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New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd

northpittweather

By northpittweather,
in Central/Western States

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

Posted
Posted

La Crosse

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO DRIVE ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT AROUND

THE NEW YEAR/S HOLIDAY...AND IT COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON

THE LOCAL AREA. CURRENT SOLUTIONS WOULD PULL SO MUCH WARM AIR AHEAD

OF THE SYSTEM THAT MUCH OF WHAT WOULD FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA

WOULD BE RAIN...WITH HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO IA/MN. CAN/T

RULE OUT ANY FREEZING PCPN AT THIS MOMENT...AND THERE ARE EVEN HINTS

THAT SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. AN UGLY MIX LEADING UP...AND INTO THE

NEW YEAR. OF COURSE...ITS ENTIRELY TOO EARLY TO PULL ANY DETAILS OUT

OF THE FORECAST AT THIS MOMENT. HOWEVER...ANY OF THE POTENTIAL

SCENARIOS WILL IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION...AND POSSIBLY SOME

SIGNIFICANT HYDRO CONCERNS. IF ITS MOSTLY RAIN...THE WARM

RAIN ON THE DEEP SNOW PACK WILL RESULT IN A LARGE RUNOFF INTO FROZEN

RIVERS/STREAMS...LEADING TO ICE JAMS AND FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL

CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED. OF COURSE...IF THE STORM MOVES A BIT MORE

EAST...ITS HEAVY SNOW FOR US. SO...A VERY CLOSE EYE WILL BE KEPT ON

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

I was getting the 00z run at first but then it changed to 12z. I paused at 132 hours and there are some interesting analogs on there, some of which featured severe weather fairly far north.

Yeah it just updated for me also, that is pretty impressive this far out. Normally when MARS picks up on stuff this far out my interest is peaked.

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TimChgo9

TimChgo9

Posted
Posted

Interesting pattern.

Not sure if I am ready to jump on the current track. Too far out. I'll give it to Wed, because I think the forecast storm track will probably change between now and then.

Now, given the current track so far NW of us, and the fact that the large amt of moisture etc, will result in rain/thunderstorms, what happens if this storm tracks S of the GL? What is the snow potential, given the moisture that there will be to work with?

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tornadotony

tornadotony

Posted
Posted

Interesting pattern.

Not sure if I am ready to jump on the current track. Too far out. I'll give it to Wed, because I think the forecast storm track will probably change between now and then.

Now, given the current track so far NW of us, and the fact that the large amt of moisture etc, will result in rain/thunderstorms, what happens if this storm tracks S of the GL? What is the snow potential, given the moisture that there will be to work with?

With the kind of ridging progged, this storm will NOT go S of the GL...if anything, it will shift even farther NW...the ridge would have to verify significantly weaker than what is progged.

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Moneyman

Moneyman

Posted
Posted

If anyone deserves snow, it's probably bow. I got a 10 inch storm here about 50-60 miles NW of him (he got like 1 inch I believe). Racine is getting clocked tonight (MKE was supposed to get 3-4 inches) and he probably has 1 inch of snow on the ground right now. He's gotten screwed so many times this winter. Hell, even the southern states has more snow then him.

Neb. has gotten rocked the past few winters I believe anyways.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

If anyone deserves snow, it's probably bow. I got a 10 inch storm here about 50-60 miles NW of him (he got like 1 inch I believe). Racine is getting clocked tonight (MKE was supposed to get 3-4 inches) and he probably has 1 inch of snow on the ground right now. He's gotten screwed so many times this winter. Hell, even the southern states has more snow then him.

Neb. has gotten rocked the past few winters I believe anyways.

Yeah, even as bad as this winter has been we did eek out a 6" snow here.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Yeah, even as bad as this winter has been we did eek out a 6" snow here.

To me, that just sounds wrong lol. "As bad as this winter has been...". We have not gotten the insane snow that MN has gotten, and we also have seen one too many snows hit areas to our south. However, December has had average snowfall and way below average temps. IMO, that is not bad at all. Heres an interesting statistic, Detroit averages 49 days per winter with 1"+ of snow on the ground. Of those 49 days, 30 average 3"+ depth, and 15 average 5"+ depth. With the 5" snow depth at DTW today, this already marks day #13 with snow depth of 5"+ at the 7am observation time. So, should the depth stay at 5" tomorrow and Monday (which it likely will), we will already hit our seasonal average 5" snowcover days by December 27th.

And I do agree, MKE needs some snow. I do, however, think that this *could* potentially be the beginning of a real Nina pattern. Meaning, we may not have a non-budging snowpack for weeks at a stretch like we have now, but more crazy temps and storms should have us all see a doozy of a snowstorm by winters end.

BTW, back on topic, IF the 18z GFS verified (just saying that phrase is wrong on so many levels), we would only peak around 40F, way less than the 50s the last several runs showed, which would likely not erode the entire snowpack.

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TheWeatherPimp

TheWeatherPimp

Posted
Posted

I understand what LOT is saying about the baroclinic zone/snow pack, but I am not sure in my opinion that the snow pack will have an influence on this particular storm track. For one, with several days of warmer air ahead of the system, we will likely have a dwindling snow pack, and with the models forecasting this system to be strengthening as it moves across the Midwest and eventually occluding, I think ultimately this baby is going to get pulled to the North and eventually Northwest.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

To me, that just sounds wrong lol. "As bad as this winter has been...". We have not gotten the insane snow that MN has gotten, and we also have seen one too many snows hit areas to our south. However, December has had average snowfall and way below average temps. IMO, that is not bad at all. Heres an interesting statistic, Detroit averages 49 days per winter with 1"+ of snow on the ground. Of those 49 days, 30 average 3"+ depth, and 15 average 5"+ depth. With the 5" snow depth at DTW today, this already marks day #13 with snow depth of 5"+ at the 7am observation time. So, should the depth stay at 5" tomorrow and Monday (which it likely will), we will already hit our seasonal average 5" snowcover days by December 27th.

And I do agree, MKE needs some snow. I do, however, think that this *could* potentially be the beginning of a real Nina pattern. Meaning, we may not have a non-budging snowpack for weeks at a stretch like we have now, but more crazy temps and storms should have us all see a doozy of a snowstorm by winters end.

BTW, back on topic, IF the 18z GFS verified (just saying that phrase is wrong on so many levels), we would only peak around 40F, way less than the 50s the last several runs showed, which would likely not erode the entire snowpack.

Yeah Josh I know you are a snow depth guy but I'm more of a snow amount guy, I'd take 3 +12" if they melted 5 days after over having snow on the ground all winter. In other words the 07-08 and 08-09 winters were awesome with big storms all winter even if it didn't stay on the ground for a long time.

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