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New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd


northpittweather

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Looking at the EURO, it looks REALLY weak compared to earlier runs. Looks like 1000 mb low maybe across E. MN/W.WI

The storm that brought down the Metrodome roof and caused a blizzard across our area was also a 1000 mb low while it was in the area if I remember right (I could be mistaken though)...but yes, it does appear to be weaker then it did with earlier runs

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Looking forward to some lovin after seeing storms miss us to the east mostly with the exception of one, the one that gave us 7 inches the day before I left for vacation in WI. Nice snowpack all throughout the entire trip too, peaking around eastern MN and western WI, covering all the state up to the lake michigan shoreline in Ozaukee county. :) As long as it's enough to cover the grass blades in town I'm golden, the next big jump would be to cover most of the dirt and left over corn stalks on the farmland, which I'm happy to say was mostly the case through most of the trip. A sea of beautiful white as far as the eye can see. Though that will probably be gone in eastern WI where my father's at.. only about 5-6 inches there when I visited, that will melt away. Where else on net or in real life can I go and post, all excited about a snowstorm, and not get strange or disgusted looks from the people around me. lol

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We are looking at the next week being quiet, and then after that, who knows. The GFS doesn't show much in the long range, but, then, that will change. A week ago, when I was looking at what I thought would be snow for NYE/NYD the GFS showed at least three systems between the 1st and about the 9th, or something. Last I looked (sorry, I don't look daily) it has lost the additional lows, but that doesn't mean they won't return. GFS has us cold and dry for the next few days, but, that will change. I think we will see one good snow storm in the GL/OV in January and again in February, and I have a funny feeling March isn't going to be all that calm either.

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the canadian doesn't look bad for the west metro either. shows a heckuva temp gradient across ecMN; seMN and wWI are drier and warm as expected.

anyone have the euro precip maps?

Eh, they have shifted E, but it still isn't very impressive for snow. Would start out as a bunch of sleet then change to low ratio snow grain type stuff.

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Looking at the EURO, it looks REALLY weak compared to earlier runs. Looks like 1000 mb low maybe across E. MN/W.WI

I don't think it is much weaker. A farther W track under this configuration does likely mean it intensifies more with a very slight negative tilt, and indeed the strength of the ejecting shortwave over the plains will play a huge part in track changes since there is some weak feedback processes going on here. I think what is really happening is, while it is a tad weaker, it is also pushing through faster as one would expect a slightly weaker solution to do. In other words, you are not seeing the max intensity of the low as it pushes through MN due to the 24 hr chunks. I am sure someone with the ECM paid subscription can confirm, but I would bet it is down close to the GFS which is 995 or so.

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MPX expanded watch a couple counties to the east.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

305 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010

THE SECOND ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE FREEZING RAIN BY

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE

DURING THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF SNOW

BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE

SNOW...BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND

DRIFTING SNOW. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT

FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY.THE

WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM LITTLE FALLS...TO

LITCHFIELD TO OLIVIA.

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what are everyones thoughts with the trend to the east with this second low, do you see it farther east yet or about as far east as one can expect. I know this is a complete weenie post, but when your renting snowmobiles for a weekend in northern wisconsin i am praying for a little snow fri night and sat to maybe salvage something out of the weekend staying in the mercer wi area. thanks for any information you all provide.

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what are everyones thoughts with the trend to the east with this second low, do you see it farther east yet or about as far east as one can expect. I know this is a complete weenie post, but when your renting snowmobiles for a weekend in northern wisconsin i am praying for a little snow fri night and sat to maybe salvage something out of the weekend staying in the mercer wi area. thanks for any information you all provide.

Hate to say it, but right now Mercer is still in the screwzone. The eastward shift in the comma head/precip shield was due to a slight weakening trend with the ejecting S/W into the plains. Weak positive feedback that the models suggested earlier won;t come into play as much and as a result, the system won't "hook" NNW owing to less positive feedback over the moist baroclinic zone in the plains. Same thing happens with Nor'easters, but of course under far more extreme circumstances. That said, the thermals are mostly the same and and low level baroclinic zone is still in the same general area. For that area, the warm sector holds until this storm occludes, and unfortunately, in these type of systems, the dry slot plows through fast near the occlusion as the surface low briefly stalls. It looks like a sleet/possibly freezing rain mess with a shot at some grainy snow at the very end, but that won't amount to much if anything. Snow unfortunately does not look good at this juncture sad.gif

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what are everyones thoughts with the trend to the east with this second low, do you see it farther east yet or about as far east as one can expect. I know this is a complete weenie post, but when your renting snowmobiles for a weekend in northern wisconsin i am praying for a little snow fri night and sat to maybe salvage something out of the weekend staying in the mercer wi area. thanks for any information you all provide.

Got up to 41 here in Hancock, MI today. I can imagine what the trails look like with everyone in town riding them. But hopefully this coming weekend and into next week we will get some good lake snow to repair the damage. I haven't even got my sled out yet. I ended up getting bad bronchitis that I have been dealing with for the last two weeks.

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Drizzle here... Took a run and overheated... Not use to this tropical warmth :)

it's very eastern Wisconsin-like here right now. Feels good! Fortunately not really warm enough to affect the snowpack with cloudcover and fog. Normal temps will be back Friday though. Right now, looks like a bullseye hit here cancelling my new years plans with relatives.. anything more then 4 or so inches drifts the gravel road to her place closed for the weekend, and gotta work sat night. I'm excited!

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