Hoosier Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 18z NAM is pretty close to a fairly significant freezing rain event here late Wednesday into Thursday. Drops over .3 qpf with 2m temps around 33-34. Southeasterly flow is not particularly conducive for maintaining the zr type for an extended period, but the snowpack could play some role in keeping temps a shade cooler initially. Could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 18z NAM is pretty close to a fairly significant freezing rain event here late Wednesday into Thursday. Drops over .3 qpf with 2m temps around 33-34. Southeasterly flow is not particularly conducive for maintaining the zr type for an extended period, but the snowpack could play some role in keeping temps a shade cooler initially. Could be close. For freezing rain I usually look for low dewpoints (sub 30). Will be interesting to see if the models pick up on the snowpack and cool things a bit as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 12z SPC MARS is out finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 18z NAM is pretty close to a fairly significant freezing rain event here late Wednesday into Thursday. Drops over .3 qpf with 2m temps around 33-34. Southeasterly flow is not particularly conducive for maintaining the zr type for an extended period, but the snowpack could play some role in keeping temps a shade cooler initially. Could be close. Yeah I think the effects of the snow pack will be interesting. To boot, it'll be a perfect time for LAF to be 33-34º while everything is glazing/icing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Back from Christmas, hope everyone had a Merry Christmas! I feel totally lost glancing at weather again after not looking at a thing for nearly 4 days, but that said, the 2 wave solution all models have now don't surprise me. ECM hinted at this in the medium range, and if any of those monster GFS solutions would have verified, it would have resulted in one of the largest plains storms in the last 5, maybe 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 18z looks colder for here...850s not nearly as warm...still looks like all rain....a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 ECMWF eliminates the secondary which had been a prior concern. I think GFS will slow down the system slightly and intensify per 18z run. Looks like some zr, dense advection fog, then rain and possible t storms. Wonder how much of the snow will melt and affect temps in this situation as has been mentioned. Going to spend Thurs-Sat. will family in Highland IN for the holiday so will be eager to see what happens in Chi town area. Am thinking of the svr weather event of Jan. 7 2008 in ne IL and se WI and wondering how much warmer we'd be with this incoming system without snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 For freezing rain I usually look for low dewpoints (sub 30). Will be interesting to see if the models pick up on the snowpack and cool things a bit as we get closer. Not too worried about a flat out freezing rain event. Road surfaces will be a bigger worry across much of the northern plains and into the OV as the prolonged deep freeze and general lack of insolation heading up to the event will result in glazed roads real fast even with temps 33-36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Not too worried about a flat out freezing rain event. Road surfaces will be a bigger worry across much of the northern plains and into the OV as the prolonged deep freeze and general lack of insolation heading up to the event will result in glazed roads real fast even with temps 33-36 degrees. I would have to agree and with the event starting Wednesday Night across the Ohio Valley, the lack of sunshine won't help when it comes to any precipitation freezing on roadways. Could get messy for a while before things improve on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 00z NAM has 988 low in eastern CO by Thursday 18z? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 00z NAM has 988 low in eastern CO by Thursday 18z? Really? Looks absolutely identical to the 12Z CMC and it has a weak, junky looking second wave ejecting into the plains. If the 12Z CMC/NAM verify, this will be an epic waste of potential energy for a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 00z NAM has 988 low in eastern CO by Thursday 18z? Really? Same as the 12z Euro. EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 at least I hope we can get some warmer weather for a few days until we go back into this cold boring pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Looking things over the last couple hours, I doubt the GFS verifies with its secondary strong shortwave ejecting into the plains as quickly as it does. All guidance now (NAM/CMC/ECM) show much of the jet energy hanging up back into the intermountain W with a weak secondary shortwave ejecting into the plains. The second wave won't be energetic enough to incite deep cyclogenesis until this thing hauls near the international border/Canada. GFS is trying to eject too much energy too quickly into the plains in this amplified pattern. Almost doesn't even look real. What a waste this storm will eventually be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 crazy tight baroclinic zone on both the GFS/NAM at 84hrs...850mb temps at 9 in KS/MO to -18 coming into northern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Boring little 1004 MB storm on tonights GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Looks like a huge waste of a lot of ingredients. Might be a decent snow for Minnesota again though. The rest of us watch our snows melt away like a slushy in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Kinda nice there is nothing winter to track for a good 10+ days. Much needed break for me and can hopefully find a few windows to ice fish in warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 0Z GEM looks to get down to 989 mb over Lake Superior. Could be snow in MN. with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omahawx Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Oh great, more snow for Minnesota, whats new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Latest DLH AFD mentions wsw possibly being issued for Wed night/Thursday for freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Kinda nice there is nothing winter to track for a good 10+ days. Much needed break for me and can hopefully find a few windows to ice fish in warm weather. That is true. It's been pretty hectic the last 3+ weeks. I guess it will be nice in a way not having to spend so much time online. The pattern looks pretty benign through the first week of Jan. Hopefully we can get the clippers going again, since this immediate area never seems to benefit from southwest flow systems anymore. That's probably why we haven't had an official 12" storm since '99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 ECM looks similar to the GFS except a tad W with a slightly tighter gradient in the cold air. Could eek out a blizzard warning in parts of eastern ND/NW Minn, but the quick movement of this storm and light qpf may limit that. Still, this storm is a bit of a disappointment when it had decent potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Although I guess I can congratulate my alma mater University of North Dakota and the few folks in Grand Forks ND who post on here, they look like a good potential hit with both the first and second waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 at least I hope we can get some warmer weather for a few days until we go back into this cold boring pattern It is the opposite for where I live. When it is warm it is boring and when it is cold we usually at least get lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Latest DLH AFD mentions wsw possibly being issued for Wed night/Thursday for freezing rain. Duluth and freezing rain doesn't mix well. Too many steep hills to slide sideways down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 Looks good for the Rockies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 853 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010 VALID 12Z SAT JAN 01 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 04 2011 CURRENT MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT LONGWAVE AGREEMENT DAYS 3-7 WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION STRENGTHENING WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD TOWARD ONTARIO/QUEBEC...RESULTING IN A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE 00-06Z GFS ARE SUSPICIOUSLY FAST AND OUT OF SYNC WITH OTHER GUIDANCE WITH THE BASE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN MODELING DIFFERENCES CONCERN THE SPLITTING FLOW REACHING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY DAYS 4/5 WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 00-06Z GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (BOTH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS) CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND AT TIMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN. OF PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE IS A SECONDARY CUT-OFF LOW CONSTITUTING THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH STANDS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. THE EXACT POSITION/TIMING OF THE LOW ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD...AND FOR NOW HAVE CHOSEN AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION WHICH CONSIDERS ALL NON-NCEP GUIDANCE...OR ON AVERAGE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN. THUS...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS BLENDED NON-NCEP GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN NOT USED. JAMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 12z GFS has a sub 996 low in NW WI. Gives MN some pretty good snows. 12z GEM has a low in NE. WI it looks like. Goes from N. ILL through NE. WI http://www.meteo.psu...CMC_12z/f84.gif http://www.meteo.psu...CMC_12z/f96.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 28, 2010 Share Posted December 28, 2010 GEM and Euro have both shifted east with the front Friday morning, at least temporarily pushing it east of me. We may not melt quite as much snow as appeared possible a couple days ago. Also, I still haven't seen any model that shows heavy rain around here. The QC nws is still pushing that idea, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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