prinsburg_wx Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Euro appears to have shifted east. ukie has also and gives most of MN a good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 ukie has also and gives most of MN a good storm We might get some good snows after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 ukie has also and gives most of MN a good storm 6hr precip on the ukmet at 60hr: not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 ukie has also and gives most of MN a good storm In other news, the earth is round. Minnesota is the jackpot this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 ukie has also and gives most of MN a good storm the canadian doesn't look bad for the west metro either. shows a heckuva temp gradient across ecMN; seMN and wWI are drier and warm as expected. anyone have the euro precip maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Looking at the EURO, it looks REALLY weak compared to earlier runs. Looks like 1000 mb low maybe across E. MN/W.WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MajorLeagueStorms Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Looking at the EURO, it looks REALLY weak compared to earlier runs. Looks like 1000 mb low maybe across E. MN/W.WI The storm that brought down the Metrodome roof and caused a blizzard across our area was also a 1000 mb low while it was in the area if I remember right (I could be mistaken though)...but yes, it does appear to be weaker then it did with earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Looking forward to some lovin after seeing storms miss us to the east mostly with the exception of one, the one that gave us 7 inches the day before I left for vacation in WI. Nice snowpack all throughout the entire trip too, peaking around eastern MN and western WI, covering all the state up to the lake michigan shoreline in Ozaukee county. As long as it's enough to cover the grass blades in town I'm golden, the next big jump would be to cover most of the dirt and left over corn stalks on the farmland, which I'm happy to say was mostly the case through most of the trip. A sea of beautiful white as far as the eye can see. Though that will probably be gone in eastern WI where my father's at.. only about 5-6 inches there when I visited, that will melt away. Where else on net or in real life can I go and post, all excited about a snowstorm, and not get strange or disgusted looks from the people around me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Think were going to make a run at 55-57 here with dew points not far from those numbers, will be busting out the shorts for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 We are looking at the next week being quiet, and then after that, who knows. The GFS doesn't show much in the long range, but, then, that will change. A week ago, when I was looking at what I thought would be snow for NYE/NYD the GFS showed at least three systems between the 1st and about the 9th, or something. Last I looked (sorry, I don't look daily) it has lost the additional lows, but that doesn't mean they won't return. GFS has us cold and dry for the next few days, but, that will change. I think we will see one good snow storm in the GL/OV in January and again in February, and I have a funny feeling March isn't going to be all that calm either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 the canadian doesn't look bad for the west metro either. shows a heckuva temp gradient across ecMN; seMN and wWI are drier and warm as expected. anyone have the euro precip maps? Eh, they have shifted E, but it still isn't very impressive for snow. Would start out as a bunch of sleet then change to low ratio snow grain type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Looking at the EURO, it looks REALLY weak compared to earlier runs. Looks like 1000 mb low maybe across E. MN/W.WI I don't think it is much weaker. A farther W track under this configuration does likely mean it intensifies more with a very slight negative tilt, and indeed the strength of the ejecting shortwave over the plains will play a huge part in track changes since there is some weak feedback processes going on here. I think what is really happening is, while it is a tad weaker, it is also pushing through faster as one would expect a slightly weaker solution to do. In other words, you are not seeing the max intensity of the low as it pushes through MN due to the 24 hr chunks. I am sure someone with the ECM paid subscription can confirm, but I would bet it is down close to the GFS which is 995 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 MPX expanded watch a couple counties to the east. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 305 PM CST WED DEC 29 2010 THE SECOND ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE FREEZING RAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF SNOW BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS REMAINING GUSTY.THE WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM LITTLE FALLS...TO LITCHFIELD TO OLIVIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Look at that low level stratus layer creeping N. The entire state of IA is under BR/FG already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 Look at that low level stratus layer creeping N. The entire state of IA is under BR/FG already. I'm under a dense fog advisory until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 I'm under a dense fog advisory until Friday. One of the many downsides of this pattern. 1/4 sm fog is not fun. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 what are everyones thoughts with the trend to the east with this second low, do you see it farther east yet or about as far east as one can expect. I know this is a complete weenie post, but when your renting snowmobiles for a weekend in northern wisconsin i am praying for a little snow fri night and sat to maybe salvage something out of the weekend staying in the mercer wi area. thanks for any information you all provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 what are everyones thoughts with the trend to the east with this second low, do you see it farther east yet or about as far east as one can expect. I know this is a complete weenie post, but when your renting snowmobiles for a weekend in northern wisconsin i am praying for a little snow fri night and sat to maybe salvage something out of the weekend staying in the mercer wi area. thanks for any information you all provide. Hate to say it, but right now Mercer is still in the screwzone. The eastward shift in the comma head/precip shield was due to a slight weakening trend with the ejecting S/W into the plains. Weak positive feedback that the models suggested earlier won;t come into play as much and as a result, the system won't "hook" NNW owing to less positive feedback over the moist baroclinic zone in the plains. Same thing happens with Nor'easters, but of course under far more extreme circumstances. That said, the thermals are mostly the same and and low level baroclinic zone is still in the same general area. For that area, the warm sector holds until this storm occludes, and unfortunately, in these type of systems, the dry slot plows through fast near the occlusion as the surface low briefly stalls. It looks like a sleet/possibly freezing rain mess with a shot at some grainy snow at the very end, but that won't amount to much if anything. Snow unfortunately does not look good at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 29, 2010 Share Posted December 29, 2010 what are everyones thoughts with the trend to the east with this second low, do you see it farther east yet or about as far east as one can expect. I know this is a complete weenie post, but when your renting snowmobiles for a weekend in northern wisconsin i am praying for a little snow fri night and sat to maybe salvage something out of the weekend staying in the mercer wi area. thanks for any information you all provide. Got up to 41 here in Hancock, MI today. I can imagine what the trails look like with everyone in town riding them. But hopefully this coming weekend and into next week we will get some good lake snow to repair the damage. I haven't even got my sled out yet. I ended up getting bad bronchitis that I have been dealing with for the last two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 might get a little interesting around my area with the 1st wave tomorrow...0Z NAM came south with it compared to the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 might get a little interesting around my area with the 1st wave tomorrow...0Z NAM came south with it compared to the previous run. Looks like a big mess full of cold rain and possible sleet with a quick mix to snow grains at the end. Second wave looks like you get your snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Looks like a big mess full of cold rain and possible sleet with a quick mix to snow grains at the end. Second wave looks like you get your snow though. little worried with the snow totals with the 500 & 850 L's tracking west of me though...looking like a dakotas n mn hit with the heavier totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 0Z RGEM much stronger than NAM...has 992 L over the TC's area at 48...SD getting nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 This storm might be more interesting that we thought! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Drizzle here... Took a run and overheated... Not use to this tropical warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Drizzle here... Took a run and overheated... Not use to this tropical warmth lol...drizzle here also, tmp/dwp 35 foggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 0Z RGEM much stronger than NAM...has 992 L over the TC's area at 48...SD getting nailed The GEM has a cold bias with arctic fronts and tends to over-deepen surface lows in the RGEM configuration. Don't expect that intense of a solution verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 The GEM has a cold bias with arctic fronts and tends to over-deepen surface lows in the RGEM configuration. Don't expect that intense of a solution verifying. i didn't know that about the rgem...0Z ukie back west again...995 L just west of the cities at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Minneapolis could be a nightmare. Some of my family is driving out to Omaha... hope they leave sooner rather then later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted December 30, 2010 Share Posted December 30, 2010 Drizzle here... Took a run and overheated... Not use to this tropical warmth it's very eastern Wisconsin-like here right now. Feels good! Fortunately not really warm enough to affect the snowpack with cloudcover and fog. Normal temps will be back Friday though. Right now, looks like a bullseye hit here cancelling my new years plans with relatives.. anything more then 4 or so inches drifts the gravel road to her place closed for the weekend, and gotta work sat night. I'm excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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