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OBS-NOWCAST: Potential damaging wind (45-60kt) threat NYC subforum mainly 6PM-midnight Saturday Dec 11, 2021


wdrag
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1035 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes quickly offshore tonight. High pressure
builds in on Sunday..

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cold front and line of showers have passed east of NYC metro as
of 0230z. The line has actually weakened over the last hour with
gusts largely below 40 kt. The line appears to be heading into
an environment less conducive to any strengthening. There still
could be a few gusts 40-45 kt right behind the frontal passage
due to increased mixing for a brief time. Model soundings then
indicate wind gusts should largely stay 30-35 kt overall. Have
left the wind advisory in place for now, but downstream obs do
not support it going until 4 am.

 

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While not all the data is in as of this 536 AM Dec 12 writing, our area basically didn't have advisory criteria.  Squall line was less focused than I would have wanted (narrower line with spotty high reflectivity), possibly cut off by the Delmarva line that had developed earlier around 6P.  There is some spotty power outages in  our area, most of it northern and western fringe near I84.  Definitely not the magnitude of a couple of early Dec events. Meanwhile north of I90... good luck with the recovery, especially northern NYS. Ditto our tornado ravaged mid Miss Valley-lower Ohio Valley region. 

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5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

While not all the data is in as of this 536 AM Dec 12 writing, our area basically didn't have advisory criteria.  Squall line was less focused than I would have wanted (narrower line with spotty high reflectivity), possibly cut off by the Delmarva line that had developed earlier around 6P.  There is some spotty power outages in  our area, most of it northern and western fringe near I84.  Definitely not the magnitude of a couple of early Dec events. Meanwhile north of I90... good luck with the recovery, especially northern NYS. Ditto our tornado ravaged mid Miss Valley-lower Ohio Valley region. 

Adding on: I expect that more data verification will have to be added to local storm reports today. I just saw two reports of 50 knots nw LI via Weatherflow, also lower Hudson Valley a number of reports around 40 knots.  Staffing may be a reason why the data has yet to post. I can list the stations if needed. 544A/12

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The following locations experienced 40 knot or greater winds generally near or after squall line passage.

 

HPN 41

POU 40

EWR 41

 

Below: Anemometer heights may not meet NWS criteria

in NJ

Brick

 

IN NY

Bayville 50

Eatons Neck 62

Great Gull 44

Bannerman Inland 41 (Hud Rvr)

Jones Beach 46

Great S Bay 44

Fire Island 40

East Moriches 41`

Shinnecock Light 45

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