy who basically hated the world and lamented twitter weenies all the time in his posts?  He had homer simpson as his avatar I think.  He used to post good stuff on his website but I totally forgot what the name of it was.