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Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21


dryslot
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58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like BTV and GYX went a little aggressive last night but it’ll be ratio dependent IMO.  Splitting hairs as a bunch of 6.2” grids trigger 6-8” maps.

I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). 

Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast.

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). 

Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast.

That’s been my hold up… ratios.  And getting widespread 6-8” will need a good 3/4ths inch QPF.  Not sure if this has it in it. I like widespread 4-6” with maybe some spot 6-8”.

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). 

Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast.

A lot of these when i core sample i'm around 7:1 unless its a lot colder aloft.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s been my hold up… ratios.  And getting widespread 6-8” will need a good 3/4ths inch QPF.  Not sure if this has it in it. I like widespread 4-6” with maybe some spot 6-8”.

Yeah I feel more like 4-6" but know there will be some 6+ in there. Which sucks for trying to pick out winter storm warnings, but it's also a weekend and the impacts aren't quite as high.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That’s been my hold up… ratios.  And getting widespread 6-8” will need a good 3/4ths inch QPF.  Not sure if this has it in it. I like widespread 4-6” with maybe some spot 6-8”.

I've been on the 9:1 train, but expecting QPF to slightly ramp up a bit. I actually like the 6-8" for up here although maybe it's a little high MHT-south. We'll see.

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15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). 

Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast.

Exactly what I was seeing yesterday and touched upon in my forecast. DGZ is not only super high but it's also pretty warm through much of the cloud layer (warm relative to ice nucleation). Pretty borderline 

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah I feel more like 4-6" but know there will be some 6+ in there. Which sucks for trying to pick out winter storm warnings, but it's also a weekend and the impacts aren't quite as high.

Just close your eyes and throw all of your eggs into the Ukie QPF.

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Exactly what I was seeing yesterday and touched upon in my forecast. DGZ is not only super high but it's also pretty warm through much of the cloud layer (warm relative to ice nucleation). Pretty borderline 

Taking a closer look at this...that warm layer in the mid levels moves in around 00z Sunday (7pm Saturday), at which point I have like 1-2" of snow....then the rest of the snow looks to come on the back end early Sunday AM, which is suspect to me.

Not to mention this is all assuming 10:1 ratios.

I think Kevin maybe right with the 1-3" up here.

 

image.thumb.png.a37bc98bc2feea6e1fd488fe56e2e12c.png

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Exactly what I was seeing yesterday and touched upon in my forecast. DGZ is not only super high but it's also pretty warm through much of the cloud layer (warm relative to ice nucleation). Pretty borderline 

It's going to be a weird one. If we're getting dendrites it's not likely to be from the layer around 500 mb, but maybe in the low level WAA that runs into the -8C air that contains some salt nuclei. I'd probably keep my meaty zone in the 8:1 to 10:1 range. 

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's going to be a weird one. If we're getting dendrites it's not likely to be from the layer around 500 mb, but maybe in the low level WAA that runs into the -8C air that contains some salt nuclei. I'd probably keep my meaty zone in the 8:1 to 10:1 range. 

You have to go sooooo high to get into that -12 to -18 happy zone

Yea, my first call map sucked.

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Have a feeling those water temps are going to punish me for a while. Tough to get decent snows this early without a really good airmass. GEFS/GEPS have been pretty insistent on - temp anomalies after Christmas and through early Jan. That would be key

I wouldn't worry about that :lol:

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