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Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21


dryslot
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  On 12/17/2021 at 1:17 AM, CoastalWx said:

Oh for sure. It starts out decent but the DGZ rises so you’ll eventually lose the good flakes and then it becomes pouring little flakes or needles haha. 
I was referring to the area just west of that sharp line where snow rapidly builds up. Might add an inch or two. It’s not a clash of arctic vs marine airmasses, but it may help. 

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I like those brutally cold SWFEs that start out below zero F at the surface up here which actually deliver decent ratios for a good chunk of the event.

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  On 12/17/2021 at 1:23 AM, IowaStorm05 said:

It was big. It was very big. But Westerly RI got wrongfully cheated out of that event by last minute ticks northwest. 
 

I remember it like it was yesterday. And, I was just 22 years old. Which means I was profoundly more springy than I am today. I get that some people might be older than me here… but trust me. 22 is in a class of itself. Once you get well into your 30s you might as well be 55 it’s all middle age. 

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Trust me and hopefully you’ll find out.  You’re young into your early 40s.   Middle age up to 65, young old to 70.  Old thereafter.   Being 75 I feel qualified to make those markers but perhaps the other older guys can comment from their own experiences.

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I would be shocked even if more than 2-4'' fell farther north. I'm just not sure how great snow growth is going to be and I certainly don't see very good snow ratios. Maybe during the thump they are good...10:1...12:1 (12:1 may be a big stretch) but that is going to be super brief. I'm thinking ratios probably more in line of 8:1 or so despite it being sufficiently cold in the lowest 5,000 feet. But where snow production will occur nothing looks impressive (to me anyways)

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  On 12/17/2021 at 12:01 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I have a sneaking suspicion this trends warmer at midlevels from here on out and drops only sleet and zr south of 90 . And the the 1-3” gets shoved up by route 2

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Ew. So far so bad.

you know most of my family is out in Nevada and my cousin just sent me this photo from this morning in Battle Mountain, Nevada. This was taken in a relatively less favorable location for heavy snowfall… 3/5 of the state is just getting pummeled and it ain’t over yet. Much more on the way

Not always but usually, if they’re getting slammed in the far west it is because we are torching.

F618D107-CCD8-4C8E-A3D4-7BB484CF815E.jpeg

2746984E-EE97-4762-A5CA-DD3FF3DCB1B8.jpeg

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  On 12/17/2021 at 1:34 AM, weatherwiz said:

18z GFS for Keene, NH but snow ratios fall more quickly than Urban Meyer

image.png.c102ec0b5b66c881de843ba8d456a9b9.png

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That’s why 8:1 is usually a good starting point for an event where the lift is largely due to mid level warming, unless it’s extreme cold in the antecedent air mass.  Decent 700mb warm front lifts north ahead of the frontal wave… might start as ok ratios but we all know these events like needles and higher density flake types.  

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  On 12/17/2021 at 1:28 AM, weatherwiz said:

I would be shocked even if more than 2-4'' fell farther north. I'm just not sure how great snow growth is going to be and I certainly don't see very good snow ratios. Maybe during the thump they are good...10:1...12:1 (12:1 may be a big stretch) but that is going to be super brief. I'm thinking ratios probably more in line of 8:1 or so despite it being sufficiently cold in the lowest 5,000 feet. But where snow production will occur nothing looks impressive (to me anyways)

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Its not always about snowgrowth...that helps, but that commute nightmare of 12/13/07 was pure baking powder.

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  On 12/17/2021 at 1:27 AM, weathafella said:

Trust me and hopefully you’ll find out.  You’re young into your early 40s.   Middle age up to 65, young old to 70.  Old thereafter.   Being 75 I feel qualified to make those markers but perhaps the other older guys can comment from their own experiences.

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I don't know, Jerry.......I'm only 55 so perhaps my perspective will change. For me though, 40's is young.   I recognize that I'm solidly middle-aged, but It's only been very recently that I find myself fully aware that I'm on the back-9.  I still feel young and knock-on-wood, healthy.  Maybe having a daughter who's only 17 is keeping me feeling youthful.

 

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  On 12/17/2021 at 1:17 AM, CoastalWx said:

Oh for sure. It starts out decent but the DGZ rises so you’ll eventually lose the good flakes and then it becomes pouring little flakes or needles haha. 
I was referring to the area just west of that sharp line where snow rapidly builds up. Might add an inch or two. It’s not a clash of arctic vs marine airmasses, but it may help. 

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Even assuming less than 10-1 ratios...3-6" seems like a good where its mainly snow.

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  On 12/17/2021 at 1:51 AM, powderfreak said:

That’s why 8:1 is usually a good starting point for an event where the lift is largely due to mid level warming, unless it’s extreme cold in the antecedent air mass.  Decent 700mb warm front lifts north ahead of the frontal wave… might start as ok ratios but we all know these events like needles and higher density flake types.  

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And further reasoning as to why the model snow maps are pure garbage. To generate a snowfall forecast by using a constant ratio is trash...and...and...and the only parameters I believe they take into account are QPF and the snowfall ratio (this is why there was the new love for Kuchera b/c it can manipulate snow ratios) but how you can come up with a snowfall forecast without taking into account variable which even supersede QPF/snow ratio is beyond me.  

  On 12/17/2021 at 1:52 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not always about snowgrowth...that helps, but that commute nightmare of 12/13/07 was pure baking powder.

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This is very true...especially when talking about commute impacts. This is where rates are extremely important as well. 

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  On 12/17/2021 at 1:53 AM, moneypitmike said:

I don't know, Jerry.......I'm only 55 so perhaps my perspective will change. For me though, 40's is young.   I recognize that I'm solidly middle-aged, but It's only been very recently that I find myself fully aware that I'm on the back-9.  I still feel young and knock-on-wood, healthy.  Maybe having a daughter who's only 17 is keeping me feeling youthful.

 

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Yeah that pretty much matches my concept.   I still have a 22 year old at 75 and was young for my age but no sugar coating 75 no matter what......but hey-glad to be alive!

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  On 12/17/2021 at 12:57 AM, powderfreak said:

I actually think it makes sense that the higher snowfall zone becomes more acute/shrinks and we see a more narrow zone as this gets zeroed in on (as compared to the ensembles which show a larger geographic area of heavier snowfall).  I still think ratios will not be as high as 10:1 in the higher QPF snow zones... even up north.  I like 8:1 flakes in these mid-level WAA events, taking everything down a notch from the snow maps.

3-7" is my call for CNE/NNE posters above RT 2.  I guess localized areas could see a spot 8" amount in SVT/SNH.  Tossing any 10" amounts.  I like Dendrite's location.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-total_snow_10to1-9944000.thumb.png.591e9c5565cb1ce6c290ac6fbdd51f83.png

 

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Route 2 to Route 2 jack.  

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  On 12/17/2021 at 12:37 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

The warm trends have started and my thinking of rain to ORH unfortunately is in play . Ray will end up with the 1-3” modeled here . We’ve got 36 more hours left for more warming . It may end up mainly ice ending as 33 drizzle 

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Would not be shocked

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