New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd

[Derek30]

0Z GGEM still furthest east and gets most of MN but also has came west from the 12Z run.

This winter has been much more exciting than last, that's for sure. Would we be right at our total snowfall for all of last winter already?

I know Winnipeg is likely to break their all time yearly precipitation record with this upcoming event. A few mm of precip short. Going to come right before 2011. Fitting.

[Moneyman]

I actually have a 20 pack of tickets this season. Gonna be so sweet. Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum=

Plus we got Saito who should be a good addition to the pen. Love the moves this off-season.

[baroclinic_instability]

Getting ready for a good event here in southern Manitoba. First band of snow looks to develop Wednesday night and continue through much of Thursday before winding down in the evening. GFS and ECMWF have come into good agreement regarding amounts. Could see between 10 and 20cm here by Thursday night with blizzard conditions possible.

Tricky call regarding precipitation with the second low. I would guess between 5 and 10cm by New Year's morning. There's a lot of big events going on around here for New Years (like everywhere else) and it's going to cause some major travel headaches.

Look forward to posting with you guys a lot more in the future. Great board here!

Welcome, I didn't know we had any folks from your area here.

[prinsburg_wx]

This winter has been much more exciting than last, that's for sure. Would we be right at our total snowfall for all of last winter already?

I know Winnipeg is likely to break their all time yearly precipitation record with this upcoming event. A few mm of precip short. Going to come right before 2011. Fitting.

i'm a few inches short yet from the total of last winter...after the big xmas storm last year my area hardly got squat the rest of the winter.

[baroclinic_instability]

0Z GGEM still furthest east and gets most of MN but also has came west from the 12Z run.

I am betting strongly against the weak CMC/NOGAPS solutions that take this storm E to the point I am not even considering them. ECM/GFS seem about right on...NAM playing catch up.

[Derek30]

Welcome, I didn't know we had any folks from your area here.

Thanks. I've been following the board for a few weeks already. Made the rare post on the old Eastern board but not much. Still trying to learn more and more about the weather.

Doubt there's anyone else from MB on this board. Might have to get some Environment Canada folks to start posting or something

[Derek30]

i'm a few inches short yet from the total of last winter...after the big xmas storm last year my area hardly got squat the rest of the winter.

Yeah, we got around a foot of snow from that Christmas storm last year. Much like you, we got zilch the rest of the way.

Still waiting for a true week-long Arctic outbreak. Might be able to get some more Clipper action after this event!

[baroclinic_instability]

Thanks. I've been following the board for a few weeks already. Made the rare post on the old Eastern board but not much. Still trying to learn more and more about the weather.

Doubt there's anyone else from MB on this board. Might have to get some Environment Canada folks to start posting or something

The Winnipeg folks liked to head into Grand Forks quite often when I was up there in college at UND. Weather wise I will lump you together with the GFK folks, close enough

[MajorLeagueStorms]

This storm will be interesting for me here in Mankato, MN (south central part of the state) - its a tough call right now what kind of precip we will get out of the second storm on Friday into Saturday as we are right on the line...probably a mix but still to early to know for sure...

[jcwxguy]

funny how both the NAM and GFS show rain and or snow for friday in my area but weather channel says partly cloudy with a high of 22

[Moneyman]

:weenie:

[Ajdos]

:weenie:

[Moneyman]

I can go for some hot dogs right now tbh. Maybe I'll go make some. Hot Dogs and pepsi at midnight, nothing better then that.

[Hoosier]

I can go for some hot dogs right now tbh. Maybe I'll go make some. Hot Dogs and pepsi at midnight, nothing better then that.

like we care?

[dilly84]

like we care?

+10000

[msp]

nothing rings in the new year like a dry slot.

i'm curious as to how much these temps and rain/zr will eat at the snow cover when it's this thick. bad part is the instafreeze on friday when all the liquid precip and snow melt ices.

as said before, prins looks nice. the buffalo ridge should get some healthy totals; maybe an inch or two here in the metro?

[FarmerRick]

funny how both the NAM and GFS show rain and or snow for friday in my area but weather channel says partly cloudy with a high of 22

That would be because the weather channel suxs. A lot of good people work there, but I don't know where the heck they get their local forecasts from since the NWS is calling for 80% chance of snow in Lincoln on Friday.

[Chicago WX]

6z NAM total QPF.

[jcwxguy]

That would be because the weather channel suxs. A lot of good people work there, but I don't know where the heck they get their local forecasts from since the NWS is calling for 80% chance of snow in Lincoln on Friday.

they do suck, but they finally did change it to "SNOW" (perhaps they went too far in that direction). Still hoping for a farther southeast track, as it stands right now im worried about sleet really cutting down snow amounts. 06z gfs took a turn towards the nam (showed 3/4" or less of snow each run so far) while 00z gfs showing 8-9" (previous 18z gfs showed 6+ inches). Regardless, this looks like a nice snowstorm for a big chunk of the western and north central states

[michsnowfreak]

Gfs has like 1-2" of snow for Detroit over the next 2 weeks ROFL.. Winter Cancel approaching quickly.

First of all, the GFS gets almost nothing right in a few days time, you are looking at 2 WEEKS! As I recall, about 3 days before our 6" snowstorm people were saying "cold and dry for the next 2 weeks". Plus, 2 weeks from today is not even mid-January in what has been locally predicted as a back-loaded winter. We are running only slightly below average in snowfall, but well above average in snowcover. Oh, and winter cancel is the worst, most overused, weenie phrase thats ever come out of these boards lol.

[michsnowfreak]

6z NAM total QPF.

[Chicago WX]

Yep, although the Euro has been on board for keeping the heaviest rains to the SE of both of us. Hopefully you can retain some of your snow pack from this disaster. Down here we're toast either way.

[michsnowfreak]

Yep, although the Euro has been on board for keeping the heaviest rains to the SE of both of us. Hopefully you can retain some of your snow pack from this disaster. Down here we're toast either way.

You will get warmer but i also believe you have more snowpack. Any idea what the water content is of it? You MIGHT save some.

[Chicago WX]

You will get warmer but i also believe you have more snowpack. Any idea what the water content is of it? You MIGHT save some.

No idea. It's been mainly fluff this December, so I'd imagine it won't hold all that well. We should get close to 60º on Friday...combined with a decent slug of rain...not good. Oh well, it was a good run while it lasted.

[IndySnow]

First of all, the GFS gets almost nothing right in a few days time, you are looking at 2 WEEKS! As I recall, about 3 days before our 6" snowstorm people were saying "cold and dry for the next 2 weeks". Plus, 2 weeks from today is not even mid-January in what has been locally predicted as a back-loaded winter. We are running only slightly below average in snowfall, but well above average in snowcover. Oh, and winter cancel is the worst, most overused, weenie phrase thats ever come out of these boards lol.

Thanks for saying almost everything I was thinking, I know I'm a lurker, but sometimes things just need to be said, well done!

[msp]

the GFS, and to a lesser extent the NAM, paints a hefty snow accum. gradient across the metro--the hastings/monticello snow total spread should be impressive if its solution does pan out. could very well be a situation where small deviations in the LP track will significantly impact what we get here in the sw burbs.

[Hoosier]

No idea. It's been mainly fluff this December, so I'd imagine it won't hold all that well. We should get close to 60º on Friday...combined with a decent slug of rain...not good. Oh well, it was a good run while it lasted.

The 12z NAM has a very strong version here on Friday. We'd be stuck in the mid 40's if it verified verbatim. Given the strong low level southerly flow, this looks a little weird and am not counting on it being that cool. Maybe it's trying to factor in the current snowpack that is not likely to be there by then? Don't really know, but I'll still be surprised if we get to 60.

[prinsburg_wx]

the GFS, and to a lesser extent the NAM, paints a hefty snow accum. gradient across the metro--the hastings/monticello snow total spread should be impressive if its solution does pan out. could very well be a situation where small deviations in the LP track will significantly impact what we get here in the sw burbs.

I think MPX will expand the watch this afternoon...i see FSD added sw mn & buffalo ridge area with a watch recently.

[Hoosier]

Been pretty sunny here today (more than expected I think) which has allowed temps to warm nicely. May alleviate any freezing rain threat at the onset later although the dewpoint is still in the upper 20's.

[mnweather]

Euro appears to have shifted east.