Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Todays highs far surpassed guidance and forecasts. Keep that in mind for expectations tomorrow warm ground will prevent accumulation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: warm ground will prevent accumulation Not that .. but it may drive every p type farther north For example . 54 here today . So you remove all icing out of forecast tomorrow. And any snow that falls farther north early on will be wasted to cooling the low levels . So it’s all connected 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not that .. but it may drive every p type farther north For example . 54 here today . So you remove all icing out of forecast tomorrow. And any snow that falls farther north early on will be wasted to cooling the low levels . So it’s all connected Well the high school is sitting at a wet bulb of 40, which is what really matters. And that wet bulb should actually cool a bit tonight prior to clouds moving in. Color me more bearish if the 00z soundings are substantially off on their temps aloft. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well the high school is sitting at a wet bulb of 40, which is what really matters. And that wet bulb should actually cool a bit tonight prior to clouds moving in. Color me more bearish if the 00z soundings are substantially off on their temps aloft. You’re going to probably see a lot of reduction forecasts south to north in the general sense . Still snow up north but less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Final mow to get rid of leaves completed. Hoping tomorrow marks the beginning of continuous snow cover for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re going to probably see a lot of reduction forecasts south to north in the general sense . Still snow up north but less Just step out into the rain with the toaster still plugged in. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Just step out into the rain with the toaster still plugged in. Enjoy the deep snows bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Just step out into the rain with the toaster still plugged in. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 May 1st will be here before we know it 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: May 1st will be here before we know it Starting the thread early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Starting the thread early? I usually wait until winter's been sucking and it's about time to cancel it. And then after starting it, about 2-3 weeks later we get nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 18z NAM looked slightly less offensive with the warm nose aloft down here in the early going...so it actually gives us an inch or two versus very little on the 12z run. However, the 3km wasn't interested in throwing us that bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I’m legit curious who is thinking snow of more than 1” in SNE that’s not Hunch or Berks ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m legit curious who is thinking snow of more than 1” in SNE that’s not Hunch or Berks ? I still think my area is likely to get more than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 You guys see the UK ensemble got added to F5? lol I'm excited to announce we have acquired another model, the MOGREPS-G! MOGREPS is an Ensemble based off of the UKMET/Unified Model (UM) from Met Office. It is available under the 'Models' menu for pro users. MOGREPS maps are limited, but it does have a nice radar product, temperatures, winds, dew points, humidity, pressure and SBCAPE/CIN maps. MOGREPS is a 20km resolution, 198 hour, 18 member mean. It initializes with 4D-Var assimilation and has 70 vertical levels. Our MOGREPS maps are available from 12z and 00z runs and update roughly around 19:30z and 07:30z respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Nam's not playing nice with the qpf distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 NAM hinting at a slow exit with some good bye snows for eastern pike region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: 54.5F today and 4-6" tomorrow. Better than the other way around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still think my area is likely to get more than an inch. Hope so man . In all seriousness, good luck. - Kev’s Dealing With It 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m legit curious who is thinking snow of more than 1” in SNE that’s not Hunch or Berks ? I mean a couple of the models think so. I don’t know if you can assign them personhood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 GYX just pulled the trigger on Winter Storm Warnings. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 334 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 MEZ007-008-013-020-NHZ001-180445- /O.NEW.KGYX.WS.W.0006.211218T1800Z-211219T1600Z/ Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Southern Franklin-Androscoggin- Northern Coos- Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, Middle Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley, Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Errol, Millsfield, and Colebrook 334 PM EST Fri Dec 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches. * WHERE...In New Hampshire, Northern Coos County. In Maine, Androscoggin, Northern Franklin, Northern Oxford and Southern Franklin Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to low visibility and snow covered roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I usually wait until winter's been sucking and it's about time to cancel it. And then after starting it, about 2-3 weeks later we get nailed Well at least wait til Wednesday next week, since winter doesn’t start until the day before(on Tuesday), and if you don’t have snow by Wednesday….ya know a ratter is enroute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hope so man . In all seriousness, good luck. - Kev’s Dealing With It You were def right for the most part.....anything over 3" is looking like a longshot here now. I def jumped the gun on Wednesday....once I really checked soundings and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 This storm sucks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: This storm sucks. Most do. Otherwise, we’d average 175” a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I usually wait until winter's been sucking and it's about time to cancel it. And then after starting it, about 2-3 weeks later we get nailed Start it now then, thanks. Love, every snow weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m legit curious who is thinking snow of more than 1” in SNE that’s not Hunch or Berks ? Definitely mostly nothing for the SoP crew. Some flakes and maybe a quick poke at 1” for some spots but this is trash, next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: This storm sucks. Was never supposed to be anything substantial ( unless you're in the mountains ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The leaves are getting that leathery look… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 NAM is a nice coating of ice Pike South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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