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Overunning Mixed Event 12/18-12/19/21


dryslot
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  On 12/16/2021 at 6:12 PM, CT Rain said:

Even Hartford/Tolland may get a nice thump before pl/zr/ra. Maybe a 1-3 kinda deal for N CT and more north of the Pike?

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Agree... Still close call for northern CT with respect to seeing measurable s/ip, but more wiggle room with 12z euro trends.  Overall a pretty messy mix but front-end dump has improved.  

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  On 12/16/2021 at 6:49 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

No one's asking me ... But I'm still okay with front snow spits going over to ZR/PL/R mix in the interior, with snow mainly southern VT/NH ...maybe down to Rt 2 along N Mass interior.  I don't think the front IB is that huge though, because this thing is mechanically not huge.   But ...sometimes things can maximize too ...

There's that, plus ... that local climate group tendency in the verified numbers to result above guidance - ..so

Anyway, I'm calling that a relative win; probably already is, considering 3 days ago ...not many were taking this seriously, either for entertainment or impact aside.  My thing then was that it should be considered, and..it would like be colder - I still feel that way just based a-prior experience.   It's after Dec 15 ... with a new polar boundary S of us.  I realize GW is going to eventually f-us good and proper right out of winter, but it is too early to start assuming those kind of fronts end up back N of our latitude in flat screamin' flows +PP over BTV.

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With any storm, when in doubt, always predict Woodford VT gets the most snow.

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I'm saying that as a 'least' result -

I mean, at this point, I'd hedge the Euro run and put money on that ... ( but tomorrow is a different day at the casino)

But you know, even for the Euro, ..when the flow is compressed and fast like this, the snow vs mix vs rain corridors may also narrow. Small or even nuanced perturbations in where the ballast of the system tracks can make for impact variances along challengingly small forecast distances.  And those small variances are below the model(s) capacity. 

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  On 12/16/2021 at 6:49 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

No one's asking me ... But I'm still okay with front snow spits going over to ZR/PL/R mix in the interior, with snow mainly southern VT/NH ...maybe down to Rt 2 along N Mass interior.  I don't think the front IB is that huge though, because this thing is mechanically not huge.   But ...sometimes things can maximize too ...

There's that, plus ... that local climate group tendency in the verified numbers to result above guidance - ..so

Anyway, I'm calling that a relative win; probably already is, considering 3 days ago ...not many were taking this seriously, either for entertainment or impact aside.  My thing then was that it should be considered, and..it would like be colder - I still feel that way just based a-prior experience.   It's after Dec 15 ... with a new polar boundary S of us.  I realize GW is going to eventually f-us good and proper right out of winter, but it is too early to start assuming those kind of fronts end up back N of our latitude in flat screamin' flows +PP over BTV.

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We appreciate you Jim 

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  On 12/16/2021 at 7:52 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

17 years of data, my lowest seasonal totals were 15.7" in 11/12 and 16.0" in 06/07

Quite hard to go below a foot, but certainly possible in an ultra ratter. Maybe SE CT would have a better shot, or Nantucket

 

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LOL even where you are, your "lowest" is higher than what I had in Boston in 11/12. 

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  On 12/16/2021 at 7:53 PM, CoastalWx said:

LOL even where you are, your "lowest" is higher than what I had in Boston in 11/12. 

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Yeah that would qualify as an ultra ratter, especially for the south shore. I got lucky with a storm that clipped the coast with 75% of my seasonal total. Otherwise, I would've had around 4"

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  On 12/16/2021 at 7:52 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

17 years of data, my lowest seasonal totals were 15.7" in 11/12 and 16.0" in 06/07

Quite hard to go below a foot, but certainly possible in an ultra ratter. Maybe SE CT would have a better shot, or Nantucket

 

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  On 12/16/2021 at 6:57 PM, WinterWolf said:

Just a totally Silly post.  

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So when does he start predicting a Venus climate here?

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