thunderbird12 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Anyone know what these streaks on 3km nam are? Never seen them. The streaks are hourly-maximum 2-5 km updraft helicity, basically an indication of where stronger midlevel rotation has tracked over the last hour. The streaks on that plot are unusually long due to insane storm motions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Getting more peeks of sun in my area of nw IN than originally forecast. A glance at the satellite shows this is also true from my area westward into IA. May ramp up instability more than progged if this continues throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, tim123 said: Anyone know what these streaks on 3km nam are? Never seen them. Updraft helicity greater than 75 m2/s2, the same product I was referencing in my previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Socked in with fog/low stratus here in Madison. Vis sat appears to show some thinning/clearing over much of Iowa. Not that insolation is a major factor this time of year but any that does happen will only help the thermos overperform more. Might also allow the synoptic winds to mix down more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Socked in with fog/low stratus here in Madison. Vis sat appears to show some thinning/clearing over much of Iowa. Not that insolation is a major factor this time of year but any that does happen will only help the thermos overperform more. Might also allow the synoptic winds to mix down more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 This should be a high risk day in Iowa from what I am seeing. Atleast for wind gusts alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 One concern I did have about this event was moisture return, but dewpoints are already ~60°F into Iowa. That should only go up further aa the LLJ strengthens and the trough amplifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: CAMs playing catch up. Yea this is becoming a slam dunk tornado outbreak. You won't need supercells for tornadoes today. A QLCS will produce them just fine. If supercells become preferred in the area with the best shear vectors, I could see a 15H being necessary. The moisture overperformed even more than I expected. Looking at dews of 62-63 in the target area when as soon as yesterday, models had 57-58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Apparently, this is also the first Moderate Risk ever in this area in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 107 mph wind gust already in Lamar Colorado 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 107 mph wind gust already in Lamar Colorado84mph in La Junta as well.Those showers are definitely helping with the transfer down to the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Unless there's shallow low clouds I'm not seeing, there's pretty good insolation right now over SE Nebraska and SW Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 So much energy plowing into unusual warmth and dew points. Going to be alot of damage in Iowa today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I wonder how many times SPC has issued a Moderate for locations that have snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I remember one time in Arkansas. Not sure if it was a moderate threat though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Doesn't appear SPC made any substantial changes to probability outlines at 1630. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Doesn't appear SPC made any substantial changes to probability outlines at 1630. Lower MI and far eastern IL were removed from the general thunder area, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Quite possibly the most absurd setup I've ever seen. Wild parameters (Storm motions of 80 mph, LCL's super low, great helicity, lapse rates at 9°) combined with a frickin snowpack 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Lower MI and far eastern IL were removed from the general thunder area, but that's about it. Ah. I was focused on the moderate/enhanced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: Ah. I was focused on the moderate/enhanced. Actually, taking another look, they did expand the Moderate Risk areas a bit further SW to include Omaha and far east central Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Looking at an 1" of rain w/thunder, then temps rapidly drop to 20 bringing 1-3" of snow with all that water freezing up, quickly. Winds up 45 mph. Currently it's 40 with a fog/mist with winds off the Lake slowly increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 The western 2/3rds of Iowa and much of far eastern Nebraska looks to have clear skies now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Much of the snowpack is probably going to get eaten alive fairly quickly. For example, it's currently 45/45 at MSP with fog. Classic snow eater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Much of the snowpack is probably going to get eaten alive fairly quickly. For example, it's currently 45/45 at MSP with fog. Classic snow eater. Make that 48/48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Popping in from another subform, looks pretty nasty today. Someone @ me if there are snownadoes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 I hope this busts because I am super busy later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Interestingly, HRRR soundings show some SBCINH ahead of the line of convection as it crosses the Mississippi this evening...but it doesn't kill it off. A case of frontal forcing/dynamics strong enough? Still, may be a limiting factor on gust intensity and tornado production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: Interestingly, HRRR soundings show some SBCINH ahead of the line of convection as it crosses the Mississippi this evening...but it doesn't kill it off. A case of frontal forcing/dynamics strong enough? Still, may be a limiting factor on gust intensity and tornado production. Anything that limits the gust intensity is welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, DaveNay said: Anything that limits the gust intensity is welcome. As an aside, my employer once had a meteorologist with the surname Waterman. He was super stoked to end up in your town on a storm chase back in June of 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 15, 2021 Share Posted December 15, 2021 Two major wildfires in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles already this morning 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now