Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Here comes the warming that started yesterday. Ray will get 1-3” .. ORH maybe an inch . Sleet to icing south of 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 It's frigid at 850 but the NAM has that warm nose at 750mb......looks like a scalping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 58 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I feel like BTV and GYX went a little aggressive last night but it’ll be ratio dependent IMO. Splitting hairs as a bunch of 6.2” grids trigger 6-8” maps. I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its worse for the pike region, but actually a bit better by me....gradient tightening, like @MJO812 trying to fit into his uniform He's slim and trim now. Almost ready for 50 shades of grey in the cruiser with the handcuffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: He's slim and trim now. Almost ready for 50 shades of grey in the cruiser with the handcuffs. 50 shades of belly tucking for photo ops 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its worse for the pike region, but actually a bit better by me....gradient tightening, like @MJO812 trying to fit into his uniform I'm starting to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast. That’s been my hold up… ratios. And getting widespread 6-8” will need a good 3/4ths inch QPF. Not sure if this has it in it. I like widespread 4-6” with maybe some spot 6-8”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Odd to see the HRRR so robust... sometime it gets a bit wonky like that It does, But its more the off hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That 12z HRRR is juicy. We Take but that it way to close here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast. A lot of these when i core sample i'm around 7:1 unless its a lot colder aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s been my hold up… ratios. And getting widespread 6-8” will need a good 3/4ths inch QPF. Not sure if this has it in it. I like widespread 4-6” with maybe some spot 6-8”. Yeah I feel more like 4-6" but know there will be some 6+ in there. Which sucks for trying to pick out winter storm warnings, but it's also a weekend and the impacts aren't quite as high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s been my hold up… ratios. And getting widespread 6-8” will need a good 3/4ths inch QPF. Not sure if this has it in it. I like widespread 4-6” with maybe some spot 6-8”. I've been on the 9:1 train, but expecting QPF to slightly ramp up a bit. I actually like the 6-8" for up here although maybe it's a little high MHT-south. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 SNE would love the HRDPS. LOL... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'd agree on the aggressive. We have only rain or snow in the forecast, which is why our totals are so high. The lowest ratio we have is about 6:1, but if it sleets it's going to be much lower than that (can probably halve your snow amount in that window). Biggest red flag I'm seeing right now is that no matter where I click around for a sounding I'm seeing the DGZ around 500 mb. I prefer it around 700 mb because that's where lift tends to be maximized. When the DGZ is up at 500 mb it's a warm atmosphere and lift is poorer and ratios usually stink. I wouldn't be going with climo ratios with this one if it were my forecast. Exactly what I was seeing yesterday and touched upon in my forecast. DGZ is not only super high but it's also pretty warm through much of the cloud layer (warm relative to ice nucleation). Pretty borderline 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah I feel more like 4-6" but know there will be some 6+ in there. Which sucks for trying to pick out winter storm warnings, but it's also a weekend and the impacts aren't quite as high. Just close your eyes and throw all of your eggs into the Ukie QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, Greg said: SNE would love the HRDPS. bump that 10 miles south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah I feel more like 4-6" but know there will be some 6+ in there. Which sucks for trying to pick out winter storm warnings, but it's also a weekend and the impacts aren't quite as high. Those christmas parties though............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: bump that 10 miles south Nowhere to go but continues moving north each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Just close your eyes and throw all of your eggs into the Ukie QPF. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Exactly what I was seeing yesterday and touched upon in my forecast. DGZ is not only super high but it's also pretty warm through much of the cloud layer (warm relative to ice nucleation). Pretty borderline Taking a closer look at this...that warm layer in the mid levels moves in around 00z Sunday (7pm Saturday), at which point I have like 1-2" of snow....then the rest of the snow looks to come on the back end early Sunday AM, which is suspect to me. Not to mention this is all assuming 10:1 ratios. I think Kevin maybe right with the 1-3" up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nowhere to go but continues moving north each run You would love the WRF-ARW2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Exactly what I was seeing yesterday and touched upon in my forecast. DGZ is not only super high but it's also pretty warm through much of the cloud layer (warm relative to ice nucleation). Pretty borderline It's going to be a weird one. If we're getting dendrites it's not likely to be from the layer around 500 mb, but maybe in the low level WAA that runs into the -8C air that contains some salt nuclei. I'd probably keep my meaty zone in the 8:1 to 10:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, OceanStWx said: It's going to be a weird one. If we're getting dendrites it's not likely to be from the layer around 500 mb, but maybe in the low level WAA that runs into the -8C air that contains some salt nuclei. I'd probably keep my meaty zone in the 8:1 to 10:1 range. You have to go sooooo high to get into that -12 to -18 happy zone Yea, my first call map sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Greg said: You would love the WRF-ARW2 Tossed off Has that model ever been right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Greg said: You would love the WRF ARW2 Better shot of Forky becoming a mod-.....oh, wait... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Have a feeling those water temps are going to punish me for a while. Tough to get decent snows this early without a really good airmass. GEFS/GEPS have been pretty insistent on - temp anomalies after Christmas and through early Jan. That would be key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Have a feeling those water temps are going to punish me for a while. Tough to get decent snows this early without a really good airmass. GEFS/GEPS have been pretty insistent on - temp anomalies after Christmas and through early Jan. That would be key I wouldn't worry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: What's Ekster's t-shirt idea? The snow starts sooner but so does the sleet. sleet is always closer than it appears 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tossed off Has that model ever been right? Well that asterisk in the title is key, it includes sleet as 10:1. So basically anything frozen is treated as a front end thump. It may be close on the surface temps, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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