Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Any clowns to post? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Signed on the dotted line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: as the old saying goes.....hook, line and sinker.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Musturd sounds yummy..... Probably "Grey Poop On" brand. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 38 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Even Hartford/Tolland may get a nice thump before pl/zr/ra. Maybe a 1-3 kinda deal for N CT and more north of the Pike? Agree... Still close call for northern CT with respect to seeing measurable s/ip, but more wiggle room with 12z euro trends. Overall a pretty messy mix but front-end dump has improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No one's asking me ... But I'm still okay with front snow spits going over to ZR/PL/R mix in the interior, with snow mainly southern VT/NH ...maybe down to Rt 2 along N Mass interior. I don't think the front IB is that huge though, because this thing is mechanically not huge. But ...sometimes things can maximize too ... There's that, plus ... that local climate group tendency in the verified numbers to result above guidance - ..so Anyway, I'm calling that a relative win; probably already is, considering 3 days ago ...not many were taking this seriously, either for entertainment or impact aside. My thing then was that it should be considered, and..it would like be colder - I still feel that way just based a-prior experience. It's after Dec 15 ... with a new polar boundary S of us. I realize GW is going to eventually f-us good and proper right out of winter, but it is too early to start assuming those kind of fronts end up back N of our latitude in flat screamin' flows +PP over BTV. With any storm, when in doubt, always predict Woodford VT gets the most snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 27 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: It wouldn’t surprise me if we start seeing some winters where the south coast and islands fails to receive 1 inch for the entire winter. Not very often but some years I guarantee will be snowless. Just a totally Silly post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I'm saying that as a 'least' result - I mean, at this point, I'd hedge the Euro run and put money on that ... ( but tomorrow is a different day at the casino) But you know, even for the Euro, ..when the flow is compressed and fast like this, the snow vs mix vs rain corridors may also narrow. Small or even nuanced perturbations in where the ballast of the system tracks can make for impact variances along challengingly small forecast distances. And those small variances are below the model(s) capacity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No one's asking me ... But I'm still okay with front snow spits going over to ZR/PL/R mix in the interior, with snow mainly southern VT/NH ...maybe down to Rt 2 along N Mass interior. I don't think the front IB is that huge though, because this thing is mechanically not huge. But ...sometimes things can maximize too ... There's that, plus ... that local climate group tendency in the verified numbers to result above guidance - ..so Anyway, I'm calling that a relative win; probably already is, considering 3 days ago ...not many were taking this seriously, either for entertainment or impact aside. My thing then was that it should be considered, and..it would like be colder - I still feel that way just based a-prior experience. It's after Dec 15 ... with a new polar boundary S of us. I realize GW is going to eventually f-us good and proper right out of winter, but it is too early to start assuming those kind of fronts end up back N of our latitude in flat screamin' flows +PP over BTV. We appreciate you Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Give me a few inches then heavy icing . Temps cold next week. Stays OTG and we track the big boy slated for Xmas Eve Climo says 55 and rain for xmas. <grinch emoji> 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 33 minutes ago, klw said: With any storm, when in doubt, always predict Woodford VT gets the most snow. Need to maintain cold and the proper snow levels to keep the bodies covered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Just a totally Silly post. Nah....maybe a foot or less but not that little 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: Nah....maybe a foot or less but not that little 17 years of data, my lowest seasonal totals were 15.7" in 11/12 and 16.0" in 06/07 Quite hard to go below a foot, but certainly possible in an ultra ratter. Maybe SE CT would have a better shot, or Nantucket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: 17 years of data, my lowest seasonal totals were 15.7" in 11/12 and 16.0" in 06/07 Quite hard to go below a foot, but certainly possible in an ultra ratter. Maybe SE CT would have a better shot, or Nantucket LOL even where you are, your "lowest" is higher than what I had in Boston in 11/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: LOL even where you are, your "lowest" is higher than what I had in Boston in 11/12. Yeah that would qualify as an ultra ratter, especially for the south shore. I got lucky with a storm that clipped the coast with 75% of my seasonal total. Otherwise, I would've had around 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 18z HRRR is a nice thump. Right to the Cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, dryslot said: Need to maintain cold and the proper snow levels to keep the bodies covered. Hah. When I drive through there I always think the same thing. Is that just a stigma or does the place have a history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 GYX first map 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 First watch hours of the season should be up shortly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: Nah....maybe a foot or less but not that little Exactly my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z HRRR is a nice thump. Right to the Cape. We thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We thump 18z NAM will probably bring you back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z NAM will probably bring you back to reality. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pretty much. LOL. That model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Pretty much. LOL. That model. Not very stable run to run, Fluctuates a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Box early forecast is most similar to 12z GFS If this remains colder like 12z Euro/RGEM, would add 1-2" in most areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Box early forecast is most similar to 12z GFS If this remains colder like 12z Euro/RGEM, would add 1-2" in most areas I'd take 3-4" of snow and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 56 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 17 years of data, my lowest seasonal totals were 15.7" in 11/12 and 16.0" in 06/07 Quite hard to go below a foot, but certainly possible in an ultra ratter. Maybe SE CT would have a better shot, or Nantucket 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Just a totally Silly post. So when does he start predicting a Venus climate here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Meh Your poor, tormented winter soul lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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