baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 MPX busted with their 2-4" call here today...dry slotted with temp still at 35...hopefully tomorrows storm will refresh the slushy snowpack around here. Wow, even yesterday it was obvious there would be no snow, just rain and perhaps a little sleet. It could have been a sharp gradient that made it into your forecast with the grid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I-29 south of Grand Forks heading into Fargo closed due to the blizzard, huge pile up on I-94. Getting ugly out there. http://www.startribu...ArksUUUycaEacyU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 If anyone wants a good example of how the potential energy in a strong low level baroclinic zone is worked, check the storm over the Northern Plains now. Pretty intense gradient and strong low level response with a low amplitude broad shortwave. Now, remember the superbombs the GFS had 192 hours out? Look at the second storm coming in 36 hours and the size of the upper disturbance. This first wave is a "sacrificial lamb", and if this storm came in one chunk, it would have been an epic storm since the amount of potential energy being converted by this first "sacrificial lamb" shortwave is significant. If that second wave came first, this would be a major winter storm, and if it all came in one chunk, historic. Non-linear growth doesn't add up in the 2 pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 ended with 0.36" rain and now 41F with continued melting. transplant's absolutely right, though. whatever is on the ground after tonight is going to become a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I've been surprised how fast our snow has melted. I thought we'd still have a few inches after tomorrow, but that won't happen. After the last snowstorm we had 10.5 inches of snow on the ground, but now my yard is down to about 2 inches and open areas are becoming bare. At this point I hope the rest of the dirty snow will melt so we can start over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 MPX coverage area snow report & webcam near location 0500 PM SNOW DONNELLY 45.69N 96.01W 12/30/2010 M5.0 INCH STEVENS MN TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 LOL at the mini ball of 45+ dbz convection that blowing up around the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 LOL at the mini ball of 45+ dbz convection that blowing up around the Twin Cities. crazy. there are 55-60dbz returns in there. heavy rain now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 crazy. there are 55-60dbz returns in there. heavy rain now here. The NAM has some pretty beefy low level mass convergence near the inversion in response to the low amplitude wave. As typical with low amplitude waves over a moist baro zone, mid level height falls are rapid and induce cooling in the mid levels. Soundings suggest a layer of conditional instability above the inversion. Looks like the convection is lining up along the periphery of the low level mass response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I have some 50 dbz returns over my area now. Pouring out. Some snow mixing in as well. 0.48" of rain in 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 I have some 50 dbz returns over my area now. Pouring out. Some snow mixing in as well. 0.48" of rain in 5 hours. The high returns up north in Duluth are just melting and enhanced returns. Still some impressive rates up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 crazy. there are 55-60dbz returns in there. heavy rain now here. My brother is in Minnetonka and he reported hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Impressive WV display for what seems like a run-of-the-mill low amplitude shortwave. Goes to show how amped that low level baro zone is. The models grossly underestimated how much the upper wave would amplify. This first wave is stealing some of the thunder from the second wave. Look at how poorly the GFS simulated the amplification of the S/W as it interacted with the low level baro zone. Oz GFS 24 hours into the forecast: Compare to 18Z today. Huge difference, the the much greater amplification of this wave is wreaking havoc in ND with the blizzard. The second storm was supposed to be the biggie, but now this first one is dominating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The strength and amplification of this first S/W is also altering the position of the low level baro zone, and as a result, the second wave is going to come in shifted E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The strength and amplification of this first S/W is also altering the position of the low level baro zone, and as a result, the second wave is going to come in shifted E. What model do you feel handled this first wave the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 What model do you feel handled this first wave the best? None. This thing is over-achieving mightily. Surface pressure is down to 985 hpa, lowest I ever saw last night by any model was 993. Chalk it up to non-linear development. Amazing difference, and it is having huge impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Surface pressure down to 985 per latest surface analysis. Talk about fail. 0Z guidance last night had 993-995 hpa. Massive difference, and the raging blizzard in ND is a result. http://www.hpc.ncep....rgnamsfcwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The strength and amplification of this first S/W is also altering the position of the low level baro zone, and as a result, the second wave is going to come in shifted E. so the 2nd wave probably won't be as strong as the current one? NWS was saying the 2nd was the strongest of the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 so the 2nd wave probably won't be as strong as the current one? NWS was saying the 2nd was the strongest of the 2 That was the way it looked until this thing over-amplified big time. I didn't foresee this, I don't think anyone did, even with that amped low level baro zone. Everything is spiraling and feeding back to the system. Looks like 985 was its peak, still 5-6 hpa lower than the guidance suggested at 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 artic front finally went through here at 6:50pm and temp has dropped 11 degrees since...down to 24 with light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Some flooding going on in the streets. Too much ice is backing things up. 0.63" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 1st storm is moving on, 2nd one is going to coat an area a bit farther east, where's the 3rd storm to give me snow? Oh, stalled off California Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 My outlook from earlier today on the winter event as well as some contributions from the other team members as well. Enjoy. Note: May need to zoom in on the picture as I tried to make it as big as possible with a screen cap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 My outlook from earlier today on the winter event as well as some contributions from the other team members as well. Enjoy. Note: May need to zoom in on the picture as I tried to make it as big as possible with a screen cap Who is this forecast for? Also, I think the blizzard warnings are for the event now, not the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUtwister Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Who is this forecast for? Also, I think the blizzard warnings are for the event now, not the second. Blizzard Watches have been posted for the Fri-Sat event across the northern Plains. Most of the current warnings are for the on-going event. Only blizzard warnings for Friday at this time are across WY/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Who is this forecast for? Also, I think the blizzard warnings are for the event now, not the second. The midwest, and I will have to re-examine, for the second event there are some areas with blizzard warnings, so I'll get back to you. Never really forecasted much for this area, did a lot of work on severe weather in the southern plains but am expanding out for a couple of reasons. Correction: There are blizzard warnings for this storm in the warned areas, with blizzard watches in effect for the second storm. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. I asked another forecaster about it and he reported the warnings for the second storm. Will correct in the 1AM STA. Once again thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Blizzard Watches have been posted for the Fri-Sat event across the northern Plains. Most of the current warnings are for the on-going event. Only blizzard warnings for Friday at this time are across WY/NE. Yep, I was just looking through the warnings and saw this. As stated will correct in the 1AM STA outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 The midwest, and I will have to re-examine, for the second event there are some areas with blizzard warnings, so I'll get back to you. Never really forecasted much for this area, did a lot of work on severe weather in the southern plains but am expanding out for a couple of reasons. Correction: There are blizzard warnings for this storm in the warned areas, with blizzard watches in effect for the second storm. Thanks for bringing that to my attention. I asked another forecaster about it and he reported the warnings for the second storm. Will correct in the 1AM STA. Once again thanks. Yeah no problem. The blizzard warning went up late too, it was not expected to be this intense today. This first storm is over-achieving big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yeah no problem. The blizzard warning went up late too, it was not expected to be this intense today. This first storm is over-achieving big time. Definitely, I was checking with some of our affiliate guys out there and they said it was really surprising to them what this first system was bringing. Interesting developments out there and makes me wonder what is going to occur out there with this second storm and its chances of overperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUtwister Posted December 31, 2010 Share Posted December 31, 2010 Yep, I was just looking through the warnings and saw this. As stated will correct in the 1AM STA outlook. No problem - it's tough to keep track of the headlines when there are multiple ones in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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