northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dude, we are 7-8 days away, calm down a little. No reason to get all hyper already. Just watch it and relax. When we get within a few days, we can break the threads up if necessary. I am calm, it just like the warm, i am saying by sunday or tomorrow night we might need to split the threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thought the Euro was a lot quicker. Didn't 12z EURO have the storm in the hr 160 timeframe? But I would agree. I would wait until we are within 100 hours to make the thread. Give it 3 days or so. Models flip like Brett Favre changing his mind on whether he wants to play or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am calm, it just like the warm, i am saying by sunday or tomorrow night we might need to split the threads Again, when we are 3 or 4 days out (Tuesday or Wednesday), we'll split it off if we need to. No need to before then. Just relax and enjoy the discussion. No need for doom and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thought the Euro was a lot quicker. Didn't 12z EURO have the storm in the hr 160 timeframe? But I would agree. I would wait until we are within 100 hours to make the thread. Give it 3 days or so. Models flip like Brett Favre changing his mind on whether he wants to play or not. Brett Favre, and that is a funny comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thought the Euro was a lot quicker. Didn't 12z EURO have the storm in the hr 160 timeframe? But I would agree. I would wait until we are within 100 hours to make the thread. Give it 3 days or so. Models flip like Brett Favre changing his mind on whether he wants to play or not. Ya the euro was about 24hrs quicker I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Again, when we are 3 or 4 days out (Tuesday or Wednesday), we'll split it off if we need to. No need to before then. Just relax and enjoy the discussion. No need for doom and gloom. or to jinx it. I vote Pitt can't start the new thread lol no offense or anything but lets be honest, alot of us are superstitious when it comes to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 or to jinx it. I vote Pitt can't start the new thread lol no offense or anything but lets be honest, alot of us are superstitious when it comes to this I don't mind, i wanted somebody else start the thread anyways when it's needed I am perfectly cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z EURO had a 983 MB LOW over N. WI at 192. 0z GFS at 204 had a sub 985 LOW in N. WI. Pretty good consistency between those two tbh at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z EURO had a 983 MB LOW over N. WI at 192. 0z GFS at 204 had a sub 985 LOW in N. WI. Pretty good consistency between those two tbh at this timeframe. Other then being 24 hours apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow, another storm to watch, damn, I'm never gonna be able to get away from the computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You can't expect all the models to be exact 6-7 days away. Hell, the models have no clue about the east coast system right now and it is within 48 hours. GFS gives them 1-2 feet with 50-60 mph winds while the EURO hardly gives anyone anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z EURO had a 983 MB LOW over N. WI at 192. 0z GFS at 204 had a sub 985 LOW in N. WI. Pretty good consistency between those two tbh at this timeframe. Except how it gets there is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Except how it gets there is completely different. agree but all 3 major global models are showing the storm still also it's a LaNina which supports these type of strong lake cutting storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TruePatriot Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Northwest trend, book it. Low will go through southern Minnesota to Duluth giving everyone rain except the Dakotas and Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The 0z GGEM cuts through the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 off topic, but i was researching severe events from all over the world and i found a outbreak in south america with 395 possible tornadoes with all of them ranging from EF0 to EF3, mostly brief tornadoes April 20th 1993 was the date Wow, i can't believe i found this, i am just bored now, can't relax when you have a bunch of drunks partying here like it's new years already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 00z Euro is sub 980 mb in the UP of Michigan at 192 hours. System really bombs between 180-192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 agree but all 3 major global models are showing the storm still also it's a LaNina which supports these type of strong lake cutting storms yep, but it's a question of when it cuts. The GGEM is much farther NW. Tonights Euro has gone farther SE than it's 12z run, The GFS went SE from it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think im due for a big one after only seeing 3 inches this month and a quarter inch of snow out of a forecasted 3-4 Thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EURO trended towards the GFS in terms of the speed of the system. 12z EURO: Hr 192: Sub 980 MB LOW UP 0z EURO: Hr 192: Sub 980 MB LOW UP How it got there is different, but it ended up in nearly the same spot. Pretty much the same strength also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The fact that the GFS already paints 55F dewpoints up here on New Year's Day 192h out...just is incredible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Surprised to see the map with "Potential Too Low" on today's SPC Day 4-8 Outlook map. "Predictability too low" would seem to make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It looks like rain here....and a whole crap load of it... I really wonder how the snow pack will hold. 6Z GFS shows 40F+ temps even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think we need to be careful with this storm, especially if that High to the SE isn't as strong, and the models haven't figured the snow field into the mix (ice storm possibilities). This is gonna be one of those crazy storms we are gonna track, that will make a big difference as the Pac Energy shows it's face. If there is massive rains over the massive Midwestern Snowpack, expect flooding. I'm definitely not poo-pooing this thing 6-7 before it arrives. Then again, if it comes in weaker, that would change things entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Surprised to see the map with "Potential Too Low" on today's SPC Day 4-8 Outlook map. "Predictability too low" would seem to make more sense. SPC is likely waiting a day or so to issue a risk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Surprised to see the map with "Potential Too Low" on today's SPC Day 4-8 Outlook map. "Predictability too low" would seem to make more sense. From the text, the map should say "predictability too low." THEREAFTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST AROUND DAY 7/NEW YEARS EVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE...AND A SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 From the text, the map should say "predictability too low." THEREAFTER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST AROUND DAY 7/NEW YEARS EVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE...AND A SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED. I'd like a chase, but not that friggen far...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd like a chase, but not that friggen far...lol If the models keep showing this thing tracking like it has been, you might only have to drive to the Ohio River area, maybe Beau's neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z GFS has above freezing temps around here for 72 hours, with 50s surging into southeast Iowa and northern Illinois for 24 hours. It couldn't really get much worse than that. Bah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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