Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I understand what LOT is saying about the baroclinic zone/snow pack, but I am not sure in my opinion that the snow pack will have an influence on this particular storm track. For one, with several days of warmer air ahead of the system, we will likely have a dwindling snow pack, and with the models forecasting this system to be strengthening as it moves across the Midwest and eventually occluding, I think ultimately this baby is going to get pulled to the North and eventually Northwest. Yeah the blowtorch from the gulf with all that moist air coming up will erode the snow in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yes if the 18z verified we would not lose much snow here in southern minn either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yes if the 18z verified we would not lose much snow here in southern minn either I'd be skeptical of the 18z it shifted alot faster and with the strength of the Jet/Vort forecasted to come ashore with this system I would argue against a fast solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Totally agree should not take anyone solution with more than a grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah but you know how these La Nina's are down your way JoMo, I'd be happy with any snow you get because La Nina's from what I remember don't cash in for you down there. Had a rooftop dusting this morning. Depends on the storm track, 2007-2008 wasn't bad at all for a La Nina year. Dec 8-10th big ice storm Dec 15th, couple inches of snow Jan 7th and 8th tornado outbreak Jan 31st snowstorm Feb 11th and 12th ice storm Feb 21st, big ice storm March 4th, odd couple of snow bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Depends on the storm track, 2007-2008 wasn't bad at all for a La Nina year. Dec 8-10th big ice storm Dec 15th, couple inches of snow Jan 7th and 8th tornado outbreak Jan 31st snowstorm Feb 11th and 12th ice storm Feb 21st, big ice storm March 4th, odd couple of snow bands. Yeah but that truly was an oddball La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It is about time for the post-Christmas thaw anyway... Just so long as the next couple of systems go S of the GL, and bring the snow back. If the SE ridiging persists, then it's going to be a wet couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah but that truly was an oddball La Nina. yeah but just give me a 6 inch storm and I'm usually satisfied. It melts off in a couple days anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It is about time for the post-Christmas thaw anyway... Just so long as the next couple of systems go S of the GL, and bring the snow back. If the SE ridiging persists, then it's going to be a wet couple of weeks. I just advise everyone to take every threat with a grain of salt, both ways. It is going to be a LONG winter full of surprises, disappointments, and very few events that occur as the models actually predict they would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah Josh I know you are a snow depth guy but I'm more of a snow amount guy, I'd take 3 +12" if they melted 5 days after over having snow on the ground all winter. In other words the 07-08 and 08-09 winters were awesome with big storms all winter even if it didn't stay on the ground for a long time. I'm kinda both... I take the amount and add the total depth, then add the # of days with 2"+ depth, then add # of days with 12"+ depth (only 1 in the entire record for here). Incidentally the best winter was 1929/30, all of which was in the month of January (blows away any other single month). That winter was overall warmer, much drier, and slightly snowier than average, but January was amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I just advise everyone to take every threat with a grain of salt, both ways. It is going to be a LONG winter full of surprises, disappointments, and very few events that occur as the models actually predict they would. If I have learned anything over the last couple of winters, it is that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Last year was the needle in the hay stack here, most of the other years we get missed by 50-100 miles or from dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah but that truly was an oddball La Nina. As is this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 0z GFS is weak and fast. LOW goes right through Central Minny up to INT. Falls. Doesn't look like it gets past 997 mb or so, at least not until after it reaches Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 As is this one. Yeah this is a La Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 0z GFS is weak and fast. LOW goes right through Central Minny up to INT. Falls. Doesn't look like it gets past 997 mb or so, at least not until after it reaches Canada. zips right along there doesn't it? Much different than the 12z, that's for sure... heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 0z GFS is weak and fast. LOW goes right through Central Minny up to INT. Falls. Doesn't look like it gets past 997 mb or so, at least not until after it reaches Canada. I don't buy it, this pattern supports a much stronger system, we know a warm up is coming and when things mix together you get big storms watch the 06z show a stronger storm once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I don't buy it, this pattern supports a much stronger system, we know a warm up is coming and when things mix together you get big storms watch the 06z show a stronger storm once again eh, during the last 2-3 days, the GFS has shown a storm anywhere from as far south as Mexico to as far north as Canada. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 0z GFS is weak and fast. LOW goes right through Central Minny up to INT. Falls. Doesn't look like it gets past 997 mb or so, at least not until after it reaches Canada. Which run you look at? Tonight's 00z takes a low through WI into the UP, while dropping to under 985mb. Edit never mind for some reason I got last nights run of the 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think it's faster because that energy off the northwest coast at 138 is acting as a kicker. The 150, 12z GFS at the same time had this feature much farther to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I think it's faster because that energy off the northwest coast at 138 is acting as a kicker. The 150, 12z GFS at the same time had this feature much farther to the north. Yeah I'd question whether that latter thing will be a bigger system, although it kicks out the first then cuts off in the SW, would be a waste of 2 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This would be par for the course though. The models will probably completely kill the storm off by tomorrow, and then revive it by oh say around Thursday. That's if it's anything like that last 10 systems this season lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Yeah I'd question whether that latter thing will be a bigger system, although it kicks out the first then cuts off in the SW, would be a waste of 2 storms. yeah I got a little excited when I saw that. First storm kicks out, drags a cold front through, second storm drops in and creates a big storm farther south.Then I saw it just cuts off and craps out. ah well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 26, 2010 Author Share Posted December 26, 2010 DVN has my idea what would likely go on with this storm THE MODELS WILL BE PLAYING CATCH UP TO WHAT EVENTUALLY HAPPENS AND WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK WITH THE OVERALL SYSTEM.NO ONE MODEL SOLUTION OR MODEL WILL HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS STORM SYSTEM AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 2-4 DAYS BEFORE THERE IS ANY CONVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. DPROG/DT TRENDS WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER ARRIVAL AND A SLIGHT TR...END TO THE SOUTH. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AS THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY THAT THIS WILL BE A HIGH IMPACT EVENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GFS will throw out more solutions in the next 140+ hrs more then Favre has thrown interceptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 0z EURO has a 1004 MB LOW in the UP at hr 150. 12z EURO had a sub 990 MB LOW in the UP at hr 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 0z EURO has a 1004 MB LOW in the UP at hr 150. 12z EURO had a sub 990 MB LOW in the UP at hr 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 GEM is sub 990 but the LOW is in E. SD area. Models will probably trend towards a stronger storm in a few days. Still 5+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well the Day 7 500 MB Euro map is a lot different. Maybe because it hangs energy back over the SW, but it also shows more energy diving down instead of a cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well the Day 7 500 MB Euro map is a lot different. Maybe because it hangs energy back over the SW, but it also shows more energy diving down instead of a cutoff. Wait the Euro is holding back energy? I'm floored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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