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New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd


northpittweather

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Storms of this magnitude and scale are often picked up early on by modeling, and this is exactly what we're seeing, with pretty much universal agreement among the "big 3" global models that the storm will exist. You might remember that the Octobomb was also picked up on over a week in advance.

Track is still up in the air, but places like Cent/S. Mo through south cen. IL on south could see a major severe outbreak in this type of setup, provided the snowpack is sufficiently melted to allow destabilization in the low levels. Otherwise, it will be a bunch of fog with elevated storms in those areas.

Fetch from the GoM is huge, and taps some rich subtropical/tropical moisture. This is a key feature to keep an eye on. Also, time of day will be key, as will cloud cover, and this time of year, it's very hard to get a setup that will allow much sunshine in the warm sector.

I'm not even going to speculate who gets the big snows, because it's futile to try at this point, especially with some solutions showing a "roll-over" ridge to the north of the storm, which would alter the scenario drastically.

I agree with you for the most part....areas south of a Northeastern Missouri to KPIA to KPAH line south definitely look good. Surprisingly even at this range the GFS is showing 750 sbcape just south and southwest of KSTL. Sunshine would obviously help, but based on the dynamics I think severe would occur regardless. The thing that is even more impressive is how the dynamics rally ramp up and overlap for central and southern Illinois through Indiana into southern and southwestern Lower Michigan. If the system can occlude later and allow the SFC and 850 theata ridges to become better aligned with the dynamics Saturday could be even bigger.

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I agree with you for the most part....areas south of a Northeastern Missouri to KPIA to KPAH line south definitely look good. Surprisingly even at this range the GFS is showing 750 sbcape just south and southwest of KSTL. Sunshine would obviously help, but based on the dynamics I think severe would occur regardless. The thing that is even more impressive is how the dynamics rally ramp up and overlap for central and southern Illinois through Indiana into southern and southwestern Lower Michigan. If the system can occlude later and allow the SFC and 850 theata ridges to become better aligned with the dynamics Saturday could be even bigger.

From Illinois to Western Pennsylvania in the Ohio Valley could be a really dangerous situation, 750 sbcape in your region is really impressive for being the middle of winter, snow melt could actually increase moisture return and instability

I am getting ready to pull the trigger for a severe weather thread

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I agree with you for the most part....areas south of a Northeastern Missouri to KPIA to KPAH line south definitely look good. Surprisingly even at this range the GFS is showing 750 sbcape just south and southwest of KSTL. Sunshine would obviously help, but based on the dynamics I think severe would occur regardless. The thing that is even more impressive is how the dynamics rally ramp up and overlap for central and southern Illinois through Indiana into southern and southwestern Lower Michigan. If the system can occlude later and allow the SFC and 850 theata ridges to become better aligned with the dynamics Saturday could be even bigger.

Exactly right on that account. If occlusion takes place later then even more potential exists. That timing will have to be adjusted as we draw closer but that will be a good battle shaping up next week into the weekend. If we cannot have snow by all means let get the severe weather to crank.

Josh

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I would like to point out that one of the few times the GFS wiped the floor with the Euro this year was the Octobomb. It had it at 240 hours. Does this mean anything? Not really. Just making an observation. Most WFO's seem to be leaning towards the GFS solution...

The Euro has definitely had its off moments including with this storm along the East Coast.

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5 Runs in a row of a same type of system, after the 00z GFS Run comes in, i think it would be time to pull the trigger for a severe threat thread

Possible Historic Events get threads started in advance, and this is happening on New Years so the threat of life and damage could be extreme

you really gotta calm down in the hype department..this thing is still 180hrs away. alittle early to be saying threat of life and damage could be extreme...

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hehe, yes

------- (you)

-------

-------

-------

------- (extreme)

Many things can still change, small scale stuff is too far out to pinpoint also.

exactly, he was looking at the op run of the GFS. if you look at the ensembles, some are showing a much weaker system. still a week away.

I dont even know if we started the thread for 4/22-4/24 this year a week ahead of time.

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hehe, yes

------- (you)

-------

-------

-------

------- (extreme)

Many things can still change, small scale stuff is too far out to pinpoint also.

what ever, what ever, let's give it till Sunday then, and i know many things will change

but 2 things we know is

1. a big storm system is coming

2. a big warm up and warm sector

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0z GFS has a sub 985 low in N. WI at hr 204.

MN/W. WI gets crushed. So does Iowa. It just explodes once it gets to IL it looks like. Was sub 1000 mb low in IL then 6-9 hrs later it's down in the 980's.

ya watching this run come in and with the trof digging further south and the sfc low not occluding that fast you knew it would come in further east but still too warm here.

takes the sfc low right over RFD, not that the track matters right now 192hrs out.

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Those are some nasty wind fields. If even a minimal amount of instability could be realized in the OV, I imagine there would be a severe weather risk. 500 mb jet max of 130 knots.

Agree, remember it doesn't take much in the winter months to get severe if things come together, if cape goes above 500 j/kg you would need to be concerned about strong tornadoes

But it's about 180 hours out

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Those are some nasty wind fields. If even a minimal amount of instability could be realized in the OV, I imagine there would be a severe weather risk. 500 mb jet max of 130 knots.

Even without we may still have "dynamically driven" tornadoes as was the case in the "Octobomb". Some of the warnings occured where there was no cape.

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Fred and I talking about the severe potential with this right now...both agree this COULD be huge if things play out. 0z GFS already has upper 50 dews nosing into MO, southern IL at 150hrs with a wide warm sector.

with now 60 dews into that same area 6hrs after with 65 dews into central AR.

WOW

I think it is time to start a thread for the severe weather potential

I think we should leave this thread for the rain and heavy snow threats because those seem like additional major threats

This storm seems like a big time powerful system

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Fred and I talking about the severe potential with this right now...both agree this COULD be huge if things play out. 0z GFS already has upper 50 dews nosing into MO, southern IL at 150hrs with a wide warm sector.

with now 60 dews into that same area 6hrs after with 65 dews into central AR.

WOW

One thing is for sure...this setup would obliterate the snow pack here. About a million more model runs to go but this could be interesting. Signals are pretty solid for a big low so then it would come down to the finer details.

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One thing is for sure...this setup would obliterate the snow pack here. About a million more model runs to go but this could be interesting. Signals are pretty solid for a big low so then it would come down to the finer details.

So you agree, you think it's time to split the threads out and make a snow/rain thread and a severe thread

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