WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Alright, it’s time. Let’s go .. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo. The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS. But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently. As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge. You’d think there’d be some chances with this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo. The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS. But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently. As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge. You’d think there’d be some chances with this look. I like that pattern a lot. I don’t think that would be a dry pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 EPS is pretty chilly coast to coast at the end of the run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo. The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS. But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently. As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge. You’d think there’d be some chances with this look.Ice storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 EPS is pretty chilly coast to coast at the end of the run.Im gonna pretend that is snow cover 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 40 minutes ago, nj2va said: We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo. The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS. But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently. As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge. You’d think there’d be some chances with this look. Ice storm And maybe some front end thumps. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: EPS is pretty chilly coast to coast at the end of the run. Im gonna pretend that is snow cover Got some work to do. At least the model is indicating a chance of frozen southward in the LR. We got nothing for the next week at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Perhaps in early January as the -NAO weakens while the EPO trends or remains slightly negative - certainly some precipitation chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, nj2va said: We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo. The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS. But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently. As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge. You’d think there’d be some chances with this look. Ice storm Can you share the features at 500 that favor an ice storm in this setup? Would like to know what to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can you share the features at 500 that favor an ice storm in this setup? Would like to know what to look for. Warm air aloft; cold air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Maybe one of those pesky GLL's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Can you share the features at 500 that favor an ice storm in this setup? Would like to know what to look for. A bit of a southwest flow into confluence in the east is my take. Likely surface cold in the east with warm air pushing moisture into it. Seems like a perfect cad setup to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Got some work to do. At least the model is indicating a chance of frozen southward in the LR. We got nothing for the next week at least. "Have to lay down the glacier to make way for the Arctic Express". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 33 minutes ago, IronTy said: "Have to lay down the glacier to make way for the Arctic Express". I'd feel quite a bit more optimistic if that was the model median as opposed to mean; I've never understood why they don't plot that instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: I'd feel quite a bit more optimistic if that was the model median as opposed to mean; I've never understood why they don't plot that instead The median can be higher than the mean just as it can be lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The median can be higher than the mean just as it can be lower It’s still a better indicator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 7 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Lunch time GooFuS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: Evil looking. Literally. I see an evil dog face. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s still a better indicator I’d think more so on events that have already happened as opposed to snowfall forecasting. Neither method is worth two cents when it comes to forecasted snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2021 Author Share Posted December 20, 2021 51 minutes ago, CAPE said: There it is. Cold, dry, wind. My favorite 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Yeah, cold Stratosphere has a -40dm +0d correlation. If it happens without the stratosphere a lot, that's a decadal -NAO cycle. I wouldn't be surprised though if in verification it trends a little less -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 29 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Evil looking. Literally. I see an evil dog face. Lol. Where'd that come from? Boss run. In the meantime here's a pic of my elevated potted petunias still blooming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Where'd that come from? Boss run. In the meantime here's a pic of my elevated potted petunias still blooming. I had a hosta sprout a leaf in my backyard! lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Pink on the GFS ensembles now through 168hr 7 days. I've been watching these long term models every day since probably 2001, and I've never seen that deep and long of a 500mb anomaly. And, it's at 55N degrees! Some perspective: Dec 1 - Jan 3 will come in at +380dm. In 75 years Since 1948: 2. is +280 in 2010 3. is +230 in 1955. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Nice gefs run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2021 Share Posted December 20, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Nice gefs run Was about to post the same. EPO re-establishes itself just after the new year and connects to the NAO. 50/50 heights remain low throughout. Would love to see that EPO ridge shift just a little east though. Even so...that cold in NW Canada gets released and pushes to the SE. We also see the increased precip anomalies from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic towards the end of the run. That's another thing that's been noticeable for quite a few runs now. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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