Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21

[HoarfrostHubb]

3-6” for my hood.  Seems pretty much a lock.  4” seems reasonable 

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Where is Phin? Hope he’s ok. Not like him to not be on with snow coming in. 

It’s a pretty damn BS reason he’s not posting.  I need a northern cohort to balance the force.

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

They must be going with a more northerly solution 

It’s weird because I also see this map, made same time as the other one.  Shows a bit more 6”+ in spots down south too.  

[WinterWolf]

55 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I bought mine after the Dec storm last year and still haven't used it.

Why?  Feb 1st last year(‘21) we got 16.5 inches here.  You must have done decent enough in that to use it..no? 

[CoastalWx]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why doesn’t he post? Nervous? 

He’s a very shy young man. 

[greenmtnwx]

58 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It’s a pretty damn BS reason he’s not posting.  I need a northern cohort to balance the force.

Was he really banned?

[Damage In Tolland]

I have a sneaking suspicion this trends warmer at midlevels from here on out and drops only sleet and zr south of 90 . And the the 1-3” gets shoved up by route 2

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a sneaking suspicion this trends warmer at midlevels from here on out and drops only sleet and zr south of 90 . And the the 1-3” gets shoved up by route 2

Don’t let it bother you too much Kev.  It was never a real good look for us south of the pike anyway.
 

We’ll get ours soon. We’ll Let em have this one. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t let it bother you too much Kev.  It was never a real good look for us south of the pike anyway.
 

We’ll get ours soon. We’ll Let em have this one. 

I know how these go . To get snow , we’d need NYC to start as snow . Our goose is cooked 

[weatherwiz]

Finally had some time over the past few hours to really dig into things. This is my thinking for Connecticut. Initially I was actually going to go 2-4'' in the northwest and northeast hills, however, upon starting to dig further there were quite a few things that caught my eye. 

1. It was looking relatively warm within the clouds...had to go well up into the clouds to get temperatures even close to -10C (like 13K) and close to around 8-9K to get below -4C. So I was concerned with sufficient ice nucleation. 

2. The degree of warm-air advection is leading to a pretty high DGZ. Initially, the thump of WAA provides enough upward vertical motion to likely pool sufficient moisture/ice crystals into the DGZ for snow production, but this is going to be brief and I don't think will be enough to get more than an inch or so. Even if the rates were 1'' per hour...this process may not even persist an hour. 

3. Maybe I'm wrong but much of the production here is going to be driven in the llvls and they are kinda meh for good production. 

4. I certainly may be over-analyzing and over-thinking this. 99.99999% pprobable 

 

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro ticked warmer. Took CT out of the advisory snows except maybe far N CT. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a sneaking suspicion this trends warmer at midlevels from here on out and drops only sleet and zr south of 90 . And the the 1-3” gets shoved up by route 2

That's certainly not a stretch and should surprise no one if it happens.  Let's see what tomorrow brings on the models.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That's certainly not a stretch and should surprise no one if it happens.  Let's see what tomorrow brings on the models.

The warm trends have started and my thinking of rain to ORH unfortunately is in play . Ray will end up with the 1-3” modeled here . We’ve got 36 more hours left for more warming . It may end up mainly ice ending as 33 drizzle 

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, IowaStorm05 said:

I remember O6-07. I lived in Westerly! Not only was it under 10 inches…. But half of that fell from a storm in April 2007, which isn’t even winter. 
 

the Valentines Day storm at first was promising to be a blizzard on the coast. This was in the days of those early accuweather discussion videos. I was horrified when about 2-3 days out they revealed that it would be a “mix of rain and snow along the 95 corridor”. This was bad because I knew that meant mostly rain for us. And mostly rain it was, it was pooling water under a thin crust of ice.

The evening it arrived I saw exactly one large snowflake before plain sleet started the onset. 
 

Another winter was equally as bad: 2001-2002. Same place. Same bullshit kind of winter. I guess we got 5 inches that season.

I’d thank you kindly not to be speaking bad about V-Day 2007. That was the biggest snowstorm I’ve seen. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The warm trends have started and my thinking of rain to ORH unfortunately is in play . Ray will end up with the 1-3” modeled here . We’ve got 36 more hours left for more warming . It may end up mainly ice ending as 33 drizzle 

Enough time for this to trend towards 60 with thunder 

[moneypitmike]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro ticked warmer. Took CT out of the advisory snows except maybe far N CT. 

The snowblower gets put away for another day.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro ticked warmer. Took CT out of the advisory snows except maybe far N CT. 

Not a great sign if that’s the end of cooler tr

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not a great sign if that’s the end of cooler tr

They always fluctuate a bit, but I still don’t expect much for you and I. Maybe an inch or two. We’ll see.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not a great sign if that’s the end of cooler tr

I don't think this is a surprise to most. This always was low-chance for most south of NH/VT.  Good look for Jeff and Pit2 though.

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They always fluctuate a bit, but I still don’t expect much for you and I. Maybe an inch or two. We’ll see.

Yes, Euro fluctuates warm 18z Colder 00z, warmer 6z colder 12z

[powderfreak]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro ticked warmer. Took CT out of the advisory snows except maybe far N CT. 

I actually think it makes sense that the higher snowfall zone becomes more acute/shrinks and we see a more narrow zone as this gets zeroed in on (as compared to the ensembles which show a larger geographic area of heavier snowfall).  I still think ratios will not be as high as 10:1 in the higher QPF snow zones... even up north.  I like 8:1 flakes in these mid-level WAA events, taking everything down a notch from the snow maps.

3-7" is my call for CNE/NNE posters above RT 2.  I guess localized areas could see a spot 8" amount in SVT/SNH.  Tossing any 10" amounts.  I like Dendrite's location.

 

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I actually think it makes sense that the higher snowfall zone becomes more acute/shrinks and we see a more narrow zone as this gets zeroed in on (as compared to the ensembles which show a larger geographic area of heavier snowfall).  I still think ratios will not be as high as 10:1 in the higher QPF snow zones... even up north.  I like 8:1 flakes in these mid-level WAA events, taking everything down a notch from the snow maps.

3-7" is my call for most of NNE posters.  I guess localized areas could see a spot 8" amount in SVT/SNH.  Tossing any 10" amounts.

 

Nice look for Lunenburg there.

[weatherwiz]

It also looks like there has been changes to the high pressure is being modeled. I think a few days ago high pressure was sliding more southeast across Canada but now it's looking like it slides more east-east northeast. 

Also, if you look at 500mb (at least on the GFS) and compare heights/winds from 18z run on the 14th to 18z today...there is a slight shift west with the s/w trough axis and some higher heights over our area...this favors a more westward cyclogenesis and thus we're seeing earlier 850 low development and a stronger influx of warmer air and with the HP not where it was modeled previously, we lose the drainage of cold air. 

(I wish I knew how to make a gif)

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I actually think it makes sense that the higher snowfall zone becomes more acute/shrinks and we see a more narrow zone as this gets zeroed in on (as compared to the ensembles which show a larger geographic area of heavier snowfall).  I still think ratios will not be as high as 10:1 in the higher QPF snow zones... even up north.  I like 8:1 flakes in these mid-level WAA events, taking everything down a notch from the snow maps.

3-7" is my call for CNE/NNE posters above RT 2.  I guess localized areas could see a spot 8" amount in SVT/SNH.  Tossing any 10" amounts.  I like Dendrite's location.

 

There could be a mini Jack near the coastal front. It’s possible you get shit flakes just west of the front along with the sleet. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There could be a mini Jack near the coastal front. It’s possible you get shit flakes just west of the front along with the sleet. 

Yeah I don't know the climo down there as much, but the whole set-up just seems to be lower ratio snow when it's warming in the mid-levels and not overly cold to begin with.  The QPF seems juiced but the dynamics don't seem to match those progs.  I don't know, something about this system doesn't scream "take the over."  Sort of like the 10:1 snow map 6" area really is the 4" area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I actually think it makes sense that the higher snowfall zone becomes more acute/shrinks and we see a more narrow zone as this gets zeroed in on (as compared to the ensembles which show a larger geographic area of heavier snowfall).  I still think ratios will not be as high as 10:1 in the higher QPF snow zones... even up north.  I like 8:1 flakes in these mid-level WAA events, taking everything down a notch from the snow maps.

3-7" is my call for CNE/NNE posters above RT 2.  I guess localized areas could see a spot 8" amount in SVT/SNH.  Tossing any 10" amounts.  I like Dendrite's location.

 

Trend continues of tightening gradient....less snow down in CT, but more N of rt 2.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There could be a mini Jack near the coastal front. It’s possible you get shit flakes just west of the front along with the sleet. 

RGEM

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I don't know the climo down there as much, but the whole set-up just seems to be lower ratio snow when it's warming in the mid-levels and not overly cold to begin with.  The QPF seems juiced but the dynamics don't seem to match those progs.  I don't know, something about this system doesn't scream "take the over."  Sort of like the 10:1 snow map 6" area really is the 4" area.

Oh for sure. It starts out decent but the DGZ rises so you’ll eventually lose the good flakes and then it becomes pouring little flakes or needles haha. 
I was referring to the area just west of that sharp line where snow rapidly builds up. Might add an inch or two. It’s not a clash of arctic vs marine airmasses, but it may help. 

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I don't know the climo down there as much, but the whole set-up just seems to be lower ratio snow when it's warming in the mid-levels and not overly cold to begin with.  The QPF seems juiced but the dynamics don't seem to match those progs.  I don't know, something about this system doesn't scream "take the over."  Sort of like the 10:1 snow map 6" area really is the 4" area.

It’s all culminating in little or no snow south of ORH/ I90 . Ice sure 

[IowaStorm05]

44 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I’d thank you kindly not to be speaking bad about V-Day 2007. That was the biggest snowstorm I’ve seen. 

It was big. It was very big. But Westerly RI got wrongfully cheated out of that event by last minute ticks northwest. 
 

I remember it like it was yesterday. And, I was just 22 years old. Which means I was profoundly more springy than I am today. I get that some people might be older than me here… but trust me. 22 is in a class of itself. Once you get well into your 30s you might as well be 55 it’s all middle age. 
 

i live with my mom today still. Multigenerational living is a thing these days. And sometimes she speaks about possibly moving down to Ledyard. We have good reason to but in my heart I’m like nope. Nope nope noooooooope. Of course, I do make sure I use lots of salt so nobody slips or anything but when I eventually give in to moving down there it’s basically saying “I don’t want to see big snowstorms anymore”.