dryslot Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Figure were close enough heading into the 0Z runs to start a thread for the seasons first SWFE system, Goal post still TBD, Looks like snow, Sleet and ice for many, Discuss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 NAM thumps. More consolidated than 18z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM thumps. More consolidated than 18z So the 18z was just a glitch run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Yeah, Nam had a better precip field then 18z, Was 2mb stronger when you compare the two, And a tic or so colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Modest front ended on NAM. GTG in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 NAM was nice near and esp over the border into NH. Not much near and south of pike. Decent burst to start before pellets and ZR inland and rain near coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 not much snow for most of SNE. Hopefully lots of ice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Pingers right up to the coop after a decent thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 ‘Cept, … I wouldn’t consider a flat wave going underneath us with typical frontogen and backing elevated flow signatures/ low securely going south as a SWFE. But that’s just trying to apply some consistency to the usage of the term. I mean it’s happening along a narrow corridor admittedly but it’s still not a primary shooting up at Saint Lawrence and a huge isentropic wall that ends as a weak meso low scooting seaward. This is a frontal wave /New Jersey model hybrid… but weak in the latter sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Still waiting on the seemingly dependable 20 to 30% reduction in overall system integrity that the models typically start correcting at this range. So far so good … but I wouldn’t put it passed this doing that going forward. Heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: ‘Cept, … I wouldn’t consider a flat wave going underneath us with typical frontogen and backing elevated flow signatures/ low securely going south as a SWFE. But that’s just trying to apply some consistency to the usage of the term. I mean it’s happening along a narrow corridor admittedly but it’s still not a primary shooting up at Saint Lawrence and a huge isentropic wall that ends as a weak meso low scooting seaward. This is a frontal wave /New Jersey model hybrid… but weak in the latter sense. The mid level low does go north of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Based on what I have seen on the models, I do not believe the storm will be all snow in my area. However I do think we get a couple of inches before the warm layer moves in, and the snow changes to sleet and then freezing rain. The 500 mb pattern has some blocking, but it hasn’t really established itself yet, and there is still a ridge in the east and trough in the west. A warm layer makes sense, but there is a high pressure to the north and the surface is freezing while the upper levels are above for part of the storm. That makes me believe we are getting an ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 I always understood a SWFE as system in which the mid level lows travel west, and there is a SSW flow aloft, not necessarily the surface low going west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Modest front ended on NAM. GTG in jeopardy. Operative word being modest....I'm not sure why anything is in jeopardy over an inch or two of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Operative word being modest....I'm not sure why anything is in jeopardy over an inch or two of snow... Speaking for myself. I’m still on the process of trying to figure out what happened to me the night of 12/4. I have a 3 hour testing scheduled early Friday morning. Depending on the results I’ll be less cautious or over cautious. An inch or 2 of snow is more difficult to drive on sometimes vs higher amounts. Let’s see what happens and how this event looks Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: Speaking for myself. I’m still on the process of trying to figure out what happened to me the night of 12/4. I have a 3 hour testing scheduled early Friday morning. Depending on the results I’ll be less cautious or over cautious. An inch or 2 of snow is more difficult to drive on sometimes vs higher amounts. Let’s see what happens and how this event looks Friday. Oh, gotcha...understood. Obviously do whatever you feel is in your best interest, Jerry. Health comes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Jesus....GEM and GFS are robust north of the pike...wow. Both hair colder and just a bit more juice. I do expect N trends, but the longer we can hold it off, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Jesus....GEM and GFS are robust north of the pike...wow. Both hair colder and just a bit more juice. I do expect N trends, but the longer we can hold it off, the better. Yeah.....you/Dave/Chris (the Rt 2 corridor) might be able to cash in. I still view this as a Dendrite/Jeff opportunity. Hopefully those of us down south can manage something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 The euro is near warning criteria up here now. Mixing is up to S NH so there’s plenty of wiggle room. That should guarantee a white Christmas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: The euro is near warning criteria up here now. Mixing is up to S NH so there’s plenty of wiggle room. That should guarantee a white Christmas. Yeah may have to go to CH after Christmas haha. Don’t have a good feeling near and south of pike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah may have to go to CH after Christmas haha. Don’t have a good feeling near and south of pike. Yeah I think pike region is mostly toast in this one. Prob an inch or two on the front but that won’t be enough to survive until Xmas unless it’s basically all sleet. Gotta hope for a tick colder on the 12z runs, but my guess is the opposite. They will keep nudging warmer...that’s the typical MO for these systems as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think pike region is mostly toast in this one. Prob an inch or two on the front but that won’t be enough to survive until Xmas unless it’s basically all sleet. Gotta hope for a tick colder on the 12z runs, but my guess is the opposite. They will keep nudging warmer...that’s the typical MO for these systems as we get closer. 6z euro is pretty warm. Too bad the gfs flinched a couple of days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Gfs from 00z/14 looks like 6z euro lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2021 Author Share Posted December 16, 2021 Cap tip to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think pike region is mostly toast in this one. Prob an inch or two on the front but that won’t be enough to survive until Xmas unless it’s basically all sleet. Gotta hope for a tick colder on the 12z runs, but my guess is the opposite. They will keep nudging warmer...that’s the typical MO for these systems as we get closer. Mostly all rainer south of 90. Great news . And lost next week . Scooter holding our throats wide open funneling horseshit straight into bellies on nothing to look forward to . Was hoping for at least an all ice event and staying below freezing . Instead mild rains to at least ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mostly all rainer south of 90. Great news . And lost next week . Scooter holding our throats wide open funneling horseshit straight into bellies on nothing to look forward to Next week had a shot near Christmas and after. Still buzzed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Next week had a shot near Christmas and after. Still buzzed? Just was hoping for some wintry wx this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 That was a real nice Euro run at 6z… juicy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now