dendrite Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh for sure. It starts out decent but the DGZ rises so you’ll eventually lose the good flakes and then it becomes pouring little flakes or needles haha. I was referring to the area just west of that sharp line where snow rapidly builds up. Might add an inch or two. It’s not a clash of arctic vs marine airmasses, but it may help. I like those brutally cold SWFEs that start out below zero F at the surface up here which actually deliver decent ratios for a good chunk of the event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: It was big. It was very big. But Westerly RI got wrongfully cheated out of that event by last minute ticks northwest. I remember it like it was yesterday. And, I was just 22 years old. Which means I was profoundly more springy than I am today. I get that some people might be older than me here… but trust me. 22 is in a class of itself. Once you get well into your 30s you might as well be 55 it’s all middle age. Trust me and hopefully you’ll find out. You’re young into your early 40s. Middle age up to 65, young old to 70. Old thereafter. Being 75 I feel qualified to make those markers but perhaps the other older guys can comment from their own experiences. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I would be shocked even if more than 2-4'' fell farther north. I'm just not sure how great snow growth is going to be and I certainly don't see very good snow ratios. Maybe during the thump they are good...10:1...12:1 (12:1 may be a big stretch) but that is going to be super brief. I'm thinking ratios probably more in line of 8:1 or so despite it being sufficiently cold in the lowest 5,000 feet. But where snow production will occur nothing looks impressive (to me anyways) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I have a sneaking suspicion this trends warmer at midlevels from here on out and drops only sleet and zr south of 90 . And the the 1-3” gets shoved up by route 2 Ew. So far so bad. you know most of my family is out in Nevada and my cousin just sent me this photo from this morning in Battle Mountain, Nevada. This was taken in a relatively less favorable location for heavy snowfall… 3/5 of the state is just getting pummeled and it ain’t over yet. Much more on the way Not always but usually, if they’re getting slammed in the far west it is because we are torching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 18z GFS for Keene, NH but snow ratios fall more quickly than Urban Meyer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There could be a mini Jack near the coastal front. It’s possible you get shit flakes just west of the front along with the sleet. A mini me! wooT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Pretty warm today and tomorrow.....accumulations will be tough to start considering we'll be trying to cool the warm ground and all. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 18z run was the bet EURO run yet for my area....that is over 6". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: 18z GFS for Keene, NH but snow ratios fall more quickly than Urban Meyer That’s why 8:1 is usually a good starting point for an event where the lift is largely due to mid level warming, unless it’s extreme cold in the antecedent air mass. Decent 700mb warm front lifts north ahead of the frontal wave… might start as ok ratios but we all know these events like needles and higher density flake types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Pretty warm today and tomorrow.....accumulations will be tough to start considering we'll be trying to cool the warm ground and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I would be shocked even if more than 2-4'' fell farther north. I'm just not sure how great snow growth is going to be and I certainly don't see very good snow ratios. Maybe during the thump they are good...10:1...12:1 (12:1 may be a big stretch) but that is going to be super brief. I'm thinking ratios probably more in line of 8:1 or so despite it being sufficiently cold in the lowest 5,000 feet. But where snow production will occur nothing looks impressive (to me anyways) Its not always about snowgrowth...that helps, but that commute nightmare of 12/13/07 was pure baking powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Trust me and hopefully you’ll find out. You’re young into your early 40s. Middle age up to 65, young old to 70. Old thereafter. Being 75 I feel qualified to make those markers but perhaps the other older guys can comment from their own experiences. I don't know, Jerry.......I'm only 55 so perhaps my perspective will change. For me though, 40's is young. I recognize that I'm solidly middle-aged, but It's only been very recently that I find myself fully aware that I'm on the back-9. I still feel young and knock-on-wood, healthy. Maybe having a daughter who's only 17 is keeping me feeling youthful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, ma blizzard said: Never fails with that fool 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: They got to him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh for sure. It starts out decent but the DGZ rises so you’ll eventually lose the good flakes and then it becomes pouring little flakes or needles haha. I was referring to the area just west of that sharp line where snow rapidly builds up. Might add an inch or two. It’s not a clash of arctic vs marine airmasses, but it may help. Even assuming less than 10-1 ratios...3-6" seems like a good where its mainly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even assuming less than 10-1 ratios...3-6" seems like a good where its mainly snow. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s why 8:1 is usually a good starting point for an event where the lift is largely due to mid level warming, unless it’s extreme cold in the antecedent air mass. Decent 700mb warm front lifts north ahead of the frontal wave… might start as ok ratios but we all know these events like needles and higher density flake types. And further reasoning as to why the model snow maps are pure garbage. To generate a snowfall forecast by using a constant ratio is trash...and...and...and the only parameters I believe they take into account are QPF and the snowfall ratio (this is why there was the new love for Kuchera b/c it can manipulate snow ratios) but how you can come up with a snowfall forecast without taking into account variable which even supersede QPF/snow ratio is beyond me. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its not always about snowgrowth...that helps, but that commute nightmare of 12/13/07 was pure baking powder. This is very true...especially when talking about commute impacts. This is where rates are extremely important as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 A lot of people say that we should all get in on some great action come January and February. But guys that’s super far away. How many grueling work shifts must I complete before something big arrives to bring snow down to a Norwich/Warwick/Taunton line and Clobbers my place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Never fails with that fool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I don't know, Jerry.......I'm only 55 so perhaps my perspective will change. For me though, 40's is young. I recognize that I'm solidly middle-aged, but It's only been very recently that I find myself fully aware that I'm on the back-9. I still feel young and knock-on-wood, healthy. Maybe having a daughter who's only 17 is keeping me feeling youthful. Yeah that pretty much matches my concept. I still have a 22 year old at 75 and was young for my age but no sugar coating 75 no matter what......but hey-glad to be alive! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Looks like solid advisory N of RT 2. Man snow too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Thumper for most on the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 3K getting colder as the hours pass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I actually think it makes sense that the higher snowfall zone becomes more acute/shrinks and we see a more narrow zone as this gets zeroed in on (as compared to the ensembles which show a larger geographic area of heavier snowfall). I still think ratios will not be as high as 10:1 in the higher QPF snow zones... even up north. I like 8:1 flakes in these mid-level WAA events, taking everything down a notch from the snow maps. 3-7" is my call for CNE/NNE posters above RT 2. I guess localized areas could see a spot 8" amount in SVT/SNH. Tossing any 10" amounts. I like Dendrite's location. Route 2 to Route 2 jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I’ll take the 3K please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 That was more consolidated, and also tickled colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: I’ll take the 3K please. It’s like the ideal scenario here… 2-4” of snow… to sleet and some freezing rain and ending as a bit of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 both NAM and 3k NAM actually cool the sfc during the early afternoon but pretty solid warm tongue aloft. Looks like a sleet fest south of the Pike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: The warm trends have started and my thinking of rain to ORH unfortunately is in play . Ray will end up with the 1-3” modeled here . We’ve got 36 more hours left for more warming . It may end up mainly ice ending as 33 drizzle Would not be shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Wonder why 3K Is colder than the 12k counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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