DomNH Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 No doubt in my mind that the ML warmth pushes in faster and further north than modeled. We see this every single time. I like a 3-6'' thump Rt. 2 and north into SNH, then scalping. Wouldn't go for warning level amounts south of MHT or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 53 minutes ago, dryslot said: we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: we take That map is a little aggressive from GYX but not surprising. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The meh train rolls on. Good luck to the north of the pike crew. I will be watching from the cold rain soaked NE corner of Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, DomNH said: No doubt in my mind that the ML warmth pushes in faster and further north than modeled. We see this every single time. I like a 3-6'' thump Rt. 2 and north into SNH, then scalping. Wouldn't go for warning level amounts south of MHT or so. This also doesn't come in like a wall of S+ like some other SWFE...this is probably going to be putrid 1 mile type SN- with garbage flakes for the first 4-6 hours...it really doesn't start getting going until mid-event which by then, the scalping will be pretty far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Greg said: That map is a little aggressive from GYX but not surprising. I feel like BTV and GYX went a little aggressive last night but it’ll be ratio dependent IMO. Splitting hairs as a bunch of 6.2” grids trigger 6-8” maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, DomNH said: No doubt in my mind that the ML warmth pushes in faster and further north than modeled. We see this every single time. I like a 3-6'' thump Rt. 2 and north into SNH, then scalping. Wouldn't go for warning level amounts south of MHT or so. Agree...High bust percentage for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This also doesn't come in like a wall of S+ like some other SWFE...this is probably going to be putrid 1 mile type SN- with garbage flakes for the first 4-6 hours...it really doesn't start getting going until mid-event which by then, the scalping will be pretty far north. Yeah, for sure. Gun to my head I'm guessing this tops out as 3-4'' of sand here before the pellets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yeah, for sure. Gun to my head I'm guessing this tops out as 3-4'' of sand here before the pellets. I agree...all I am expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This also doesn't come in like a wall of S+ like some other SWFE...this is probably going to be putrid 1 mile type SN- with garbage flakes for the first 4-6 hours...it really doesn't start getting going until mid-event which by then, the scalping will be pretty far north. Yea, Paul has done a great job hitting on some of the limitations with this event....echoes this sentiment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: The meh train rolls on. Good luck to the north of the pike crew. I will be watching from the cold rain soaked NE corner of Connecticut. Our chances are coming. We’ll have to fight the block and align it like we’re hanging pictures on a wall… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree...all I am expecting. More further north in Southern ME? Or do we risk scalping too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, tunafish said: More further north in Southern ME? Or do we risk scalping too? I mean, can't rule out some pellets, but you should get several inches up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, Paul has done a great job hitting on some of the limitations with this event....echoes this sentiment. You never want to see the vortmax kind of sheared and tracking through Ottawa and Montreal for a big front end thump....you typically want that more consolidated and closer to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You never want to see the vortmax kind of sheared and tracking through Ottawa and Montreal for a big front end thump....you typically want that more consolidated and closer to us. Where was it in 12/16/07? NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where was it in 12/16/07? NNE? That one was like over OH Valley/W PA and it eventually sliced over New England....it was almost a coastal but further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You never want to see the vortmax kind of sheared and tracking through Ottawa and Montreal for a big front end thump....you typically want that more consolidated and closer to us. The biggest issue especially ORH south is there’s no front end thump. That’s how we get our snow in these. That’s why it’ll start out as sleet / ice. With no antecedent cold.. we don’t get the normal 2-4 hours of heavier snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 You have to love how something as simple as a SWFE has a ton of caveats. Garbage antecedent airmass, weak sauce wall of predication moving in, etc etc. I know it’s only 12/17, but this season has been a total tease so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That one was like over OH Valley/W PA and it eventually sliced over New England....it was almost a coastal but further west. Yea, over NE as opposed to STL RV..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 18 hours ago, ariof said: Climo says 55 and rain for xmas. <grinch emoji> I mean BOS does average 30.9 on the 19th and 30.6 on the 26th, but the 24th averages 33.3. So the Grinch does show up in the long term climate record. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The biggest issue especially ORH south is there’s no front end thump. That’s how we get our snow in these. That’s why it’ll start out as sleet / ice. With no antecedent cold.. we don’t get the normal 2-4 hours of heavier snow . Yeah the precip shield looks pretty cruddy when it's cold enough for snow...and it may never snow south of HFD. You'll prob start as some snow....it would be the type of thing where the cruddy precip shield has you starting as sleet, and then it goes over to snow as the better lift moves in and then back to sleet as the warm layer intrudes. But yeah the dynamics look pretty weak sauce, so I'm not expecting more than a couple inches here...I'd consider a couple inches a win actually. It wouldn't be shocking if its like 0.5-1" or something and then sleet crud for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You have to love how something as simple as a SWFE has a ton of caveats. Garbage antecedent airmass, weak sauce wall of predication moving in, etc etc. I know it’s only 12/17, but this season has been a total tease so far It's a crap pattern. A tease would be striking out in a good pattern. Nothing has looked good inside 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 NAM coming in warm. Torches aloft quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3K is Ray's dream. Put everyone else in the beast of a man shed except him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The 12k NAM erodes the 1030 MB High quicker than the 3k NAM. In other words, the colder air hangs tougher on the 3K NAM and that's why hence, more snow. It will depend on what model is correct about the erosion of the cold air edging in from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s just no front end thump with marginal cold . So you lose that . And midlevel warming always comes in faster than modeled. As long as we get good icing I’ll be content . Just gotta hope Xmas Eve storm holds What's Ekster's t-shirt idea? The snow starts sooner but so does the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 That 12z HRRR is juicy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Odd to see the HRRR so robust... sometime it gets a bit wonky like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Odd to see the HRRR so robust... sometime it gets a bit wonky like that Enjoy 4-6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM coming in warm. Torches aloft quick. Its worse for the pike region, but actually a bit better by me....gradient tightening, like @MJO812 trying to fit into his uniform 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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