guess the date of the next record high temp at our major asos sites

[forkyfork]

12/16

[Roger Smith]

I mentioned in the December thread that Thursday could break the 1971 record of 63F at NYC. Looks like being 75-80 in the central states on Wednesday so that air mass streaming across the northeast will likely remain near 70 F. Will say 71 F for the new record there. Not sure what the records might be at other NYC regional sites but could be like 68F at JFK, 72F at LGA and 73F at EWR (on Thursday). 

According to my NYC data base there have been two record highs set so far in 2021 (March 26, 82F and Dec 11, 66F). There have been five record high minima (two ties) -- two in March, two in June and one in August. And there have been two record low maxima in late May (one a tie). There have been no new record low minima (these are very infrequent in recent years due to the combined effects of urban heat island and climate change). 

December has more warm months in recent decades than most months. I think the monthly record at NYC has been broken five times since 1982. There have been some impressive warm spells in such years as 1982, 1984, 1990, 2013, 2015 and those have bagged about half the daily records. Before the modern era, 1881, 1889, 1891, 1895, 1923 and 1957 were notable for warm spells in December. 

December seems to be in transition from being a genuine winter month to being the tail end of autumn, and this tendency shows up far and wide not just around the northeastern states. Even as far afield as the UK, mild Decembers are becoming more frequent although they did have a notably cold one in 2010 that came within 0.1 C of breaking the 1890 record there. But except for that, December averages have been rising rather steadily in the UK, and also in parts of Canada. 

The same thing is happening at the other end of winter, late February and early March have seen many recent record highs compared to most other parts of the calendar year. May and October on the other hand have a relatively low count of recent record highs. 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I mentioned in the December thread that Thursday could break the 1971 record of 63F at NYC. Looks like being 75-80 in the central states on Wednesday so that air mass streaming across the northeast will likely remain near 70 F. Will say 71 F for the new record there. Not sure what the records might be at other NYC regional sites but could be like 68F at JFK, 72F at LGA and 73F at EWR (on Thursday). 

According to my NYC data base there have been two record highs set so far in 2021 (March 26, 82F and Dec 11, 66F). There have been five record high minima (two ties) -- two in March, two in June and one in August. And there have been two record low maxima in late May (one a tie). There have been no new record low minima (these are very infrequent in recent years due to the combined effects of urban heat island and climate change). 

December has more warm months in recent decades than most months. I think the monthly record at NYC has been broken five times since 1982. There have been some impressive warm spells in such years as 1982, 1984, 1990, 2013, 2015 and those have bagged about half the daily records. Before the modern era, 1881, 1889, 1891, 1895, 1923 and 1957 were notable for warm spells in December. 

December seems to be in transition from being a genuine winter month to being the tail end of autumn, and this tendency shows up far and wide not just around the northeastern states. Even as far afield as the UK, mild Decembers are becoming more frequent although they did have a notably cold one in 2010 that came within 0.1 C of breaking the 1890 record there. But except for that, December averages have been rising rather steadily in the UK, and also in parts of Canada. 

The same thing is happening at the other end of winter, late February and early March have seen many recent record highs compared to most other parts of the calendar year. May and October on the other hand have a relatively low count of recent record highs. 

May was hotter in the 90s than it is now.

Interesting how December 2010 stands out for cold throughout the globe

 

[Roger Smith]

Dec 16 records at all five locations set in 1971 are 65 for JFK, EWR, 64 for ISP, 63 for NYC and 62 for LGA. 

I only have the high minimum record for NYC and that was 48 also in 1971. 

If it stays very mild to midnight then the 17th record high could also be taken down, that one is 62 at NYC set in 2000.