dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowGiant611 said: This looks like slight bust potential in the Capital region of NH. Consider: 1. Air/ground temps: These have been higher than expected this week, including > 50 degrees today. Low temps are only forecast to drop to 32 or so tonight, so this is a factor. 2. Dry air at storm onset : because the temps have been so high this week, we'd need a really good front-end thump to cool the lower levels and promote rapid sticking/accumulations on non-grassy surfaces. I see a good virga event for the first few hours due to the column needing to saturate based on the cold air draining from Canada. 3. Climo - need a stronger low in order pull more cold air down from Canada in a more aggressive fashion. This looks like 3-5", but not as much accumulation on non-grassy surfaces. Enjoy the 5-8”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I thinking 2-3” of sand here. At least it will have staying power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Enjoy the 5-8”. Yeah, I'm not sure what the real "bust" potential is for you. Expecting 8 and getting 5? Meh. Nearly the entire CWA should wet bulb down to 32 if not colder when precip comes in. Only place I'm slightly concerned with warm surface air is the Seacoast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 This is why I had said slight, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Will NAM 12K be high fiving NAM 3K tomorrow for being first to see the overly protruding warm nose? I'm guessing yes. Say what you want about the NAM, but ignoring the early NAM runs that bring the warmth further north can be a bad idea. I wouldn't be surprised if sleet mixes in halfway up VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowgeek said: Will NAM 12K be high fiving NAM 3K tomorrow for being first to see the overly protruding warm nose? I'm guessing yes. Say what you want about the NAM, but ignoring the early NAM runs that bring the warmth further north can be a bad idea. I wouldn't be surprised if sleet mixes in halfway up VT. The NAM always leads the charge with the mid-level warm push. The mix and change over is probably faster than modeled 2/3 of the time. I just don’t wanna see you and I getting an hour of snow and then all of a sudden pellets are already mixing in. That’s when you know the mix line is going to race right into central New England. Whatever, just hoping for 2 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 14 hours ago, weatherwiz said: idk...alot of these 0z NAM soundings are kind garbage. Thinking back to the many previous events which featured big front end thumps...the signals for that was much stronger than what is being shown here. Like the best lift is actually displaced kinda far south. This whole look overall is just kinda odd December 2003 you had one storm do a 100 per cent snow in SE CT and SW RI. This was followed up by a storm that IIRC dumped like 6 more inches of a thump before things turned to rain. it was the 3rd storm that melted everything I think now. Of course, the whole 03-04 season was dynamite for everyone but even more significant for coastal peeps, where storms would leave Woonsocket smoking virga. It might have only been a little above normal for the coast but with the way things have gone in the last two decades down there it seemed to stand out to me among the best 5 or 6 seasons in the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, SnowGiant611 said: This is why I had said slight, lol. Remember what warm ground did in Oct 11? We have low level CAA for the next 2 hours...wetbulbs will be plenty cold over the interior zones come go-time. The models do a pretty good job of accounting for virga as well...especially those with more resolution/vertical levels. These SWFEs tend to not deliver many surprises for those in the all-snow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The NAM always leads the charge with the mid-level warm push. The mix and change over is probably faster than modeled 2/3 of the time. I just don’t wanna see you and I getting an hour of snow and then all of a sudden pellets are already mixing in. That’s when you know the mix line is going to race right into central New England. Whatever, just hoping for 2 inches of snow. Yeah, 2" and then sleet will give much more visual appeal. Gotta cover the grass, twigs, leaves, etc. The low excitement level for this storm on the board is keeping my expectations low. So if we get more, I'll be pleasantly surprised! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Euroi ticked warmer again....pretty big juice-up in QPF though...so that's gonna be better for those who can stay snow long enough to take advantage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I took a look at all the models I have access too and the agreement for plain rain here looks quite locked in. Like not even close. But the only odd thing about it all is the rain snow like seems to run a perfect north south latitudinal stretch. It just looks bizarre to me. Usually you see a more diagonal line. That is my only scant hope that it’s wrong and the line will go more SW to NE. Otherwise we are clearly screwed. And as for the 12z Euro it does suggest a quick inch. But it’s kind of an outlier. And it ticked warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euroi ticked warmer again....pretty big juice-up in QPF though...so that's gonna be better for those who can stay snow long enough to take advantage. Aloft or surface ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: I took a look at all the models I have access too and the agreement for plain rain here looks quite locked in. Like not even close. But the only odd thing about it all is the rain snow like seems to run a perfect north south latitudinal stretch. It just looks bizarre to me. Usually you see a more diagonal line. That is my only scant hope that it’s wrong and the line will go more SW to NE. Otherwise we are clearly screwed. The WAA has a harder time the further east you get....this isn't like a usual coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I'm going with 2" +/- not feeling this one.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Hoping to score an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euroi ticked warmer again....pretty big juice-up in QPF though...so that's gonna be better for those who can stay snow long enough to take advantage. There's the ramp up in QPF I was betting on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euroi ticked warmer again....pretty big juice-up in QPF though...so that's gonna be better for those who can stay snow long enough to take advantage. Its actually better for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Identical to 00z, just a bit more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Even worse than I thought is timing. Mid day stuff. And, I’m not going to be where I live during the first half of this even. I’m going to be 1 mile from the south shore. and when I go home the sleet rain snow line will travel back up with me. totally screwed. a few days ago I thought this was going to be a Saturday night thing. Until I checked just now I assumed that I’d be able to enjoy the first portion of it and see snow. You know what I better hope a colder solution does pop up and pan out because if it’s dumping snow in the morning, which it’s not going to do, I could just call out due to weather conditions. You don’t get penalized for that when it happens. But what are the odds anything will be good enough to justify that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its actually better for me. Yeah it was better for everyone N of rt 2....it wasn't much difference here, but it trimmed the 1-2" amounts down in CT/RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Back in the day this was the type of "storm" that had mets discussing the importance of having snow on the ground to act as a refrigerator of sorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Have to say, Euro doesnt look like it did too great from Day 5 to Day 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: Even worse than I thought is timing. Mid day stuff. I'm guessing areas that snow won't see worsening road conditions til later in the afternoon. Looks like a lot of crap early in the afternoon before the heavier rates pop in after 21z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Have to say, Euro doesnt look like it did too great from Day 5 to Day 2. It was way flatter than most models for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: It was way flatter than most models for a couple days. Definitely lost the to GFS in the 96-120 timeframe....so a bad showing by the Euro. Confidence not restored after its win last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Definitely lost the to GFS in the 96-120 timeframe....so a bad showing by the Euro. Confidence not restored after its win last week. nails the least snowy forecast… blows it when it’s the coldest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Definitely lost the to GFS in the 96-120 timeframe....so a bad showing by the Euro. Confidence not restored after its win last week. It nailed H5 over Belarus though 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Just one stop shop. They are looking for you over on HCS. They need you to provide them with some hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 54.5F today and 4-6" tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Todays highs far surpassed guidance and forecasts. Keep that in mind for expectations tomorrow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now