HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 1 to 2 looks good here still wish this would sink south 25 miles or so but close to go time now I would go with the lower end of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Long term still looks fine..just frustrated over tmw. Should have seen that coming, so rough start to the year for me. Even Kev was all over that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Mid levels warm pretty quickly, if QPF comes in more paltry than modeled than this is a non-event for most. Poor snow growth -SN to pellets and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Long term still looks fine..just frustrated over tmw. Should have seen that coming, so rough start to the year for me. Even Kev was all over that Go easy on yourself, SWFE can go either direction. I don't like falling into the mindset that "mid-levels always torch sooner than modeled with these systems" because they don't always. This one also lacks the initial qpf thump unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM gives me like 1.5". Will and Scott nailed this trend days ago. Kudos. I’m sure they did but “days ago” this was tracking through CNE heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 I don’t know what is wrong with my psychology but when an event turns up like this I can’t learn to accept it. im still in a state of disbelief that has me coming back to this board and the model runs on pivotal even though everything has agreed for some time now that this is going to be a no brainer rain event for us. At one point I was upset that I’d be on the south coast and not at home when the action is going on but now it clearly doesn’t even matter because I seriously doubt Willimantic is even going to get a coating of snow. It’s probably gonna do a Valentine’s Day 2007 westerly deal where you get one large flake of snow among a sleet onset. Even warmer than that. With that storm it at least left a coating of ice on top of a liquid underside there. That’s not even going to happen here. It’s just going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Look at it on the bright side … it’ll snow right where the new climate regime we’ve clicked into says it should… How’s that for trolling. Lol. ho man 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 I will be lucky to get a couple tenths of precip lol. Nice little dumper for the ski areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: I don’t know what is wrong with my psychology but when an event turns up like this I can’t learn to accept it. im still in a state of disbelief that has me coming back to this board and the model runs on pivotal even though everything has agreed for some time now that this is going to be a no brainer rain event for us. At one point I was upset that I’d be on the south coast and not at home when the action is going on but now it clearly doesn’t even matter because I seriously doubt Willimantic is even going to get a coating of snow. It’s probably gonna do a Valentine’s Day 2007 westerly deal where you get one large flake of snow among a sleet onset. Even warmer than that. With that storm it at least left a coating of ice on top of a liquid underside there. That’s not even going to happen here. It’s just going to rain. This never was a IJD storm. I don't know where you got that idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Look at it in the bright side … it’ll snow right where the new climate regime we’ve clicked into says it should… How’s that for trolling. Lol. ho man Like I’ve said I believe that in the not-too-distant future, the south coast and islands are going to do occasional winters in which these locations fail to receive one inch of snow all season long. Definitely by 2100. I’d bet $100 on it. No more though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’m sure they did but “days ago” this tracking through CNE heh Yes, and they never fell for it when it dropped far to the south. I am sure you are also right about low level cold hanging tough....just the mid levels that go to crap. 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Go easy on yourself, SWFE can go either direction. I don't like falling into the mindset that "mid-levels always torch sooner than modeled with these systems" because they don't always. This one also lacks the initial qpf thump unfortunately. I'm not suicidal lol Just frustrating because I knew right after I released the first map it was too aggressive, but anyway, I learned a lot today about what to look for in order to use soundings more effectively, so not a loss at all. Messing up his how we learn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: This never was a IJD storm. I don't know where you got that idea Yea, I would have been at peace with it on Monday if I lived there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: This never was a IJD storm. I don't know where you got that idea I never said it was. But much earlier model runs did suggest the possibility for accumulating snow and it was even in the Boston forecast discussions for a little bit. Once that happens I have a tendancy to ride the northerly trending to the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Like I’ve said I believe that in the not-too-distant future, the south coast and islands are going to do occasional winters in which these locations fail to receive one inch of snow all season long. Definitely by 2100. I’d bet $100 on it. No more though. Deal. When he gets old enough to understand, I'll instruct my son to dig you up and collect on his 79th bday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I never said it was. But much earlier model runs did suggest the possibility for accumulating snow and it was even in the Boston forecast discussions for a little bit. Once that happens I have a tendancy to ride the northerly trending to the bitter end. You should know better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Deal. When he gets old enough to understand, I'll instruct my son to dig you up and collect on his 79th bday. Love these people who make definitive statements about the future when they will be dead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Deal. When he gets old enough to understand, I'll instruct my son to dig you up and collect on his 79th bday. It’s going to be easier than that. I’ve actually just filled out the paperwork this week to arrange for my body to go straight to the body farm once I die. I will be studied as I decompose. Then, my bones will sit among a collection at the university and probably be occasionally studied by students. A major reason I’m doing this is to save my family money on disposal of my remains. Nobody wants to spend $3000 on a coffin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You should know better I know. But I don’t feel. And people make their decisions by the heart. I’ve “known” that accumulating snow was quite unlikely by this morning. But I always come back in the hopes of a sudden change of pattern. The hopes of a major overperforming event which tracks 40 miles south of where modeled. Shit like that happened all the time in 1996 and one time in Reno we got 8-16 inches of snow on a day in which the forecast said “a chance of showers”. i get it. It’s not 1996 anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Even the RDPS has given up the ghost around these parts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: It’s going to be easier than that. I’ve actually just filled out the paperwork this week to arrange for my body to go straight to the body farm once I die. I will be studied as I decompose. Then, my bones will sit among a collection at the university and probably be occasionally studied by students. A major reason I’m doing this is to save my family money on disposal of my remains. Nobody wants to spend $3000 on a coffin. Get some met students to weenie tag your corpse once it snows that winter. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Love these people who make definitive statements about the future when they will be dead I know, it’s so dam stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 don't need to look at models, reading the past few pages of turmoil spells it out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I know, it’s so dam stupid. It doesn’t matter if someone will be dead when they predict something. It’s not even a relevant factor. Warmer periods have happened in the past, tree ring studies showed that in the Middle Ages, the Sierra Nevada was much much warmer than it is even today. It doesn’t matter that I was also dead then, or rather, unborn. Scientists have suggested, with pretty good evidence and reason, that future decades will be significantly warmer the only reason anybody heckles them is if it’s a political thing. And that IS stupid. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 56 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I would go with the lower end of that range. looks that way.. 0z GFS a tad warmer again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Nobody there to console him. May have to send police for welfare check. Anthony says he will drive up from Brooklyn to do him a solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Nobody there to console him. May have to send police for welfare check. I'm on my way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 NAM /GFS? No more model talk in the storm thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: NAM /GFS? No more model talk in the storm thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, IowaStorm05 said: It doesn’t matter if someone will be dead when they predict something. It’s not even a relevant factor. Warmer periods have happened in the past, tree ring studies showed that in the Middle Ages, the Sierra Nevada was much much warmer than it is even today. It doesn’t matter that I was also dead then, or rather, unborn. Scientists have suggested, with pretty good evidence and reason, that future decades will be significantly warmer the only reason anybody heckles them is if it’s a political thing. And that IS stupid. You are being heckled because the notion of any locale in Mass being shut out with respect to seasonal snowfall within the next century is asinine. No one is rebuking the idea of GW in an of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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