snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 DSM-MSP-DLH get destroyed this run. DESTROYED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 DSM-MSP-DLH get destroyed this run. DESTROYED. This gets REALLY close to me as well, maybe just to my west..... Not to mention the GFS has a bug with the last update that effects QPF @ 192. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5501-gfs-qpf-bug-found-at-hour-192/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 I know the cape is low but that means there is going to be moist flow with this storm coming around new years eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This gets REALLY close to me as well, maybe just to my west..... Not to mention the GFS has a bug with the last update that effects QPF @ 192. http://www.americanw...nd-at-hour-192/ Yeah, I've noticed that. The QPF fields at 192 get a convective look to them. Wrt to the system, considering MSP was well in the rain 24 hours ago, we've got things moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Cuts through Chicagoland. Goes negatively tilted and brings up an impressive amount of WAA with 850s of 10 up to northern OH...followed by post-frontal snows, which are highly suspect because post frontal snow barely ever works out the way you want it to. Congrats MSP, WI, IA, Northern MI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 btw, is this thread servicing both the winter as well as severe wx discussion? I ask because usually we have separate threads for each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 DSM-MSP-DLH get destroyed this run. DESTROYED. Well, everyone wanted the block gone. So per this I will go from a nice snowpack while watching MSP get buried, to a snow-melting thaw and watching MSP getting buried? No thank you, I will keep the block. Jokes aside, this will change 100 times by storm-time. But in the end, Minneapolis hasnt had a good winter in, what, a decade, which was topped off with no snow after mid-Feb last winter? Detroit, Milwaukee, etc have been KILLING them with snowfall totals. So they are due. This is their year for sure, maybe even historic. It will snow no matter what the setup. I still will like to see what good this breaking down of the block will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I just saved some of the 0z GFS image at 192 hours...I dont think I have ever seen that much qpf in a 6hr period...this is just insane. HOLY SH*T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Obviously way to far out to go into detail, location, etc. but this set-up screams ice storm potential for somebody in the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I just saved some of the 0z GFS image at 192 hours...I dont think I have ever seen that much qpf in a 6hr period...this is just insane. HOLY SH*T A little bit of convective feedback going on but still impressive. Massive storm/occlusion. Will be quite interesting to watch no matter what side of the storm you are on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I just saved some of the 0z GFS image at 192 hours...I dont think I have ever seen that much qpf in a 6hr period...this is just insane. HOLY SH*T I think it's actually 12hrs accumulation in that range. Still very impressive. Even though this is still sort of in the fantasy range, there has been a storm showing up around this time for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 gulf looks to be open too for severe wether so perhps this thread can be the "general" storm thread then we can split into winter, severe, and maybe flooding threads(decent mount of h20 in snowpack over N IL, the first super clipper soaked in lot of rain with the next system) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well we at least got three weeks' cold weather. Might as well warm up but good, get rid of all those ugly dirty snowbanks. Be nice to go outside without a heavy winter coat for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think it's actually 12hrs accumulation in that range. Still very impressive. Even though this is still sort of in the fantasy range, there has been a storm showing up around this time for several days. Oh ya duh lol my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Obviously way to far out to go into detail, location, etc. but this set-up screams ice storm potential for somebody in the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This set up screams severe potential also, this seems like another January 7th and 8th 2008 system Just think on New Years Eve this year people in the Ohio Valley could be under svr thunderstorm or tornado watches while last year areas were in a winter storm warning i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well this looks like a classic powerful spring type storm system ???? New Years Tornado Outbreak ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Give it a day or so, and then somebody start a severe weather threat thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Anyone know what the GGEM has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 This was an interesting run of the GFS tonight shows initial wave of what would probably be freezing rain, and then as temps warm up it melts away the snow and then a severe potential. Earlier someone mentioned how you would melt the snow up this way, and the way this run shows it being a prolonged event with a big bang at the end would be the exact way you would melt the snow up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Anyone know what the GGEM has? 00Z GGEM cuts through SD/MN http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/00zPrecipGLB.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 SPC long range severe discussion DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010 VALID 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... BY START OF PERIOD...STG SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER ERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. AS TROUGH MOVES EWD OFF ATLC COAST THROUGH DAY-5/27TH-28TH...RELATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR GULF OF MEXICO AND PENETRATE MUCH OF NRN/WRN CARIBBEAN...LEAVING BEHIND AIR MASS TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR SVR THREAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BY DAY-8/30TH-31ST...OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...ECMWF AND ABOUT HALF OF MREF MEMBERS INDICATE RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHICH WOULD INDUCE STG HIGH-PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS AND BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA IN CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...ANY AOA 30% LEVEL OF SVR THREAT APPEARS IMPROBABLE UNTIL AFTER END OF PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 12/23/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 SPC long range severe discussion DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010 VALID 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... BY START OF PERIOD...STG SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER ERN CONUS...ANCHORED BY PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS. AS TROUGH MOVES EWD OFF ATLC COAST THROUGH DAY-5/27TH-28TH...RELATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR GULF OF MEXICO AND PENETRATE MUCH OF NRN/WRN CARIBBEAN...LEAVING BEHIND AIR MASS TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR SVR THREAT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. BY DAY-8/30TH-31ST...OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL...ECMWF AND ABOUT HALF OF MREF MEMBERS INDICATE RATHER DEEP SYNOPTIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WHICH WOULD INDUCE STG HIGH-PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS AND BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA IN CENTRAL CONUS. HOWEVER...ANY AOA 30% LEVEL OF SVR THREAT APPEARS IMPROBABLE UNTIL AFTER END OF PERIOD. ..EDWARDS.. 12/23/2010 That means around new years, that's when the day 8 ends right when the decent threat starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I just saved some of the 0z GFS image at 192 hours...I dont think I have ever seen that much qpf in a 6hr period...this is just insane. HOLY SH*T WTF!!? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow is all I can say to the 0Z GFS and it interpretation of that long wave digging through the plains and tanking out and undergoing rapid cyclogenesis. Ridiculous. The amount of kinetic energy in a storm that massive would make most nor'easters seem pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 LOL. 850 heights and winds. Seriously, that thing is monstrous. Would make the October record breaking bomb over MN look tiny, and that storm was seriously huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wow is all I can say to the 0Z GFS and it interpretation of that long wave digging through the plains and tanking out and undergoing rapid cyclogenesis. Ridiculous. The amount of kinetic energy in a storm that massive would make most nor'easters seem pitiful. That is somewhat true, thing is the models have showing this for awhile now, so you have to think the chances of a midwest blizzard with a tornado event on the east side of the system This looks like an early spring type of system in the middle of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I just saved some of the 0z GFS image at 192 hours...I dont think I have ever seen that much qpf in a 6hr period...this is just insane. HOLY SH*T Absolute beast. That would be a Happy New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The thing to watch this thing per GFS is progged to have a 250mb Jet max of 200+ KT in about 120 hours, that is a screaming Jet max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The thing to watch this thing per GFS is progged to have a 250mb Jet max of 200+ KT in about 120 hours, that is a screaming Jet max. Not only that, but the absolute sheer size of the jet stream. There is a massive amount of energy. Similar to the beast jet the October Bomb was hauling. It was just huge. Absolutely spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 EURO has a low in NW WI at hr 174. Hardly any QPF with it though. It gets it down sub 985. Much faster then the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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