Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21

[dryslot]

Just now, MaineJayhawk said:

Not sure why bacun is only #3 on the list

Would be my #1

[weathafella]

Musturd sounds yummy.....

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Would be my #1

 

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Not sure why bacun is only #3 on the list

I could see it taking a back seat to Ribi

[dendrite]

That cold knifes in just in time for SNE to get frozen. Looks like the best fronto rides up the 295K isentropic surface while the warm tongue comes in up around 310K...gotta love the mixed bag overrunning events.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lot of pingers in that? 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

For the CT peeps....we are posting those jabs mostly for Kevin. If there is a way to manufacture a hole in Tolland...we would. 

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is still an unbelievable snow depth map....lol. That was a couple days after the dual part MLK event in 2010.

Not upset in the slightest.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Not upset in the slightest.

 

I love how his coworker in the back stands up to briefly survey the scene, the goes back to work lol

[ORH_wxman]

12z Euro a tick colder than the 00z run through 54h. (didn't compare to 06z)

[dryslot]

12z Euro continues the theme @12z, Couple ticks colder too.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

12z Euro a tick colder than the 00z run through 54h. (didn't compare to 06z)

Definitely colder than 6z.

[dryslot]

6z was pretty far north.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Definitely colder than 6z.

We’re trending the right direction at least. 

[ORH_wxman]

Tauntonblizz sucked back in on this run...pretty decent for SE MA on the front end.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

6z was pretty far north.

Yea, that run had me uncomfortable.

[CT Rain]

Even Hartford/Tolland may get a nice thump before pl/zr/ra. Maybe a 1-3 kinda deal for N CT and more north of the Pike?

[ORH_wxman]

I'd sign on the dotted line if I could make this run verify...I'd take 3-4" with some IP/ZR in there and run. Need another tick colder though before we get those NAM runs 30 hours out that have the chickens getting pelted with BBs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd sign on the dotted line if I could make this run verify...I'd take 3-4" with some IP/ZR in there and run. Need another tick colder though before we get those NAM runs 30 hours out that have the chickens getting pelted with BBs.

I thought it would be better in NE MA. Most of the improvement was central MA.

[UnitedWx]

41 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Musturd sounds yummy.....

Spicy Brown???

[dendrite]

Looks like all systems go up here. Euro pounds around midnight Sat night. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought it would be better in NE MA. Most of the improvement was central MA.

You've been pretty consistently in the 3-5/4-6 zone on almost every run save for a couple scaryish torch runs. I wouldn't be sweating there too much regardless. Worst case scenario for you is prob like 2" with several hours of scalping BBs....more likely you'll prob get a good high end advisory thump

Also, the snow maps are more sensitive in ORH county because the sfc temps there are cold...so any run where the warm layer aloft is colder/warmer will affect the totals more. Your area is prob getting a slight penalty on various clown maps for sfc temps near or just above freezing (I'll take the under...you'll prob be a couple ticks below freezing in reality)....so even a "Colder" run aloft, doesn't help you as much as it should.

[Snowcrazed71]

Do we see the precipitation changing back to may be snow in Northern Connecticut Saturday night?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You've been pretty consistently in the 3-5/4-6 zone on almost every run save for a couple scaryish torch runs. I wouldn't be sweating there too much regardless. Worst case scenario for you is prob like 2" with several hours of scalping BBs....more likely you'll prob get a good high end advisory thump

Also, the snow maps are more sensitive in ORH county because the sfc temps there are cold...so any run where the warm layer aloft is colder/warmer will affect the totals more. Your area is prob getting a slight penalty on various clown maps for sfc temps near or just above freezing (I'll take the under...you'll prob be a couple ticks below freezing in reality)....so even a "Colder" run aloft, doesn't help you as much as it should.

I figured it was overdoing BL warmth.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Do we see the precipitation changing back to may be snow in Northern Connecticut Saturday night?

Doubt it...dryslot punches in pretty hard from the WSW. Might get a few flurries on the back end, but nothing meaningful unless this trended further south.

[Damage In Tolland]

Give me a few inches then heavy icing . Temps cold next week. Stays OTG and we track the big boy slated for Xmas Eve

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tauntonblizz sucked back in on this run...pretty decent for SE MA on the front end.

Nice run… prob 2-4” with som sleet and brief rain to end 

[IowaStorm05]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, you love to flaunt when hills looks snowy, but the coastal dwellers look like shit. lol

BS

It wouldn’t surprise me if we start seeing some winters where the south coast and islands fails to receive 1 inch for the entire winter. Not very often but some years I guarantee will be snowless. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nice run… prob 2-4” with som sleet and brief rain to end 

[NorEastermass128]

Any clowns to post?

[Typhoon Tip]

No one's asking me ... But I'm still okay with front snow spits going over to ZR/PL/R mix in the interior, with snow mainly southern VT/NH ...maybe down to Rt 2 along N Mass interior.  I don't think the front IB is that huge though, because this thing is mechanically not huge.   But ...sometimes things can maximize too ...

There's that, plus ... that local climate group tendency in the verified numbers to result above guidance - ..so

Anyway, I'm calling that a relative win; probably already is, considering 3 days ago ...not many were taking this seriously, either for entertainment or impact aside.  My thing then was that it should be considered, and..it would like be colder - I still feel that way just based a-prior experience.   It's after Dec 15 ... with a new polar boundary S of us.  I realize GW is going to eventually f-us good and proper right out of winter, but it is too early to start assuming those kind of fronts end up back N of our latitude in flat screamin' flows +PP over BTV.