patrick7032 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Storms of this magnitude and scale are often picked up early on by modeling, and this is exactly what we're seeing, with pretty much universal agreement among the "big 3" global models that the storm will exist. You might remember that the Octobomb was also picked up on over a week in advance. Track is still up in the air, but places like Cent/S. Mo through south cen. IL on south could see a major severe outbreak in this type of setup, provided the snowpack is sufficiently melted to allow destabilization in the low levels. Otherwise, it will be a bunch of fog with elevated storms in those areas. Fetch from the GoM is huge, and taps some rich subtropical/tropical moisture. This is a key feature to keep an eye on. Also, time of day will be key, as will cloud cover, and this time of year, it's very hard to get a setup that will allow much sunshine in the warm sector. I'm not even going to speculate who gets the big snows, because it's futile to try at this point, especially with some solutions showing a "roll-over" ridge to the north of the storm, which would alter the scenario drastically. I agree with you for the most part....areas south of a Northeastern Missouri to KPIA to KPAH line south definitely look good. Surprisingly even at this range the GFS is showing 750 sbcape just south and southwest of KSTL. Sunshine would obviously help, but based on the dynamics I think severe would occur regardless. The thing that is even more impressive is how the dynamics rally ramp up and overlap for central and southern Illinois through Indiana into southern and southwestern Lower Michigan. If the system can occlude later and allow the SFC and 850 theata ridges to become better aligned with the dynamics Saturday could be even bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 I agree with you for the most part....areas south of a Northeastern Missouri to KPIA to KPAH line south definitely look good. Surprisingly even at this range the GFS is showing 750 sbcape just south and southwest of KSTL. Sunshine would obviously help, but based on the dynamics I think severe would occur regardless. The thing that is even more impressive is how the dynamics rally ramp up and overlap for central and southern Illinois through Indiana into southern and southwestern Lower Michigan. If the system can occlude later and allow the SFC and 850 theata ridges to become better aligned with the dynamics Saturday could be even bigger. From Illinois to Western Pennsylvania in the Ohio Valley could be a really dangerous situation, 750 sbcape in your region is really impressive for being the middle of winter, snow melt could actually increase moisture return and instability I am getting ready to pull the trigger for a severe weather thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I agree with you for the most part....areas south of a Northeastern Missouri to KPIA to KPAH line south definitely look good. Surprisingly even at this range the GFS is showing 750 sbcape just south and southwest of KSTL. Sunshine would obviously help, but based on the dynamics I think severe would occur regardless. The thing that is even more impressive is how the dynamics rally ramp up and overlap for central and southern Illinois through Indiana into southern and southwestern Lower Michigan. If the system can occlude later and allow the SFC and 850 theata ridges to become better aligned with the dynamics Saturday could be even bigger. Exactly right on that account. If occlusion takes place later then even more potential exists. That timing will have to be adjusted as we draw closer but that will be a good battle shaping up next week into the weekend. If we cannot have snow by all means let get the severe weather to crank. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I would like to point out that one of the few times the GFS wiped the floor with the Euro this year was the Octobomb. It had it at 240 hours. Does this mean anything? Not really. Just making an observation. Most WFO's seem to be leaning towards the GFS solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would like to point out that one of the few times the GFS wiped the floor with the Euro this year was the Octobomb. It had it at 240 hours. Does this mean anything? Not really. Just making an observation. Most WFO's seem to be leaning towards the GFS solution... The Euro has definitely had its off moments including with this storm along the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 5 Runs in a row of a same type of system, after the 00z GFS Run comes in, i think it would be time to pull the trigger for a severe threat thread Possible Historic Events get threads started in advance, and this is happening on New Years so the threat of life and damage could be extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 5 Runs in a row of a same type of system, after the 00z GFS Run comes in, i think it would be time to pull the trigger for a severe threat thread Possible Historic Events get threads started in advance, and this is happening on New Years so the threat of life and damage could be extreme you really gotta calm down in the hype department..this thing is still 180hrs away. alittle early to be saying threat of life and damage could be extreme... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 you really gotta calm down in the hype department..this thing is still 180hrs away. alittle early to be saying threat of life and damage could be extreme... hehe, yes ------- (you) ------- ------- ------- ------- (extreme) Many things can still change, small scale stuff is too far out to pinpoint also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hehe, yes ------- (you) ------- ------- ------- ------- (extreme) Many things can still change, small scale stuff is too far out to pinpoint also. exactly, he was looking at the op run of the GFS. if you look at the ensembles, some are showing a much weaker system. still a week away. I dont even know if we started the thread for 4/22-4/24 this year a week ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 hehe, yes ------- (you) ------- ------- ------- ------- (extreme) Many things can still change, small scale stuff is too far out to pinpoint also. what ever, what ever, let's give it till Sunday then, and i know many things will change but 2 things we know is 1. a big storm system is coming 2. a big warm up and warm sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm hoping for neither rain or snow I really would rather just skip this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 0z GFS has a sub 985 low in N. WI at hr 204. MN/W. WI gets crushed. So does Iowa. It just explodes once it gets to IL it looks like. Was sub 1000 mb low in IL then 6-9 hrs later it's down in the 980's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm hoping for neither rain or snow I really would rather just skip this storm. I want a nice warm up, cold gets old over a long period of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm not too excited about placement at this point, since it's so far out. The fact that run after run all of the mid range models show something very powerful is very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 0z GFS has a sub 985 low in N. WI at hr 204. MN/W. WI gets crushed. So does Iowa. It just explodes once it gets to IL it looks like. Was sub 1000 mb low in IL then 6-9 hrs later it's down in the 980's. ya watching this run come in and with the trof digging further south and the sfc low not occluding that fast you knew it would come in further east but still too warm here. takes the sfc low right over RFD, not that the track matters right now 192hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hr 192 on the 00z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yup, I'm happy as long as it shows a big storm somewhere in the next few days. By Tuesday we should start getting a better handle on the track etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the severe potential would come pretty far north with this run as its still not occluded as its in northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hr 192 on the 00z GFS = Those are some nasty wind fields. If even a minimal amount of instability could be realized in the OV, I imagine there would be a severe weather risk. 500 mb jet max of 130 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Those are some nasty wind fields. If even a minimal amount of instability could be realized in the OV, I imagine there would be a severe weather risk. 500 mb jet max of 130 knots. Agree, remember it doesn't take much in the winter months to get severe if things come together, if cape goes above 500 j/kg you would need to be concerned about strong tornadoes But it's about 180 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Those are some nasty wind fields. If even a minimal amount of instability could be realized in the OV, I imagine there would be a severe weather risk. 500 mb jet max of 130 knots. Even without we may still have "dynamically driven" tornadoes as was the case in the "Octobomb". Some of the warnings occured where there was no cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Fred and I talking about the severe potential with this right now...both agree this COULD be huge if things play out. 0z GFS already has upper 50 dews nosing into MO, southern IL at 150hrs with a wide warm sector. with now 60 dews into that same area 6hrs after with 65 dews into central AR. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Fred and I talking about the severe potential with this right now...both agree this COULD be huge if things play out. 0z GFS already has upper 50 dews nosing into MO, southern IL at 150hrs with a wide warm sector. with now 60 dews into that same area 6hrs after with 65 dews into central AR. WOW I think it is time to start a thread for the severe weather potential I think we should leave this thread for the rain and heavy snow threats because those seem like additional major threats This storm seems like a big time powerful system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Fred and I talking about the severe potential with this right now...both agree this COULD be huge if things play out. 0z GFS already has upper 50 dews nosing into MO, southern IL at 150hrs with a wide warm sector. with now 60 dews into that same area 6hrs after with 65 dews into central AR. WOW One thing is for sure...this setup would obliterate the snow pack here. About a million more model runs to go but this could be interesting. Signals are pretty solid for a big low so then it would come down to the finer details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 One thing is for sure...this setup would obliterate the snow pack here. About a million more model runs to go but this could be interesting. Signals are pretty solid for a big low so then it would come down to the finer details. So you agree, you think it's time to split the threads out and make a snow/rain thread and a severe thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So you agree, you think it's time to split the threads out and make a snow/rain thread and a severe thread I wouldn't yet but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wouldn't yet but that's just me. Lets wait a day or so, ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pitt I'd calm down As for the models I did a bit of quick catchup on today's runs, things looking pretty solid so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So you agree, you think it's time to split the threads out and make a snow/rain thread and a severe thread Dude, we are 7-8 days away, calm down a little. No reason to get all hyper already. Just watch it and relax. When we get within a few days, we can break the threads up if necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pitt I'd calm down As for the models I did a bit of quick catchup on today's runs, things looking pretty solid so far. Amen. Were still 180hrs away! no need for a thread yet, give it till monday and then we'll see. It was just one run of the op GFS. we still have plenty of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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