IWXwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z GFS still has the storm, with the same intensity and approx. the same track. It is a little slower, maybe due to it depicting the trough digging deeper into Old Mexico. Any way you look at it, it's gonna throw copious amounts of moisture up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z GFS a tad west of the 0z run with the sfc low still not occluding by the time it gets time IA pulling up alot of warm air/moisture. This has big potential for severe if things play out right, but still along way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, +12C at 850 on Jan 2. The front is still well back in MI so there could even be sunshine. Assuming insolation occurs and the snowpack has melted, I'm thinking mid 50s next Sunday are possible. As much as I love winter, warmth like that'll feel good after a long absence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z GFS a tad west of the 0z run with the sfc low still not occluding by the time it gets time IA pulling up alot of warm air/moisture. This has big potential for severe if things play out right, but still along way off. I am just concerned because the last 9 model runs have been fairly consistent If you live in the Ohio Valley on New Years Eve and New Years Day, watch out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looks all rain up this way. If we didn't have so much snow on the ground i'd be a little more excited for some warmth. Its going to be a sloppy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This thing is amazingly consistent for being so far out. Of course the last system was that way too, and things ended up changing. Every storm is different though. I just wonder how far north a surface warm front will be able to go with such a deep snow pack in place. It's certainly going to slow it down, but just how much is the key. I can see the warm front getting hung up somewhere over the deep snow pack, and creating a widespread corridor of freezing rain which could result in full on ice storm conditions somewhere. I would also anticipate an earlier occlusion due to the slow progress of the warm front. The low-level jet will be very strong though, so I guess it's possible the warm front will make it as far north as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS wind fields are off the charts. 850 mb jet of 80 kts and in excess of 75 kts down to the 900 mb level in eastern Indiana/western Ohio at 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If the models keep showing this thing tracking like it has been, you might only have to drive to the Ohio River area, maybe Beau's neck of the woods. I don't know if I've ever seen SPC be bullish on a long range winter severe threat north of the Ohio River. It's hard enough at the 2-3 day time range lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chagrin Falls Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The GFS wind fields are off the charts. 850 mb jet of 80 kts and in excess of 75 kts down to the 900 mb level in eastern Indiana/western Ohio at 192 hours. I noticed that as well but on the 00Z ECMWF operational, the 850 hPa winds over the Great Lakes was about 55-65 knots post cold frontal passage. Seems quite a bit off as the pressure gradient doesn't support that and there isn't an extreme amount of cold air behind the front (things go back to slightly below climo, it would appear). The ensembles are a lot less, with about 40 kt winds at 850 hPa. At this point I don't see any severe weather potential (aside from synoptically driven wind gusts) in the upper Mid-West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am just concerned because the last 9 model runs have been fairly consistent If you live in the Ohio Valley on New Years Eve and New Years Day, watch out!!! better start a severe weather thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z Euro is interesting in the sense that it tracks though central IA and then just about due N/NNE well into Canada, where it's sub 980mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, +12C at 850 on Jan 2. The front is still well back in MI so there could even be sunshine. Assuming insolation occurs and the snowpack has melted, I'm thinking mid 50s next Sunday are possible. As much as I love winter, warmth like that'll feel good after a long absence. I agree, but I assume there will be fog issues, limiting high temps.. Generally speaking, all the way up to Detroit upper 50s are not our of the question, even low to mid 60.. I Guess this is our January THaw early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't know if I've ever seen SPC be bullish on a long range winter severe threat north of the Ohio River. It's hard enough at the 2-3 day time range lol. This is storm is just really impressive!! Remember it's weather and anything could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 better start a severe weather thread lol seriously i think somebody needs to start one this evening SPC is bullish on the threat, and were talking about a threat of an outbreak north of the ohio valley in the middle of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Since this storm is so far out in time I wouldn't at all be surprised if the models are focusing too much on the lead wave. We've seen this happen many times. If a second and stronger shortwave arrives later on in the evolution, then we could see a stronger, more southerly developing low that would track further east. Obviously none of the models show this now, but since this thing is so far in the future I wouldn't be surprised if something like that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I noticed that as well but on the 00Z ECMWF operational, the 850 hPa winds over the Great Lakes was about 55-65 knots post cold frontal passage. Seems quite a bit off as the pressure gradient doesn't support that and there isn't an extreme amount of cold air behind the front (things go back to slightly below climo, it would appear). The ensembles are a lot less, with about 40 kt winds at 850 hPa. At this point I don't see any severe weather potential (aside from synoptically driven wind gusts) in the upper Mid-West. Agree, in the Upper Midwest in Wisconsin, Northern Michigan, and areas like that You go into the Ohio Valley (Ohio,Indiana, Southern Michigan, Kentucky, Western Pennsylvania), based on what the models show, an impressive outbreak is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 One thing I like looking at for severe potential when something is this far out is the mid level lapse rates. Right now they're not progged to be that bad for a system with these types of mid level wind trajectories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just my two cents but I think there is going to be an area of significant ice accumulations from this storm. My guess would be somewhere in MN/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Bye bye snow cover.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Since this storm is so far out in time I wouldn't at all be surprised if the models are focusing too much on the lead wave. We've seen this happen many times. If a second and stronger shortwave arrives later on in the evolution, then we could see a stronger, more southerly developing low that would track further east. Obviously none of the models show this now, but since this thing is so far in the future I wouldn't be surprised if something like that happens. Hope so, at 500, the 12z GFS operational is the farthest NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 seriously i think somebody needs to start one this evening SPC is bullish on the threat, and were talking about a threat of an outbreak north of the ohio valley in the middle of the winter How many times do we have to say not yet... give it a few days and calm down and relax and read the discussions on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 seriously i think somebody needs to start one this evening SPC is bullish on the threat, and were talking about a threat of an outbreak north of the ohio valley in the middle of the winter SPC is not being bullish on the threat. If they were, there would be a big risk area outlined already. They also haven't mentioned the first thing about an outbreak ANYWHERE, much less north of the Ohio River. YOU are the one talking about that. Seriously dude, what kind of grass are you smoking??? As far as the threat itself, like the "Octobomb", this appears to be a forced linear event to me. The earlier this occludes, the less quality moisture and instability there will be to work with from the Ohio Valley southward, but with at least marginally adequate thermos and the strength of the dynamics, I'd expect the potential for at least significant wind damage and isolated tornadoes over a rather large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 LOT SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OPENING UP WARM MOIST GULF FLOW INTO THE REGION. DEEP UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO DIG OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS LOW PRESSURE CENTER UP INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HONING IN ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE KEY TO THE END OF WEEK FORECAST...BUT SEEMS TO BE A GENERAL CONCENSUS IN THE MODELS FOR NOW THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA KEEPING US IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILDCARD MAY BE HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE EXISTING SNOWPACK AFFECTING WHERE STRONGEST BAROCLINICITY SETS UP...POSSIBLY FAVORING A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. BUT SHOULD MODELS PAN OUT...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIG WARMUP IN STORE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY...AS WELL AS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 How many times do we have to say not yet... give it a few days and calm down and relax and read the discussions on it. Whatever!!!!!!, i'll give it till tomorrow or monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Whatever!!!!!!, i'll give it till tomorrow or monday You will give it till tomorrow or monday..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 SPC is not being bullish on the threat. If they were, there would be a big risk area outlined already. They also haven't mentioned the first thing about an outbreak ANYWHERE, much less north of the Ohio River. YOU are the one talking about that. Seriously dude, what kind of grass are you smoking??? As far as the threat itself, like the "Octobomb", this appears to be a forced linear event to me. The earlier this occludes, the less quality moisture and instability there will be to work with from the Ohio Valley southward, but with at least marginally adequate thermos and the strength of the dynamics, I'd expect the potential for at least significant wind damage and isolated tornadoes over a rather large area. , I still think the GFS is still a little bit too slow, expect a threat on Friday into Saturday just to mention Greg Forbes had a live update talking about Christmas Tornadoes, and he mentioned at the end of the the live segment, he mentioned a active severe pattern and a quite rare one may be forming for the Midwest and South during New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Whatever!!!!!!, i'll give it till tomorrow or monday We all see the potential but it's still way out there. If we actually get a system like the GFS is showing, then yeah, there could be some problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Whatever!!!!!!, i'll give it till tomorrow or monday Dude calm down this is a week out, lets give it time before hastily making a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As for the storm itself I think the biggest thing that would be a concern for me would be if/when it occludes beyond that it certainly looks impressive right now. Also as mentioned in the January thread I think the first wave could have some ice issues with it too, which could be its own thread, but I'd give that a day or so before breaking that away from this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 SPC MARS maxes out 500mb progs for Thursday in OK and TX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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